Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Twin Cities, MN

339 
WWUS53 KMPX 192300
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

WIC093-192315-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-220519T2315Z/
Pierce WI-
600 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIERCE COUNTY...

At 600 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Plum City, or
15 miles northeast of Red Wing, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Plum City around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Elmwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4463 9228 4468 9234 4475 9235 4482 9213
      4464 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 254DEG 45KT 4468 9228 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ETA

245 
WWUS53 KMPX 192305
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
605 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

WIC093-192315-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0149.000000T0000Z-220519T2315Z/
Pierce WI-
605 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIERCE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4463 9228 4468 9234 4475 9235 4482 9213
      4464 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 254DEG 45KT 4469 9221 

$$

ETA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

KEY MESSAGES:

- Large hail/damaging winds are main the main threats across
southern/central Minnesota into western Wisconsin. In additional a few
tornadoes are also possible in southern Minnesota into parts of
western Wisconsin.

- Cooler temperatures Friday through mid-next week with frost
potential Saturday and Sunday morning.

This evening and tonight... Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches
are out through this evening. The biggest risk will be along a warm
front moving across southern Minnesota where the tornado watch is in
effect. The forcing from this front as well as the low level shear
in this area will allow for surface based storms with rotation. This
could lead to some supercells with all threats possible. Farther
north including the Twin Cities and Eau Claire will be more of a
severe thunderstorm threat with more of a elevated hailer type of
storm favored. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty right now is
low level moisture as this will be needed to for true surface based
storms and low enough LCLs to make the environment favorable for
tornadoes. Based on what this environment was able to do earlier
today with large hail this threat will continue across the area this
evening. As we approach sunset the severe threat will fade as
instability falls. Unless a linear system can come together and
develop a cold pool that is. Then a wind threat will persist,
although this is most likely to occur in western Wisconsin than in
any part of Minnesota. Rain chances will continue into tonight, with
a chance for some lightning.

Friday through Thursday... Behind the cold front below normal
temperatures will persist into the weekend. We will also dry out as
the low behind this moves into the Great Lakes. As we move deeper
into the weekend there will be a system moving to our south that
could transport enough moisture Saturday night into Sunday morning
for some rain showers. Behind this rain chance high pressure moves
in for the rest of the weekend into early next week. By the middle
of next week another chance for precipitation arrives. With a wide
spread in the models both deterministic and ensembles confidence is
not yet high enough for details yet. With the high moving out we
will also see a return to normal temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Currently, most of the TSTMs are occurring south of KMKT-KMSP-KEAU,
with some isolated between KMKT-KMSP as of 1715z. Confidence remains
low on coverage of TSTM activity this afternoon. However, based on
trends and model guidance, the best area of TSTM will occur near
KMSP-KRNH-KEAU between 21-01z. But, the TSTM in southeast Mn may
affect KEAU before 21z. AMD will be likely due to uncertainties in
the forecast and coverage of TSTM. Otherwise, SHRA become more
apparent along and behind the main frontal passage this evening. MVFR
cigs may develop with the SHRA and cold frontal passage this evening.
LLWS is also possible due to the strong nature of the surface low and
wind shear above the surface.

KMSP...

Confidence is low enough to keep TSTM out of the 18z TAF. However,
best coverage if TSTM develops will occur between 21-01z. Otherwise,
SE winds will shift to the W/NW with the frontal passage this
evening. SHRA is possible overnight with only isolated TSTM at best.
Gusty W winds will develop Friday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sat...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Mon...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ044-045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-202115-
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-
Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-
Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are occurring and expected to continue
this evening. Some of these storms will likely be severe with
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is needed.

MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-202115-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-Lac Qui Parle-
Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-
413 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms possible, but severe storms are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
518 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             1 S ST. PAUL            44.94N 93.09W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0433 PM     HAIL             1 NW BALDWIN            44.97N 92.38W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             LAKE ELMO               45.00N 92.91W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

&&

CEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ077-078-192245-
Rice MN-Goodhue MN-
532 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Goodhue
and east central Rice Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported a strong
thunderstorm near Nerstrand, or 7 miles south of Northfield, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported nickle size hail near
         Faribault.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Nerstrand around 535 PM CDT.
  Stanton around 540 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Minnesota.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4430 9318 4436 9322 4451 9298 4437 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 246DEG 41KT 4435 9313

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Dye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ078-WIZ024-192315-
Goodhue MN-Pierce WI-
532 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Goodhue and southeastern Pierce Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Welch, or 11 miles west of Red Wing, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Red Wing around 540 PM CDT.
  Bay City around 550 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Ellsworth, Plum
City and Elmwood.

This includes U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 89 and 104.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4453 9279 4463 9279 4463 9274 4465 9273
      4486 9220 4485 9214 4459 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 249DEG 43KT 4459 9277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             2 S MAPLEWOOD           44.96N 93.03W
05/19/2022  U1.75 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: GOLF BALL (1.75 IN.).

0356 PM     HAIL             3 S MAPLEWOOD           44.95N 93.04W
05/19/2022  M1.75 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

0352 PM     HAIL             1 NW MAPLEWOOD          45.01N 93.04W
05/19/2022  M1.50 INCH       RAMSEY             MN   PUBLIC

0357 PM     HAIL             2 SSE OAKDALE           44.95N 92.95W
05/19/2022  M1.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

0422 PM     HAIL             2 W ROBERTS             44.98N 92.60W
05/19/2022  M1.50 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   PUBLIC

0434 PM     HAIL             2 NE HAMMOND            45.00N 92.41W
05/19/2022  U1.50 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: PING PONG BALL (1.50
            IN.).

0410 PM     HAIL             BIRCHWOOD VILLAGE       45.05N 92.98W
05/19/2022  M1.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

&&