Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2022

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 19, 2022Crawford County, Franklin County, Washington County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 19, 2022, 4:04 PM CDT for Crawford County, Franklin County, Washington County, Missouri. It was in force for 41 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2022, 4:04 PM CDT (21:04 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2022, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Damage threat: Considerable
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Washington County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 19, 4:16 PM CDT	TORNADO	4 Wsw Parkway, MO	BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON ANACONDA ROAD, TRAVELED NORTH/NORTHEAST CROSSING I-44. THE TORNADO PRODUCED TREE DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE ROUTE WW.
May 19, 4:21 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	1 Se Beaufort, MO	POWER POLE AND TREE DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY 185 IN BEAUFORT.
May 19, 4:21 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	3 Wsw Parkway, MO	TREE ONTO A HOUSE.
May 19, 4:24 PM CDT	TORNADO	2 Wsw Noser Mill, MO	NWS STORM SURVEY FOUND AN EF1 TORNADO WITH EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ALONG/NEAR HAAG AND LITTLE CREEK ROADS.
May 19, 4:26 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 W Union, MO	POWER LINE DAMAGE NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND HIGHWAY AJ. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 17 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 19, 12:51 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 286 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1924 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -68 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1026 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

586 
WUUS53 KLSX 192104
SVRLSX
MOC055-071-221-192145-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0067.220519T2104Z-220519T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
404 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Crawford County in east central Missouri...
  Northwestern Washington County in east central Missouri...
  Franklin County in east central Missouri...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 403 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Sullivan to 9 miles southeast of Anthonies 
  Mill, moving northeast at 60 mph. This storm is associated with a 
  bowing line, in addition to other individual cells running ahead 
  of the main line.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to 
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Richwoods around 415 PM CDT.
  St. Clair and Parkway around 420 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include
Lonedell, Villa Ridge, Pacific and Gray Summit.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 218 and 257.
 
This also includes Robertsville State Park and Meramec State Park.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9137 3831 9136 3851 9116 3849 9074
      3842 9074 3821 9078 3815 9073 3812 9140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 231DEG 52KT 3819 9120 3801 9095 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Maples

1 follow-up statement

334 
WWUS53 KLSX 192147
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
447 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MOC055-071-221-192156-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-220519T2145Z/
Crawford MO-Washington MO-Franklin MO-
447 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for east central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3821 9137 3831 9136 3851 9116 3849 9074
      3842 9074 3821 9078 3815 9073 3812 9140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 231DEG 52KT 3852 9068 3834 9043 

$$

Britt

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 19, 2:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 2:33 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
233 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MCV will track east across the southern portion of the forecast
area early this evening. Destabilization ahead of it and locally
enhanced low level and overall shear will promote the possibility
of supercells with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and
large hail. This should exit to the east around 7PM with the
remainder of the night being quiet. We remain in a humid air mass
overnight, so lows will only be around 70 or so.

Hot and humid conditions are expected on Friday with temperatures
approaching 90 degrees. A cold front will move into the northwest
part of the area during the afternoon with a shift to northwest
winds and a drop in temperature expected. Although the air mass
ahead of the front will be highly unstable, a strong capping
inversion will make it very difficult to trigger any thunderstorms
along the front Friday afternoon and evening. Friday evening and
overnight, though, there may be a zone of shower and thunderstorm
activity along and behind the front as the surface front undercuts
the warm, moist air mass. Storms in this environment will be
elevated and primarily be a threat for hail and heavy rainfall.
Overall coverage should increase toward Saturday morning as a
shortwave trough tracks through the southwest flow aloft.

Kimble

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The front makes a slow push southeast through the area on
Saturday, with the southeast part of our forecast area remaining
in the warm and humid air, reaching 80+ degrees again. Further to
the north, though, clouds, rain, and cooler air will keep
temperatures in the 60s. It's possible that depending on the
slowness of the progression of the surface front and how quickly
the warm nose aloft erodes, we could see surface based
thunderstorms develop ahead of the front on Saturday in the
southern part of the area. If this occurs, they instability and
shear available will be supportive of strong to severe storms.
Again this threat would be pretty conditional on all the right
ingredients lining up. At any rate most of the area should see
rainfall on Saturday into Saturday night as the next wave moves
through and gives the front one final shove to the southeast.

For Sunday we will be entirely post frontal, and despite the
return of sunshine as the day goes on we will only warm into the
60s. Much drier air will also be in place, bringing a break from
the early season humidity.

Expect a gradual warm up Monday into Tuesday as high pressure
shifts east and a return flow brings warmer and more humid air
back into the area. The next trough sets up in the Plains on
Tuesday and will bring our next chance of rainfall. It's unclear
whether we'll get enough instability for strong to severe storms,
but it's always something to watch this time of year. Models
diverge in the long range on how to handle the trough in the
Plains. The GFS continues to show the trough cutting off over the
Southern Plains and bringing multiple days of showers and storms
to the region. Meanwhile most other models keep this trough
progressive and don't even really hint at a cut off scenario,
transitioning us to a dry northwest flow aloft rather quickly. The
GFS solution may be influenced by a good deal of convection
generated as the trough is digging into Texas Tuesday evening
which in turn leads to a deeper trough and a more likely cut off
scenario. Generally see this as less likely and have allowed the
NBM to drive the forecast in this time range.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Primary focus of the TAF is on timing of thunderstorm activity
this evening. Uncertainty exists as to how far north it will
develop and whether it will impact the St Louis area terminals. If
it does so, it is likely between 21 and 00Z. After this, we expect
light winds and VFR conditions overnight. Flow becomes mostly
southerly on Friday with VFR continuing.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 2:44 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
244 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-201945-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
244 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across southeast Missouri and southwest
Illinois this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances return to the northern part of the area Friday
night, with this threat shifting slowly southward through the day
Saturday. The stronger storms could contain large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through this afternoon.

Kimble

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 19, 2:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
214 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE PACIFIC            38.51N 90.72W
05/19/2022                   ST. LOUIS          MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON MODEL REALTY RD.

&&

LSJ

Local storm report, May 19, 2:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
236 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW CLARKSON VALLEY   38.62N 90.62W
05/19/2022                   ST. LOUIS          MO   PUBLIC

            PHOTO ON SOCIAL MEDIA SHOWS A TREE DOWN
            ACROSS STRECKER RD.

&&

AE

Local storm report, May 19, 2:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
255 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     HAIL             6 SW STEELVILLE         37.90N 91.42W
05/19/2022  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED 6SW OF STEELVILLE.

&&

LSJ

Local storm report, May 19, 3:09 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
309 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             CUBA                    38.07N 91.40W
05/19/2022  E0.88 INCH       CRAWFORD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 3:47 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
347 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     STEELVILLE              37.97N 91.36W
05/19/2022  M44 MPH          CRAWFORD           MO   MESONET

            MISSOURI MESONET.

&&

JPG

Local storm report, May 19, 3:55 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     CUBA                    38.06N 91.40W
05/19/2022  M54 MPH          CRAWFORD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPG

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 19, 9:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Osage	30 min
May 19, 10:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Gasconade	38 min
May 19, 11:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren	45 min
May 19, 11:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	38 min
May 19, 11:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	38 min
May 19, 2:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford	41 min
May 19, 3:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Crawford, Iron, Reynolds, Washington	54 min
May 19, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	LSX	Crawford, Washington	50 min
May 19, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson	34 min
May 19, 4:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Franklin	36 min
May 19, 4:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Reynolds	44 min
May 19, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren, City of Saint Louis	52 min
May 19, 4:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	35 min
May 19, 5:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Reynolds	11 min
May 19, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	39 min
May 19, 5:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	29 min
May 19, 5:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis	26 min
May 19, 5:44 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	3 hr
May 19, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Saint Charles	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2022 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.