Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 19, 2022Reynolds County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 19, 2022, 5:00 PM CDT for Reynolds County, Missouri. It was in force for 11 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2022, 5:00 PM CDT (22:00 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2022, 5:11 PM CDT
In force: 11 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Reynolds County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 168 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 19, 12:51 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 267 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1924 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -68 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1026 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

085 
WUUS53 KLSX 192200
SVRLSX
MOC179-192245-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0069.220519T2200Z-220519T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
500 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Reynolds County in southeastern Missouri...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 459 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ellington,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southeastern Reynolds County.

This also includes Clearwater Lake Recreational Area.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 9096 3727 9096 3727 9074 3721 9073
      3720 9074 3717 9074 3717 9075 3714 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 267DEG 36KT 3718 9104 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Maples

1 follow-up statement

670 
WWUS53 KLSX 192211
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
511 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MOC179-192221-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-220519T2245Z/
Reynolds MO-
511 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN REYNOLDS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3713 9096 3727 9096 3727 9074 3721 9073
      3720 9074 3717 9074 3717 9075 3714 9076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 267DEG 36KT 3719 9089 

$$

Maples

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 19, 2:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 2:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
233 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MCV will track east across the southern portion of the forecast
area early this evening. Destabilization ahead of it and locally
enhanced low level and overall shear will promote the possibility
of supercells with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
large hail. This should exit to the east around 7PM with the
remainder of the night being quiet. We remain in a humid air mass
overnight, so lows will only be around 70 or so.

Hot and humid conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures
approaching 90 degrees. A cold front will move into the northwest
part of the area during the afternoon with a shift to northwest
winds and a drop in temperature expected. Although the air mass
ahead of the front will be highly unstable, a strong capping
inversion will make it very difficult to trigger any thunderstorms
along the front Friday afternoon and evening. Friday evening and
overnight, though, there may be a zone of shower and thunderstorm
activity along and behind the front as the surface front undercuts
the warm, moist air mass. Storms in this environment will be
elevated and primarily be a threat for hail and heavy rainfall.
Overall coverage should increase toward Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough tracks through the southwest flow aloft.

Kimble

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The front makes a slow push southeast through the area on
Saturday, with the southeast part of our forecast area remaining
in the warm and humid air, reaching 80+ degrees again. Further to
the north, though, clouds, rain, and cooler air will keep
temperatures in the 60s. It's possible that depending on the
slowness of the progression of the surface front and how quickly
the warm nose aloft erodes, we could see surface based
thunderstorms develop ahead of the front on Saturday in the
southern part of the area. If this occurs, they instability and
shear available will be supportive of strong to severe storms.
Again this threat would be pretty conditional on all the right
ingredients lining up. At any rate most of the area should see
rainfall on Saturday into Saturday night as the next wave moves
through and gives the front one final shove to the southeast.

For Sunday we will be entirely post frontal, and despite the
return of sunshine as the day goes on we will only warm into the
60s. Much drier air will also be in place, bringing a break from
the early season humidity.

Expect a gradual warm up Monday into Tuesday as high pressure
shifts east and a return flow brings warmer and more humid air
back into the area. The next trough sets up in the Plains on
Tuesday and will bring our next chance of rainfall. It's unclear
whether we'll get enough instability for strong to severe storms,
but it's always something to watch this time of year. Models
diverge in the long range on how to handle the trough in the
Plains. The GFS continues to show the trough cutting off over the
Southern Plains and bringing multiple days of showers and storms
to the region. Meanwhile most other models keep this trough
progressive and don't even really hint at a cut off scenario,
transitioning us to a dry northwest flow aloft rather quickly. The
GFS solution may be influenced by a good deal of convection
generated as the trough is digging into Texas Tuesday evening
which in turn leads to a deeper trough and a more likely cut off
scenario. Generally see this as less likely and have allowed the
NBM to drive the forecast in this time range.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Primary focus of the TAF is on timing of thunderstorm activity
this evening. Uncertainty exists as to how far north it will
develop and whether it will impact the St Louis area terminals. If
it does so, it is likely between 21 and 00Z. After this, we expect
light winds and VFR conditions overnight. Flow becomes mostly
southerly on Friday with VFR continuing.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 2:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
244 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
244 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the northern part of the area Friday
night, with this threat shifting slowly southward through the day
Saturday. The stronger storms could contain large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this afternoon.

Kimble

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 19, 3:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     CUBA                    38.06N 91.40W
05/19/2022  M54 MPH          CRAWFORD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 4:40 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
440 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W UNION               38.45N 91.05W
05/19/2022                   FRANKLIN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND
            HIGHWAY AJ. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 4:41 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
441 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE BEAUFORT           38.41N 91.18W
05/19/2022                   FRANKLIN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE AND TREE DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY 185
            IN BEAUFORT.

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 4:50 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
450 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELLEVIEW               37.68N 90.75W
05/19/2022  E40 MPH          IRON               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 4:53 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
453 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW PARKWAY           38.32N 91.03W
05/19/2022                   FRANKLIN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ONTO A HOUSE.

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 4:59 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
459 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DESLOGE                 37.87N 90.51W
05/19/2022                   ST. FRANCOIS       MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF OF A TREE FELL. TREE WAS ABOUT 10
            INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

LSJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 19, 9:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Osage	30 min
May 19, 10:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Gasconade	38 min
May 19, 11:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren	45 min
May 19, 11:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	38 min
May 19, 11:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	38 min
May 19, 2:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford	41 min
May 19, 3:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Crawford, Iron, Reynolds, Washington	54 min
May 19, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Crawford, Washington	50 min
May 19, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson	34 min
May 19, 4:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Washington	41 min
May 19, 4:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Franklin	36 min
May 19, 4:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Reynolds	44 min
May 19, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren, City of Saint Louis	52 min
May 19, 4:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	35 min
May 19, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	39 min
May 19, 5:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	29 min
May 19, 5:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	26 min
May 19, 5:44 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	3 hr
May 19, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2022 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.