Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS St. Louis, MO

804 
WWUS53 KLSX 192219
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
519 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MOC099-187-192228-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-220519T2245Z/
Jefferson MO-St. Francois MO-
519 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
EASTERN ST. FRANCOIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT
for southwestern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3843 8996 3796 8959 3782 8968 3785 8974
      3785 8979 3788 8980 3791 8984 3787 8990
      3787 8994 3785 8996 3781 9001 3833 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 235DEG 51KT 3840 9004 3783 8989 

$$

ILC133-157-163-MOC186-192245-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-220519T2245Z/
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Ste. Genevieve MO-
519 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MONROE...RANDOLPH...SOUTH CENTRAL ST. CLAIR AND EAST
CENTRAL STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTIES...

At 518 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Smithton to near St. Mary, moving northeast at 60
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Smithton around 525 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Steeleville and Percy.

This also includes Felix Valle House State Park.
 
This includes Interstate 55 in Missouri between exits 141 and 143.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT
for southwestern Illinois.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 8996 3796 8959 3782 8968 3785 8974
      3785 8979 3788 8980 3791 8984 3787 8990
      3787 8994 3785 8996 3781 9001 3833 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 235DEG 51KT 3840 9004 3783 8989 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Maples

750 
WWUS53 KLSX 192242
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
542 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

ILC133-157-163-MOC186-192251-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-220519T2245Z/
Monroe IL-Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Ste. Genevieve MO-
542 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MONROE...RANDOLPH...
SOUTH CENTRAL ST. CLAIR AND EAST CENTRAL STE. GENEVIEVE COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT
for southwestern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3843 8996 3796 8959 3782 8968 3785 8974
      3785 8979 3788 8980 3791 8984 3787 8990
      3787 8994 3785 8996 3781 9001 3833 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 235DEG 51KT 3858 8971 3801 8956 

$$

Maples

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
233 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MCV will track east across the southern portion of the forecast
area early this evening. Destabilization ahead of it and locally
enhanced low level and overall shear will promote the possibility
of supercells with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
large hail. This should exit to the east around 7PM with the
remainder of the night being quiet. We remain in a humid air mass
overnight, so lows will only be around 70 or so.

Hot and humid conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures
approaching 90 degrees. A cold front will move into the northwest
part of the area during the afternoon with a shift to northwest
winds and a drop in temperature expected. Although the air mass
ahead of the front will be highly unstable, a strong capping
inversion will make it very difficult to trigger any thunderstorms
along the front Friday afternoon and evening. Friday evening and
overnight, though, there may be a zone of shower and thunderstorm
activity along and behind the front as the surface front undercuts
the warm, moist air mass. Storms in this environment will be
elevated and primarily be a threat for hail and heavy rainfall.
Overall coverage should increase toward Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough tracks through the southwest flow aloft.

Kimble

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The front makes a slow push southeast through the area on
Saturday, with the southeast part of our forecast area remaining
in the warm and humid air, reaching 80+ degrees again. Further to
the north, though, clouds, rain, and cooler air will keep
temperatures in the 60s. It's possible that depending on the
slowness of the progression of the surface front and how quickly
the warm nose aloft erodes, we could see surface based
thunderstorms develop ahead of the front on Saturday in the
southern part of the area. If this occurs, they instability and
shear available will be supportive of strong to severe storms.
Again this threat would be pretty conditional on all the right
ingredients lining up. At any rate most of the area should see
rainfall on Saturday into Saturday night as the next wave moves
through and gives the front one final shove to the southeast.

For Sunday we will be entirely post frontal, and despite the
return of sunshine as the day goes on we will only warm into the
60s. Much drier air will also be in place, bringing a break from
the early season humidity.

Expect a gradual warm up Monday into Tuesday as high pressure
shifts east and a return flow brings warmer and more humid air
back into the area. The next trough sets up in the Plains on
Tuesday and will bring our next chance of rainfall. It's unclear
whether we'll get enough instability for strong to severe storms,
but it's always something to watch this time of year. Models
diverge in the long range on how to handle the trough in the
Plains. The GFS continues to show the trough cutting off over the
Southern Plains and bringing multiple days of showers and storms
to the region. Meanwhile most other models keep this trough
progressive and don't even really hint at a cut off scenario,
transitioning us to a dry northwest flow aloft rather quickly. The
GFS solution may be influenced by a good deal of convection
generated as the trough is digging into Texas Tuesday evening
which in turn leads to a deeper trough and a more likely cut off
scenario. Generally see this as less likely and have allowed the
NBM to drive the forecast in this time range.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Primary focus of the TAF is on timing of thunderstorm activity
this evening. Uncertainty exists as to how far north it will
develop and whether it will impact the St Louis area terminals. If
it does so, it is likely between 21 and 00Z. After this, we expect
light winds and VFR conditions overnight. Flow becomes mostly
southerly on Friday with VFR continuing.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
244 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
244 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the northern part of the area Friday
night, with this threat shifting slowly southward through the day
Saturday. The stronger storms could contain large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this afternoon.

Kimble

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     CUBA                    38.06N 91.40W
05/19/2022  M54 MPH          CRAWFORD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
440 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W UNION               38.45N 91.05W
05/19/2022                   FRANKLIN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND
            HIGHWAY AJ. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE BEAUFORT           38.41N 91.18W
05/19/2022                   FRANKLIN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE AND TREE DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY 185
            IN BEAUFORT.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELLEVIEW               37.68N 90.75W
05/19/2022  E40 MPH          IRON               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
453 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW PARKWAY           38.32N 91.03W
05/19/2022                   FRANKLIN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ONTO A HOUSE.

&&

JPG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
459 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DESLOGE                 37.87N 90.51W
05/19/2022                   ST. FRANCOIS       MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF OF A TREE FELL. TREE WAS ABOUT 10
            INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

LSJ