Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Large hail/damaging winds are main the main threats across
southern/central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. In additional a few
tornadoes are also possible in southern Minnesota into parts of
western Wisconsin.

- Cooler temperatures Friday through mid-next week with frost
potential Saturday and Sunday morning.

This evening and tonight... Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches
are out through this evening. The biggest risk will be along a warm
front moving across southern Minnesota where the tornado watch is in
effect. The forcing from this front as well as the low level shear
in this area will allow for surface based storms with rotation. This
could lead to some supercells with all threats possible. Farther
north including the Twin Cities and Eau Claire will be more of a
severe thunderstorm threat with more of a elevated hailer type of
storm favored. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty right now is
low level moisture as this will be needed to for true surface based
storms and low enough LCLs to make the environment favorable for
tornadoes. Based on what this environment was able to do earlier
today with large hail this threat will continue across the area this
evening. As we approach sunset the severe threat will fade as
instability falls. Unless a linear system can come together and
develop a cold pool that is. Then a wind threat will persist,
although this is most likely to occur in western Wisconsin than in
any part of Minnesota. Rain chances will continue into tonight, with
a chance for some lightning.

Friday through Thursday... Behind the cold front below normal
temperatures will persist into the weekend. We will also dry out as
the low behind this moves into the Great Lakes. As we move deeper
into the weekend there will be a system moving to our south that
could transport enough moisture Saturday night into Sunday morning
for some rain showers. Behind this rain chance high pressure moves
in for the rest of the weekend into early next week. By the middle
of next week another chance for precipitation arrives. With a wide
spread in the models both deterministic and ensembles confidence is
not yet high enough for details yet. With the high moving out we
will also see a return to normal temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Currently, most of the TSTMs are occurring south of KMKT-KMSP-KEAU,
with some isolated between KMKT-KMSP as of 1715z. Confidence remains
low on coverage of TSTM activity this afternoon. However, based on
trends and model guidance, the best area of TSTM will occur near
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU between 21-01z. But, the TSTM in southeast Mn may
affect KEAU before 21z. AMD will be likely due to uncertainties in
the forecast and coverage of TSTM. Otherwise, SHRA become more
apparent along and behind the main frontal passage this evening. MVFR
cigs may develop with the SHRA and cold frontal passage this evening.
LLWS is also possible due to the strong nature of the surface low and
wind shear above the surface.

KMSP...

Confidence is low enough to keep TSTM out of the 18z TAF. However,
best coverage if TSTM develops will occur between 21-01z. Otherwise,
SE winds will shift to the W/NW with the frontal passage this
evening. SHRA is possible overnight with only isolated TSTM at best.
Gusty W winds will develop Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Mon...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
200800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
252 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening
across the entire coverage area. Some of these storms will likely
be severe, particularly across eastern and southern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. Large hail, including hail over 1 inch in
diameter, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are all
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
116 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     HAIL             2 SE MYRTLE             43.54N 93.13W
05/19/2022  M1.50 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL OF VARIOUS SIZES FELL WITH LARGEST
            AROUND THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS WITH TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ053-060>063-WIZ014-023-192115-
Anoka MN-Washington MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-Chisago MN-Polk WI-
St. Croix WI-
331 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hennepin,
southeastern Chisago, Anoka, Washington, Ramsey, northwestern St.
Croix and southwestern Polk Counties through 415 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Spring Lake Park, or 10 miles north of Minneapolis, moving northeast
at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Shoreview, Mounds View and Arden Hills around 335 PM CDT.
  Blaine, Lino Lakes and Vadnais Heights around 340 PM CDT.
  Hugo around 345 PM CDT.
  Forest Lake around 350 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Chisago City,
Scandia, Lindstrom, Osceola, Center City, St. Croix Falls, Taylors
Falls and Dresser.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 130 and 145.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota between mile markers 0 and 5, and
between mile markers 7 and 22.
 U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 163 and 164.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and east central Minnesota...and northwestern and west
central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9239 4490 9349 4523 9356 4522 9353
      4527 9351 4542 9316 4541 9302 4547 9302
      4560 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 237DEG 57KT 4511 9329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
352 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             1 NW FALCON HEIGHTS     45.00N 93.20W
05/19/2022  U1.25 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

0339 PM     HAIL             1 S GOLDEN VALLEY       44.98N 93.38W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0340 PM     HAIL             3 SW MINNEAPOLIS        44.95N 93.30W
05/19/2022  E1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

0342 PM     HAIL             1 ESE MINNEAPOLIS       44.98N 93.25W
05/19/2022  M1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

0345 PM     HAIL             4 NE RICHFIELD          44.93N 93.26W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0345 PM     HAIL             1 NW FALCON HEIGHTS     45.00N 93.20W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0347 PM     HAIL             4 SW FALCON HEIGHTS     44.94N 93.21W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0347 PM     HAIL             4 SE MINNEAPOLIS        44.93N 93.23W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             3 NNW MENDOTA HEIGHTS   44.93N 93.16W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             1 NNE ROSEVILLE         45.02N 93.15W
05/19/2022  M1.25 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
405 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ076-077-192130-
Le Sueur MN-Rice MN-
405 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Le
Sueur and northwestern Rice Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 405 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Le Center, or 20 miles northwest of Faribault, moving northeast at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Montgomery around 410 PM CDT.
  New Prague around 415 PM CDT.
  Lonsdale around 420 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Minnesota.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 9378 4455 9353 4454 9343 4443 9331
      4433 9369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 241DEG 46KT 4441 9366

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dye