Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Twin Cities, MN

660 
WWUS53 KMPX 130102
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC003-019-053-085-093-139-141-143-171-130145-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-220513T0145Z/
Hennepin MN-Wright MN-Meeker MN-Sibley MN-Scott MN-Anoka MN-
McLeod MN-Sherburne MN-Carver MN-
802 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR HENNEPIN...WRIGHT...NORTHEASTERN MEEKER...SIBLEY...SCOTT...
WESTERN ANOKA...MCLEOD...SOUTHERN SHERBURNE AND CARVER COUNTIES...

At 802 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Otsego to near Cologne to near Belle Plaine,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Elk River, St. Michael, Big Lake and Albertville around 805 PM 
  CDT.
  Chaska, Chanhassen and Otsego around 810 PM CDT.
  Ramsey, St. Francis and Excelsior around 815 PM CDT.
  Eden Prairie, Shakopee, Andover, Savage and Prior Lake around 820 
  PM CDT.
  Burnsville, Minnetonka, Edina, St. Louis Park and Hopkins around 
  825 PM CDT.
  Lakeville, Richfield, East Bethel and MSP International Airport 
  around 830 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south
central, central and east central Minnesota.

Wind damage with these storms may occur before any rain or 
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4528 9427 4532 9422 4530 9416 4535 9409
      4542 9405 4541 9320 4504 9323 4488 9318
      4481 9325 4479 9333 4454 9328 4455 9391
      4451 9388 4446 9393 4446 9434 4528 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 253DEG 45KT 4530 9367 4479 9374 4456 9374 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

270 
WWUS53 KMPX 130118
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
818 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC093-130126-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-220513T0145Z/
Meeker MN-
818 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MEEKER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south
central, central and east central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4529 9423 4531 9419 4530 9416 4535 9409
      4542 9405 4541 9320 4504 9323 4488 9318
      4481 9325 4479 9333 4454 9328 4455 9391
      4451 9388 4446 9393 4448 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 262DEG 45KT 4532 9342 4481 9349 4458 9349 

$$

MNC003-019-053-085-139-141-143-171-130145-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-220513T0145Z/
Hennepin MN-Wright MN-Sibley MN-Scott MN-Anoka MN-McLeod MN-
Sherburne MN-Carver MN-
818 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR HENNEPIN...WRIGHT...EASTERN SIBLEY...SCOTT...WESTERN ANOKA...
NORTHEASTERN MCLEOD...SOUTHERN SHERBURNE AND CARVER COUNTIES...

At 816 PM CDT, a gust front was located along a line extending from 
near Ramsey to near Eden Prairie to 5 miles northeast of New Prague, 
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

The gust front will be near...  
  Andover, Savage, Ramsey and Anoka around 820 PM CDT.
  Burnsville, Edina, Ham Lake and Elko New Market around 825 PM CDT.
  Lakeville, Richfield, East Bethel and MSP International Airport 
  around 830 PM CDT.
  Bloomington around 835 PM CDT.
  Mendota Heights around 840 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Nowthen, Robbinsdale, Flying Cloud Airport, Cedar, North Minneapolis,
Mall Of America, Helena, Rassat, Marystown and Plato.

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will follow the gust front by up to 30 
minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind damage with these storms will occur before any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south 
central, central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4529 9423 4531 9419 4530 9416 4535 9409
      4542 9405 4541 9320 4504 9323 4488 9318
      4481 9325 4479 9333 4454 9328 4455 9391
      4451 9388 4446 9393 4448 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 262DEG 45KT 4532 9342 4481 9349 4458 9349 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

978 
WWUS53 KMPX 130144
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
844 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC003-019-053-085-139-141-143-171-130154-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-220513T0145Z/
Hennepin MN-Wright MN-Sibley MN-Scott MN-Anoka MN-McLeod MN-
Sherburne MN-Carver MN-
844 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HENNEPIN...WRIGHT...EASTERN
SIBLEY...SCOTT...WESTERN ANOKA...NORTHEASTERN MCLEOD...SOUTHERN
SHERBURNE AND CARVER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT...
    
The gust front which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty 
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for south
central, central and east central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4529 9423 4531 9419 4530 9416 4535 9409
      4542 9405 4541 9320 4504 9323 4488 9318
      4481 9325 4479 9333 4454 9328 4455 9391
      4451 9388 4446 9393 4448 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 262DEG 45KT 4536 9298 4485 9305 4462 9305 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
332 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Key Messages:

- Another round of potentially severe storms expected this
evening/tonight, although they will be weakening as they head east.

Storms have been ongoing all day in central Minnesota but are
exiting our CWA currently. A few cells have also gone up in northern
west-central Wisconsin as well which will move northeast out of the
area. A noticeable warm front is moving north through southern
Minnesota with 70s ahead of the front and some lower 90s behind it.
As a strong trough pushes north through the Dakotas, thunderstorms
are expected to break out late this afternoon in eastern South
Dakota and quickly merge into a line that will rapidly move across
the forecast area through midnight or so. With these initial storms
in a very unstable airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates, large
hail is possible but shear is not great and as the storms move east
it looks like an outflow boundary will move out ahead of the storms
as they move into central and eastern Minnesota and the storms should
weaken. The largest threat with these storms will be damaging winds
as they move east, with the biggest threat in western Minnesota with
the threat lessening to the east as the outflow boundary outruns the
storms. Wind Gusts will have the potential to reach 70 MPH or more
in western Minnesota. The outflow boundary and weakening
thunderstorms should reach the west Twin Cities metro around 9 or 10
pm, and by that point wind gusts may only be in the 40-50 MPH range.
There is still a good bit of uncertainty as to how strong the storms
will be as CAMs have been fairly consistent in rapidly weakening the
line of storms just as they reach the vicinity of the metro.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Saturday through Wednesday - The extended will be fairly quiet with
a quasi-zonal upper level flow setting up over the weekend.
Temperatures will trend cooler over the weekend but remain several
degrees above normal before turning closer to average next week. The
most significant  change will be the drier air that settles in
across the region. Model guidance has dew points in the 40s and 50s,
a far cry from the current Summer-like values. The EPS and GEFS
bring a surge of moisture towards the end of the forecast period.
This will bring our next meaningful chance for precip on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Thunderstorms in central Minnesota will continue moving off to the
northeast leaving terminals dry through the afternoon and early
evening. Another strong line of thunderstorms will move into western
Minnesota around 8 PM and head eastward, but as it does it will be
weakening. It looks like a gust front will form and race ahead of the
showers, and we will watch for this development which could bring
stronger winds across the area. After the initial stronger storms
pass there may be a few hours of -SHRA/-TSRA before we begin to clear
out. Winds will be mainly from the east ahead of a warm front moving
northward through the region, then become SE behind the front with
gusts into the 20s.

KMSP...Currently looks like the best chance for thunderstorms at the
terminal comes around 10 pm as a weakening line of storms moves
across. It is questionable how strong the storms will be at that
time, but it looks like a gust front will move out ahead of the
storms and may bring some gusty winds to around 40 MPH, but
confidence is not great. There could be a brief break in activity
after the initial storms, but then it looks like a few hours of
-shra/-tsra coming in behind.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15g25kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...DPH
SHORT TERM...CEO
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...CEO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely late this afternoon through
this evening, starting in southwestern Minnesota then spreading
northeast across much of central and eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Severe weather potential is highest in western and central
Minnesota then diminishing going eastward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
724 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GARFIELD                45.94N 95.49W
05/12/2022                   DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN, SEMI TIPPED OVER.

&&

PEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
730 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     RICHMOND                45.45N 94.52W
05/12/2022  M70 MPH          STEARNS            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED FROM STEARNS COUNTY EM.

&&

PEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
731 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE BELGRADE          45.43N 94.93W
05/12/2022  M63 MPH          STEARNS            MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MN043 BELGRADE 3ESE.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
732 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW ALEXANDRIA         45.87N 95.40W
05/12/2022  M72 MPH          DOUGLAS            MN   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KAXN ALEXANDRIA MN ASOS.

&&

CTG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
736 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW ALEXANDRIA        45.87N 95.40W
05/12/2022  M72 MPH          DOUGLAS            MN   ASOS

            MEASURED AT ALEXANDRIA AIRPORT.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
743 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NE WAITE PARK         45.57N 94.20W
05/12/2022                   STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD 3
            MILES NW OF VETERANS DRIVE AND CO RD 120.

&&

RMD