Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
651 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

The primary forecast issue today is the chance of thunderstorms and
severe weather. The latest guidance is generally in good agreement
tracking the MCV currently located in SC KS across southeast MO
and southwest IL this afternoon and evening. The MCV will be the
catalyst promoting scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across
southeast and east-central MO and southwest IL as it interacts
with what should be a very unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/KG) and
weakly capped air mass. Deep layer shear on the order of 30-40
kts would favored an organized severe weather threat, and
enhancement of the low level shear with 0-3km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2
would suggest the severe threat includes supercells and organized
multicells. While there is some variance in the timing and
coverage of storms with the CAMS, a number of solutions include
updraft helicity tracks and supercell structures. The large amount
of buoyancy and steep mid level lapse rates would suggest large
hail is a significant threat and forecast hodographs depict a
decent amount of low level curvature to support a threat of a few
tornadoes as well. Otherwise gusty southerly winds and very warm
temperatures with highs in the 80s are expected today.

Present thinking is that storms will have exited the area by 02z
tonight and the remainder of tonight will be tranquil. Flow aloft
will begin backing to more southwesterly with heights aloft
weakly rising in response to a positively tilted long wave upper
trof digging into the Great Basin.

The primary cold front and associated precipitation continues to
be the big item Friday through Saturday night. The deterministic
and ensemble guidance continues to show some key differences in
the speed and southward advancement of the front late Friday into
Saturday. The best clustering would bring the front into NE MO
and WC IL on Friday afternoon. It still looks like a very warm day
ahead of the cold front with good southwesterly low level flow,
and I expect highs well into the 80s and in the lower 90s in metro
St. Louis.

Little has changed with respect to my thoughts on surface-based
storms initiating along the advancing cold front despite very
unstable conditions. The odds look very low and not likely as all
the guidance is showing considerable CIN/capping owing partly to
rising mid level heights in the southwest flow aloft. As such we
are not messaging any severe weather threat. If there is any
precipitation through sunset it will probably be showers found in
the post-frontal cool air across northeast MO and west central
IL.

Glass

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

There is even more variance in the cold front position Friday night
into Saturday morning with some of the guidance waving the front
back north Friday night and then sinking it south on Saturday, or
sinking it south Friday night and then waving it north on Saturday
morning. Within the post-frontal air mass beginning Friday night and
continuing into Saturday there should be an uptick in the coverage
of precipitation, generally focused in the vicinity of the 850 mb
front where convergence is greatest and frontogenetical forcing will
be present. Besides showers in the cool air, sufficient elevated
instability will be present to support post-frontal embedded
thunderstorms. As discussed yesterday, there will be a noticeable
contrast in temperatures on Saturday spanning the cold front, and
the uncertainty in the exact position of the front is reflected in
some of the point NBM high temperature guidance which shows 12-20+
degree spread from the upper to lower quartile. Highs behind the
front will be markedly cooler, and as much as 10-15 degrees below
normal.

Despite the differences in position and motion of the front
through Saturday, there is good agreement in the models that the
cold front will move southward through the entire CWA on Saturday
night. This is in response to the short wave trof moving from the
Great Basin into the upper Mississippi Valley and resultant height
falls spreading into the region. This contribution of large scale
forcing to the already present frontogenetic forcing will result
in widespread and heavier post-frontal rain as well.

It still appears that rain should come to an end across the area by
early Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will then dominate
Sunday into Monday with high pressure building in on Sunday, and
then slowly retreating on Monday. Dry, less humid, and cooler
weather featuring below normal temperatures will prevail these
days.

After the weekend precipitation, the next good threat of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms will be in the Tuesday-Wednesday period
associated with a migratory trof moving from the Plains into the MS
Valley.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Fog that is currently going on at any of the terminals should
dissipate by 13z. A complex of showers and storms currently in SW
MO will move east-northeast this morning and weaken but may bring
a brief period of showers or thunderstorms into KCOU and KJEF
between 15-16z. Otherwise showers and storms are expected to
develop from central MO into east central MO and west central IL
this afternoon and will impact KCOU and KJEF and the St. Louis
terminals. I currently have MVFR flight conditions with this
afternoon/early evening activity, however if more intense
thunderstorms directly impact the terminals then IFR flight
conditions accompanied by gusty winds are possible. All the shower
and thunderstorms should be east of all the terminals by 01z
tonight with VFR flight conditions thereafter.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
405 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-200915-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
405 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some
of the storms across southeast and east central Missouri and
southwest Illinois will be severe capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across parts of the area Friday
night through Saturday night, and again on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening
across portions of southeast and east central Missouri and southwest
Illinois.

Glass