Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Twin Cities, MN

407 
WWUS53 KMPX 130223
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
923 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC127-173-130232-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-220513T0230Z/
Redwood MN-Yellow Medicine MN-
923 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN REDWOOD AND YELLOW
MEDICINE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central,
southwestern and west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4481 9599 4481 9585 4489 9585 4489 9575
      4493 9573 4491 9572 4491 9568 4479 9550
      4478 9553 4477 9551 4469 9532 4466 9529
      4467 9525 4455 9503 4438 9559 4463 9561
      4464 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 214DEG 53KT 4479 9556 

$$

Dye

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
851 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Key Messages:

- Another round of potentially severe storms expected this
evening/tonight, although they will be weakening as they head east.

Storms have been ongoing all day in central Minnesota but are
exiting our CWA currently. A few cells have also gone up in northern
west-central Wisconsin as well which will move northeast out of the
area. A noticeable warm front is moving north through southern
Minnesota with 70s ahead of the front and some lower 90s behind it.
As a strong trough pushes north through the Dakotas, thunderstorms
are expected to break out late this afternoon in eastern South
Dakota and quickly merge into a line that will rapidly move across
the forecast area through midnight or so. With these initial storms
in a very unstable airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates, large
hail is possible but shear is not great and as the storms move east
it looks like an outflow boundary will move out ahead of the storms
as they move into central and eastern Minnesota and the storms should
weaken. The largest threat with these storms will be damaging winds
as they move east, with the biggest threat in western Minnesota with
the threat lessening to the east as the outflow boundary outruns the
storms. Wind Gusts will have the potential to reach 70 MPH or more
in western Minnesota. The outflow boundary and weakening
thunderstorms should reach the west Twin Cities metro around 9 or 10
pm, and by that point wind gusts may only be in the 40-50 MPH range.
There is still a good bit of uncertainty as to how strong the storms
will be as CAMs have been fairly consistent in rapidly weakening the
line of storms just as they reach the vicinity of the metro.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Saturday through Wednesday - The extended will be fairly quiet with
a quasi-zonal upper level flow setting up over the weekend.
Temperatures will trend cooler over the weekend but remain several
degrees above normal before turning closer to average next week. The
most significant  change will be the drier air that settles in
across the region. Model guidance has dew points in the 40s and 50s,
a far cry from the current Summer-like values. The EPS and GEFS
bring a surge of moisture towards the end of the forecast period.
This will bring our next meaningful chance for precip on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Multiple rounds of convection is the primary concern, likely dropping
flight categories to MVFR and potentially IFR. Included with the
storms will be a leading wind-shift line that will swing winds
temporarily from ESE to W as the gust front moves through ahead of
the lines of storms. Gusts in western MN likely to reach 40-60kt with
lesser speeds in eastern MN into western WI. Once the convection ends
and the cold front pushes through, conditions will significantly
improve with westerly winds and clearing skies.

KMSP...Main issue is convection with changing wind directions due to
the gust front. Prevailing SSE winds are expected to quickly shift to
NW with the gust front and increase to around 30G45kt. SHRA/TSRA in a
diminishing fashion will move through eastern MN but cannot rule out
degraded conditions until getting to the early morning hours where
thunderstorms dissipate. Winds will return to SSE overnight ahead of
the actual cold front, the winds will shift to SW and W more
gradually during the day Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15g25kts.
SUN...VFR. Chc PM -SHRA/MVFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CEO
LONG TERM...BPH
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131500-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
425 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely late this afternoon through
this evening, starting in southwestern Minnesota then spreading
northeast across much of central and eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats, though a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Severe weather potential is highest in western and central
Minnesota then diminishing going eastward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
835 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

MNC097-130300-
Morrison-
835 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Morrison...

* Until 1000 PM CDT.

* At 834 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
  heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause small stream
  flooding in the area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  Little Falls, Pierz, Royalton, Randall, Lastrup, Camp Ripley,
  Morrill, Buckman, Sobieski, Harding, Genola and Camp Ripley
  Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4616 9398 4582 9394 4582 9439 4614 9458

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
838 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHOKIO                  45.57N 96.17W
05/12/2022                   STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM
            CHOKIO. SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE
            REPORTED TO THE CITY OF CHOKIO INCLUDING
            POWER POLES SNAPPED AT BASE, LIVE WIRES, 3.5
            FEET IN CIRCUMFERENCE TREES SNAPPED AND ON
            HOUSES.

&&

PEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
848 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BLOMKEST           44.96N 94.99W
05/12/2022                   KANDIYOHI          MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL ***
            GRAIN BIN FELL ON AN OCCUPIED CAR, RESULTING
            IN A FATALITY.

&&

PEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
851 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     CRYSTAL AIRPORT         45.06N 93.35W
05/12/2022  M58 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   ASOS

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
852 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARLOS                  45.97N 95.29W
05/12/2022                   DOUGLAS            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN. CALLER NOTED GARAGE
            DOOR WAS BLOWN IN/DAMAGED TOO. TIME
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

BPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
853 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE ALBERTA            45.56N 96.02W
05/12/2022                   STEVENS            MN   STORM CHASER

            LARGE STORAGE SHED DESTROYED. LARGE TREE
            DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MKM