Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
851 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Key Messages:

- Another round of potentially severe storms expected this
evening/tonight, although they will be weakening as they head east.

Storms have been ongoing all day in central Minnesota but are
exiting our CWA currently. A few cells have also gone up in northern
west-central Wisconsin as well which will move northeast out of the
area. A noticeable warm front is moving north through southern
Minnesota with 70s ahead of the front and some lower 90s behind it.
As a strong trough pushes north through the Dakotas, thunderstorms
are expected to break out late this afternoon in eastern South
Dakota and quickly merge into a line that will rapidly move across
the forecast area through midnight or so. With these initial storms
in a very unstable airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates, large
hail is possible but shear is not great and as the storms move east
it looks like an outflow boundary will move out ahead of the storms
as they move into central and eastern Minnesota and the storms should
weaken. The largest threat with these storms will be damaging winds
as they move east, with the biggest threat in western Minnesota with
the threat lessening to the east as the outflow boundary outruns the
storms. Wind Gusts will have the potential to reach 70 MPH or more
in western Minnesota. The outflow boundary and weakening
thunderstorms should reach the west Twin Cities metro around 9 or 10
pm, and by that point wind gusts may only be in the 40-50 MPH range.
There is still a good bit of uncertainty as to how strong the storms
will be as CAMs have been fairly consistent in rapidly weakening the
line of storms just as they reach the vicinity of the metro.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Saturday through Wednesday - The extended will be fairly quiet with
a quasi-zonal upper level flow setting up over the weekend.
Temperatures will trend cooler over the weekend but remain several
degrees above normal before turning closer to average next week. The
most significant  change will be the drier air that settles in
across the region. Model guidance has dew points in the 40s and 50s,
a far cry from the current Summer-like values. The EPS and GEFS
bring a surge of moisture towards the end of the forecast period.
This will bring our next meaningful chance for precip on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Multiple rounds of convection is the primary concern, likely dropping
flight categories to MVFR and potentially IFR. Included with the
storms will be a leading wind-shift line that will swing winds
temporarily from ESE to W as the gust front moves through ahead of
the lines of storms. Gusts in western MN likely to reach 40-60kt with
lesser speeds in eastern MN into western WI. Once the convection ends
and the cold front pushes through, conditions will significantly
improve with westerly winds and clearing skies.

KMSP...Main issue is convection with changing wind directions due to
the gust front. Prevailing SSE winds are expected to quickly shift to
NW with the gust front and increase to around 30G45kt. SHRA/TSRA in a
diminishing fashion will move through eastern MN but cannot rule out
degraded conditions until getting to the early morning hours where
thunderstorms dissipate. Winds will return to SSE overnight ahead of
the actual cold front, the winds will shift to SW and W more
gradually during the day Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15g25kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CEO
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely late this afternoon through
this evening, starting in southwestern Minnesota then spreading
northeast across much of central and eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Severe weather potential is highest in western and central
Minnesota then diminishing going eastward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

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