Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Jackson, KY

820 
WWUS53 KJKL 012212
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
512 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC013-051-095-121-131-012230-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-220101T2230Z/
Harlan KY-Bell KY-Knox KY-Leslie KY-Clay KY-
512 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EST
FOR WEST CENTRAL HARLAN...NORTHEASTERN BELL...NORTHEASTERN KNOX...
SOUTHWESTERN LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

At 512 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Skidmore, or 15
miles southeast of Manchester, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Roark around 515 PM EST.
  Essie around 520 PM EST.
  Asher around 525 PM EST.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for southeastern
Kentucky.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3688 8377 3705 8377 3716 8342 3690 8334
      3682 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 251DEG 47KT 3700 8356 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

GEERTSON

232 
WWUS53 KJKL 012228
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
528 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC013-051-095-121-131-012235-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-220101T2230Z/
Harlan KY-Bell KY-Knox KY-Leslie KY-Clay KY-
528 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL HARLAN...
NORTHEASTERN BELL...NORTHEASTERN KNOX...SOUTHWESTERN LESLIE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM EST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the 
Northeastern Bell, Northeastern Knox, and Southeastern Clay 
counties; therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire in those 
counties. A new warning has been issued for Northern Harlan and 
Southwestern Leslie counties until 600 PM

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for southeastern
Kentucky.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
for Northern Harlan and Southwestern Leslie counties until 600 PM.

LAT...LON 3688 8377 3705 8377 3716 8342 3690 8334
      3682 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 251DEG 47KT 3705 8338 

$$

GEERTSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
326 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued 317 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

The second wave of showers and embedded thunderstorms have moved
in along the cold front through the day. Thankfully, most
locations that saw significant rainfall from earlier today have
had a break in the action. The latest higher resolution model
guidance suggests perhaps a more progressive round of showers for
these locations, and much of the stratiform precipitation shield
has only been yielding light to moderate rainfall rates upstream.
Despite the limited instability of 100-250 J/kg of MU CAPE in
place, some cells further north closer to the boundary have been
taking advantage of the strong environmental wind field. The
damaging wind threat should diminish over the next hour or so, as
the more stable air works in from the northwest. Further to the
south, a lingering damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will
linger through the early evening hours, where slightly better
instability and low level shear is in place. Updates have been
sent.

UPDATE Issued at 900 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

Just cleaned up the grids post tornado watch. Still enough
activity around for most places to be categorical for PoPs. Have
also updated to include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td
grids. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with freshened issuances of the ZFP, SAF, and HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 545 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

10Z sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary front nearby with a
wave of low pressure passing by to the north. This has lead to a
steady flow of warm and moist air into eastern Kentucky with the
boundary acting as a local focusing mechanism amid large scale
ascent. As a result, a train of cells, some with lightning, are
rolling over much of eastern Kentucky with heavy rain and the
potential for rotation given the high shear environment. A
tornado watch is in effect for western portions of the Cumberland
Valley for likelihood of better organized cells there. A flash
flood watch is in effect for the entire CWA with a long flood
advisory and smaller flash flood warnings currently active.
Temperatures in this situation are ridiculously warm for the start
of January in Kentucky - ranging from the upper 60s in the south
to the upper 50s in the north while dewpoints vary similarly from
the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. Winds have been variable
with times of light readings but also a propensity for southwest
breezes of 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.

The models are pretty good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a broad full latitude
trough quickly moving into the High Plains today. This large
scale feature then tightens considerably over the Southern Plains
tonight - prolonging the deep layer southwest flow through
Kentucky to its downstream. The core of this feature then digs
through Dixie Alley and brings its axis of mid level energy into
Kentucky by 00Z Monday as more significant height falls arrive.
The GFS and NAM are most similar with this evolution and the
strength of the pattern compared to the ECMWF but those
differences are minimal over Kentucky. Accordingly, have favored
the blended NBM as the starting point for the grids, though with
considerable contribution from the CAMs consensus guidance for
PoPs and QPF in the near term.

Sensible weather will feature a very active period to start the new
year with flooding rains, gusty winds, and potential severe weather
today giving way to falling temperatures and colder conditions on
Sunday and snow that night. The flooding rains threat will linger
into tonight as the train of showers and storms continue with
only a small shift north then back south through the next 24
hours. It does appear that a wave will develop on the larger
system's front lingering the heavy rain and flooding potential
well into tonight. Very mild conditions linger south of the main
front today with record highs likely - despite the heavy rain and
storms around. The HRRR shows some higher wind gusts making it to
the surface from late morning into this afternoon across a good
portion of the Cumberland Valley with the higher terrain nearer to
Virginia also under the gun. Accordingly, have issued an SPS
addressing this concern, though the flooding rains remain the
chief worry through the short term forecast.

the main adjustments to the forecast from the NBM were to beef up
the PoPs and QPF through today and also to blend with the 90
percentile winds for higher sustained speeds and gusts this
afternoon more similar to the HRRR predictions. Temperatures
where only edited for spot specific values.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

The upper level and surface low will move off the Mid Atlantic coast
Monday morning bringing an end to the snow showers across E/SE KY.
High pressure will then be in control from late Monday through at
least early Wednesday. A cold front associated with a surface low
passing well to the north will cross the area late in the day on
Wednesday. Then attention will turn to the next system which will
impact the area Thursday into Friday. A shortwave moving out of the
Pacific NW will move into the middle part of the country by Thursday
afternoon. Meanwhile, surface low pressure will form along the
frontal boundary to our south and advance to the Mid Atlantic coast
overnight Thursday into early Friday. Global models are in fairly
good agreement that wraparound moisture will result in snow showers
across eastern KY late Thursday through early Friday. Too early to
speculate on any accumulations at this point but will keep
monitoring trends over the coming days.

Temps will be on a bit of a roller coaster this week, with Monday
starting off chilly with highs in the middle 30s, and then highs
warming to the upper 40s/lower 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will
then be a cold end to the work week with afternoon highs in the 30s
Thursday and upper 20s to lower 30s on Friday, with overnight lows
Thursday and Friday night in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

IFR ceilings/visibilities, along with widespread showers, some
heavy at times, will spread southeast across the area through this
evening. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible,
mainly along a line from KSYM to KSME. The rains will taper off
from northwest to southeast overnight, with IFR ceilings remaining
in place. Surface winds of 10 to 15 kt, with gusts of 15 to 30
kts at times, will veer from the southwest to northwest as the
boundary passes through this evening. The stronger wind gusts will
occur at KSME and KLOZ. Any passing thunderstorms could contain
wind gusts in excess of 40 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106>109-111-112-114.

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ084>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
219 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-022230-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, and Salyersville
219 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through tonight,
with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely. Isolated
higher amounts are possible. Flooding will likely occur in
locations which receive the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms today and tonight,
some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 40 mph will occur from late this
morning to early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Some light accumulating snow will be possible Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to call in any reports of severe weather
and flooding.

KYZ084>088-113-115>118-022230-
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, and Whitesburg
219 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through tonight,
with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely. Isolated
higher amounts are possible. Flooding will likely occur in
locations which receive the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms today and tonight,
some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 40 mph will occur from late this
morning to early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Some light accumulating snow will be possible Sunday night,
though the highest spots in far eastern Kentucky could pick up an
inch or so.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged pass on any severe or flood reports to the
National Weather Service through tonight.

KYZ110-119-120-022230-
Floyd-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Inez,
Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
219 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through tonight,
with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely. Isolated
higher amounts are possible. Flooding will likely occur in
locations which receive the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms today and tonight,
some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 40 mph will occur from late this
morning to early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Some light accumulating snow will be possible Sunday night,
though the highest spots in far eastern Kentucky could pick up an
inch or so.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged pass on any severe or flood reports to the
National Weather Service through tonight.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083-111-112-114-022230-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-
Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Beattyville, Jackson,
and Booneville
219 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 4 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through tonight,
with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely. Isolated
higher amounts are possible. Flooding will likely occur in
locations which receive the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms today and tonight,
some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 40 mph will occur from late this
morning to early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Some light accumulating snow will be possible Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to call in any reports of severe weather
and flooding.

CMF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
418 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ084>086-012145-
McCreary KY-Whitley KY-Knox KY-
418 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Knox,
central McCreary and central Whitley Counties through 445 PM EST...

At 418 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Duckrun, or near Whitley City, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bounty around 425 PM EST.
  Redbird, Krupp, Goldbug, Clio, Bon, Emlyn and Youngs Creek around
  430 PM EST.
  Williamsburg, Wofford, Rockholds, Suttons Mill, Walden, Yaden,
  Julip, Lucky, Faber and Verne around 435 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Perkins, Louden,
Wilton, Woodbine, Permon, Swan Lake, Dishman Springs, Clate, Indian
Creek, King, Swanpond, Bryants Store, Gausdale and Emmanuel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for south central
and southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 8451 3678 8455 3695 8395 3673 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 252DEG 48KT 3673 8439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEERTSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE BOBTOWN           37.23N 84.52W
01/01/2022                   PULASKI            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            EPPERSON ROAD IS IMPASSIBLE.

&&

TAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     FLOOD            DABNEY                  37.18N 84.55W
01/01/2022                   PULASKI            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            EAST HWY 635 AND HWY 39 ARE UNDER WATER.

&&

TAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE SOMERSET          37.09N 84.60W
01/01/2022                   PULASKI            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            POMPASS ROAD IS IMPASSIBLE.

&&

TAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
433 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ109-110-119-120-012200-
Martin KY-Floyd KY-Pike KY-Magoffin KY-
433 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Martin,
Floyd, northwestern Pike and southeastern Magoffin Counties through
500 PM EST...

At 432 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Langley, or 10 miles south of Prestonsburg, moving northeast at 65
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Justell, Betsy Layne, Harold, Boldman and Corn Fork Hollow around
  440 PM EST.
  Pikeville, Coal Run Village, Gulnare, McCombs, Endicott and Coal
  Run around 445 PM EST.
  Jarad, Piso, Heenan, Varney, Threeforks, Moree, Meta, McClure and
  Pleasant around 450 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Conder, Heisey,
Rural, Hatfield Station, Laura, Sidney, Canada, Coalpoint, Pilgrim,
Forest Hills, Whitepost, Turkey Creek, Belfry, Oppy and Hardy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for southeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 8276 3743 8279 3741 8281 3743 8283
      3746 8283 3747 8286 3761 8296 3782 8240
      3776 8233 3776 8231 3774 8233 3770 8230
      3767 8230 3765 8223 3762 8221 3763 8219
      3765 8218 3763 8218 3762 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 245DEG 57KT 3754 8279

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
437 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ113-115>117-012200-
Clay KY-Perry KY-Knott KY-Leslie KY-
437 PM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Leslie, southeastern
Perry, southwestern Knott and southeastern Clay Counties through 500
PM EST...

At 436 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Sizerock to near Brightshade. Movement was east
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Kaliopi, Thousandsticks, Sizerock, Hosea, Bobs Fork, Jacks Creek
  and Bear Branch around 440 PM EST.
  Hyden, Toulouse, Dryhill, Wooton and Marcum around 445 PM EST.
  Essie, Avawam and Frew around 450 PM EST.
  Hazard, Hoskinston, Asher, Bulan, Stinnett, Diablock, Chappell,
  Mozelle, Wendover and Jeff around 455 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Hindman, Vicco,
Cordia, Causey, Ritchie, Cutshin, Cinda, Elic, Big Fork and Smilax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EST for southeastern
Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 8373 3722 8356 3736 8294 3702 8316
      3698 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 255DEG 50KT 3721 8350 3699 8369

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GEERTSON