Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2022

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Jackson, KY

January 1, 20225 counties in Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this flash flood warning at Jan 1, 2022, 5:01 AM EST for 5 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 7 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 1, 2022, 5:01 AM EST (10:01 UTC)
Expired
Jan 1, 2022, 12:00 PM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, KY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Clay County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 1, 11:00 AM ESTFLOOD1 Ene Sextons Creek, KYCLAY COUNTY 911 CALL CENTER REPORTED MUDSLIDE ALONG HIGHWAY 1350 ABOUT 5 1/2 MILES UP.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2022-01-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2022-01-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 547 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
908 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
547 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
585 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

359 
WGUS53 KJKL 011001
FFWJKL
KYC051-125-131-189-193-011200-
/O.NEW.KJKL.FF.W.0002.220101T1001Z-220101T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson KY
501 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Laurel County in south central Kentucky...
  Northern Clay County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Southeastern Owsley County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Perry County in southeastern Kentucky...

* Until 700 AM EST.

* At 501 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  London, Buckhorn, Treadway, Burning Springs, Sacker Gap, Fall 
  Rock, Laurel Creek, Chestnutburg, Mill Pond, Bernice, Malcomb, 
  Sextons Creek, Sidell, Tanksley, Thomas, Felty, Ammie, 
  Shepherdtown, Wild Cat and Grace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8427 3717 8429 3726 8403 3725 8390
      3730 8388 3738 8355 3737 8355 3735 8354
      3734 8355 3733 8354 3734 8350 3738 8348
      3738 8345 3734 8341 3734 8338 3735 8337
      3736 8337 3727 8332

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GREIF
4 follow-up statements
572 
WGUS53 KJKL 011146
FFWJKL
KYC051-125-131-189-193-011400-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220101T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson KY
646 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Laurel County in south central Kentucky...
  Northern Clay County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Southeastern Owsley County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Perry County in southeastern Kentucky...

* Until 900 AM EST.

* At 646 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of 
  rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  London, Buckhorn, Treadway, Burning Springs, Sacker Gap, Fall 
  Rock, Laurel Creek, Chestnutburg, Mill Pond, Bernice, Malcomb, 
  Sextons Creek, Sidell, Tanksley, Thomas, Felty, Ammie, 
  Shepherdtown, Wild Cat and Grace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8427 3717 8429 3726 8403 3725 8390
      3730 8388 3738 8355 3737 8355 3735 8354
      3734 8355 3733 8354 3734 8350 3738 8348
      3738 8345 3734 8341 3734 8338 3735 8337
      3736 8337 3727 8332

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GREIF
301 
WGUS53 KJKL 011347
FFWJKL
KYC051-125-131-189-193-011600-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220101T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson KY
847 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Laurel County in south central Kentucky...
  Northern Clay County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Southeastern Owsley County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Perry County in southeastern Kentucky...

* Until 1100 AM EST.

* At 847 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  London, Buckhorn, Treadway, Burning Springs, Sacker Gap, Fall 
  Rock, Laurel Creek, Chestnutburg, Mill Pond, Bernice, Malcomb, 
  Sextons Creek, Sidell, Tanksley, Thomas, Felty, Ammie, 
  Shepherdtown, Wild Cat and Grace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8427 3717 8429 3726 8403 3725 8390
      3730 8388 3738 8355 3737 8355 3735 8354
      3734 8355 3733 8354 3734 8350 3738 8348
      3738 8345 3734 8341 3734 8338 3735 8337
      3736 8337 3727 8332

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

RAY
131 
WGUS53 KJKL 011550
FFWJKL
KYC051-125-131-189-193-011700-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220101T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1050 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

The National Weather Service in Jackson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Laurel County in south central Kentucky...
  Northern Clay County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Southeastern Owsley County in southeastern Kentucky...
  Northwestern Perry County in southeastern Kentucky...

* Until noon EST.

* At 1050 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible 
  in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  London, Buckhorn, Treadway, Burning Springs, Sacker Gap, Fall 
  Rock, Laurel Creek, Chestnutburg, Mill Pond, Bernice, Malcomb, 
  Sextons Creek, Sidell, Tanksley, Thomas, Felty, Ammie, 
  Shepherdtown, Wild Cat and Grace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8427 3717 8429 3726 8403 3725 8390
      3730 8388 3738 8355 3735 8354 3734 8355
      3733 8354 3734 8350 3738 8348 3738 8345
      3734 8341 3734 8338 3735 8337 3736 8337
      3727 8332

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

RAY
939 
WGUS73 KJKL 011657
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1157 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYC051-125-131-189-193-011707-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220101T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clay KY-Laurel KY-Leslie KY-Owsley KY-Perry KY-
1157 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY FOR CENTRAL 
LAUREL, NORTHERN CLAY, NORTHWESTERN LESLIE, SOUTHEASTERN OWSLEY AND 
NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTIES...

Flash flooding has come to an end, but general flooding continues 
across the area. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM EST Sunday for 
portions of east central Kentucky, northeast Kentucky, south central 
Kentucky and southeast Kentucky.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EST Sunday for portions 
of northeast Kentucky, south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3711 8427 3717 8429 3726 8403 3725 8390
      3730 8388 3738 8355 3735 8354 3734 8355
      3733 8354 3734 8350 3738 8348 3738 8345
      3734 8341 3734 8338 3735 8337 3736 8337
      3727 8332

$$

RAY

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jan 1, 1:35 AM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 1, 1:35 AM EST, 3 hours 26 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
135 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

Active night and 36 hours across Kentucky with a tornado watch
until 8 am added to the flash flood watch. The thoughts remain
that more activity develops and moves into eastern Kentucky
through the rest of the night along the wavy boundary laying west
to east through the JKL CWA - per radar trends and latest CAMs
guidance including UH swaths. This boundary will be the focusing
mechanism for heavy rain and storms with strong shear in place
meaning a potential for damaging winds and rotating storms. Have
updated the forecast for the watch and latest obs and trends.
These grid adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with the WCN, and updated ZFP/HWO for the watch.

UPDATE Issued at 1020 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021

Overall no major changes to the forecast. Starting to see some
embedded thunderstorms over central KY. Forecast soundings show a
shallow inversion near the surface right now which will cap any
severe threat for a few hours, but eventually that cap will erode
and any stronger cells overnight will have the ability to bring
those stronger winds down to the surface. Updates sent to NDFD and
web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021

Only minor tweaks to the grids with this update. With the CAM's
still not in full agreement, didn't mess with Pops for later this
evening, and will watch and see how convection develops to our
west over the coming hours. Updates sent to NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 559 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021

The latest upper level map features a seasonably strong
subtropical ridge centered across western Cuba. Meanwhile, deep
troughing is centered from Hudson Bay down through the northern
Great Basin and then southward through Baja California. Fast west
southwest flow is found in between these aforementioned features,
aligning from the eastern Pacific through the Eastern Seaboard. At
the surface, a stationary frontal boundary is positioned from New
England through the Ohio Valley and across the middle Mississippi
Valley/southern Plains and through the central Rockies. Broad low
pressure is found from the Midwest through the southern Plains,
before congealing into a more concentrated center near the front
range in southeastern Colorado. A secondary warm front is analyzed
from the Deep South through the lower Mississippi Valley. Yet
another pre-frontal surface trough/warm front associated with an
advancing low level jet nose is moving northward. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have been persistent with this
boundary as it crossed eastern Kentucky today, with the
consolidated activity having now exited northeastern Kentucky.
Highs today have ranged from the low to mid 60s.

The western trough will gradually advance eastward through the
period, maintaining a positive tilt. An embedded more intense
short wave trough, currently rotating across southern Arizona,
will become absorbed into the flow as it cruises east northeast
through the middle Mississippi Valley and eventually into the Ohio
Valley late tonight into Saturday. This will escort anomalously
high PWATs into an axis from the Arklatex region through the Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will tighten up across
the Ohio Valley, with traversing areas of low pressure advancing
along the boundary as it very gradually shifts southeast towards
the Appalachians late in the period, bringing heavy rainfall to
eastern Kentucky. On top of the heavy rains, there is also a
potential for severe weather from near I-75 and westward late
Saturday afternoon into the evening hours.

A mostly quiet evening is expected across eastern Kentucky to
begin the period; however, as deeper moisture advects in ahead of
an advancing warm front to our south, showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected. While an embedded stronger
thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out, any more organized
threat looks to remain to our southwest. The CAMs have also been
showing the potential for some convective training across the
Tennessee/Kentucky border as the boundary slows/stalls for a while
during the pre-dawn hours and into daybreak Saturday. The
synoptic models are less supportive of this idea, maintaining a
more progressive boundary, and quite a bit less rainfall across
our south. Given the increased CAM support and pretty consistent
signal from many HRRR runs following the 12z run from this morning,
have allowed for the slower frontal progression idea. Given this
potential, as well as the main slug of moisture to move through
later Saturday evening, have added the rest of the counties into a
Flood Watch.

Overall, the heaviest rainfall totals continue to be around the
I-64 corridor, with upwards of 3 inches, as the baroclinic zone
stalls the longest towards the Bluegrass, coincident with the
longer residence time of the very high PWATs that will be in
place. Depending upon upstream convective trends, a more organized
severe threat may also unfold late in the day Saturday, as bowing
segments organize upstream and attempt to hold together as they
advance towards the I-75 corridor. This will be a high shear/low
CAPE environment, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, but
isolated QLCS tornadoes can not be ruled out, given the favorable
low level shear in place. Outside the thunderstorms, southwest
winds will become breezy southeast of the heavier rain axis, with
gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially if some of thicker
clouds relent in the wake of the boundary setting up further to
the north. The rains will gradually taper off from northwest to
southeast Saturday night, with winds veering more towards the west
closer to dawn Sunday morning. Temperatures will continue to
average way above normal into 2022, with lows tonight ranging from
55 to 60 degrees, and highs ranging from the mid 60s north of
I-64, to the lower 70s across southeastern Kentucky for New Year's
Day. Temperatures will then drop off late Saturday night behind
the departing cold front, ranging from the low to mid 40s across
our far northwest, to the mid 50s across the far southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 422 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2021

Models appear to be handling the larger scale synoptic pattern well
this cycle and are showing fairly good agreement through the
extended. However, as would be expected, there are differences in
the details of surface features which will have an impact on
sensible weather. Aloft, a significant trough will pass from the
Great Plains across the Deep South Sunday through Monday, causing a
wave of surface low pressure to develop on the tail end of a frontal
boundary that will be pushing through the Piedmont. This low will
pass through the Southern Appalachians as colder air is pouring into
eastern Kentucky behind an exiting storm system. Evolution and
timing of events suggest there will be a transition from light rain,
or possibly drizzle to snow late Sunday or Sunday evening into
Monday morning. After an extended period of temperatures running
well above normal, ground temperatures will hardly be cold enough
to support more significant accumulations, especially at the lower
elevations. With respect to accumulations, current thinking is that
the bulk of any snow to be realized mainly on grassy areas. Roads
should remain in good shape though some bridges and overpasses could
develop some slick spots, but it is still a bit early to know full
impacts if any...stay tuned.

Shortwave energy will pass through the Midwest by Wednesday, but
moisture will be lacking for this mid/upper level disturbance.
Consequently, at this time, little if any impacts are expected
other than some isolated rain showers. A more significant trough
will dig into central and eastern portions of the CONUS behind
this disturbance, bringing a better chance of precipitation to
the area for the latter portion of the upcoming work week. At this
time, indications are that a surface low will pass northeast
through the Tenn Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Current
solutions have this surface low passing just to our northwest,
close enough that colder air will be drawn into the area quick
enough to convert any lingering precipitation (wrap around
moisture) from rain to snow before ending, providing a second
opportunity of some light snow for the week. As is typically the
case, the exact track of the surface low (again, currently
expected just to our west-northwest) will determine our sensible
weather with respect to potential snow totals. Also, a relatively
warm ground again will act to reduce overall accumulations, if
any. Storm tracks are so important in the winter that we can be
guaranteed that the forecast will change between now and the end
of the extended.

Temperatures are expected to average above normal through the
period, though they will be much closer to normal or even below
normal Monday, and possibly again on Friday. Sunday will likely be
our warmest day (mid 50s to around 60), but temperatures will be
dropping through the day as colder air pours into the coal fields.
Monday will only see highs in the mid 30s, but Friday could wind
up being a bit colder with current forecast highs in the low to
mid 30s. PoPs will be highest during the period Sunday afternoon
and evening (60-90%), but likely PoPs Thu-Fri will probably
increase as we get closer to the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST SAT JAN 1 2022

Mostly MVFR ceilings start the 06Z TAF period with poor flying
conditions expected through Saturday as periods of moderate to
heavy rain from showers and storms moving across the forecast
area. Ceilings will eventually drop to IFR by the early morning
hours of Saturday before probably slowly improving to MVFR
throughout the day. Visibilities will also be reduced at times,
especially during periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Southwesterly winds will be 5-10 kts through early Saturday
morning, increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-30 kts during
the afternoon and early evening. Wind shear will be possible at
times, but was left out of the TAFs as much of it will be
translated to the sfc with the heavier showers and storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083-104-106>109-111-112-114.

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ084>088-110-113-115>120.

&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...CMF/GREIF
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 1, 1:05 AM EST, 3 hours 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
105 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>109-111-112-020915-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, and Jackson
105 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected overnight
tonight, along with a possibility of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through Saturday
night, with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely.
Isolated higher amounts are possible. Flooding may occur in
locations which receive the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night, some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance may be requested tonight through Saturday
night.

KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120-020915-
Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard,
Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City,
Pikeville, and South Williamson
105 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible overnight
tonight, along with a possibility of thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible Saturday, but
are more likely Saturday night, with widespread total rainfall
amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches forecast. Isolated higher amounts
cannot be ruled out. Flooding may occur in locations which receive
the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night, some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance may be requested tonight through Saturday
night.

KYZ084>086-116-020915-
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Clay-
Including the cities of Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, and Manchester
105 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rounds of thunderstorms will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to
the area overnight. Some of these storms could become severe with
damaging wind gusts the main threat, though a tornado or two will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible Saturday, but
are more likely Saturday night, with widespread total rainfall
amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches forecast. Isolated higher amounts
cannot be ruled out. Flooding may occur in locations which receive
the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night, some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged pass on any severe or flood reports to the
National Weather Service through Saturday night.

KYZ068-069-079-080-083-114-020915-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-Owsley-
Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, and Booneville
105 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 2 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rounds of thunderstorms will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to
the area overnight. Some of these storms could become severe with
damaging wind gusts the main threat, though a tornado or two will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected through Saturday
night, with widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts likely.
Isolated higher amounts are possible. Flooding may occur in
locations which receive the heaviest rainfall.

There is also a potential for thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday
night, some of which could contain damaging wind gusts. Isolated
tornadoes can not be ruled out. Outside of thunderstorms, breezy
southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph will occur Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged pass on any severe or flood reports to
the National Weather Service through Saturday night.

HAL/GREIF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 31, 11:15 PM EST, 5 hours 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1115 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021

KYZ044-051-052-010500-
Rowan KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
1115 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bath,
Fleming and north central Rowan Counties through MIDNIGHT EST...

At 1114 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Muses Mills to near Bethel.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Oakley around 1125 PM EST.
  Flemingsburg, Poplar Plains and Hillsboro around 1130 PM EST.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Goddard,
Wallingford, Muses Mills and Plummers Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 8358 3840 8348 3838 8345 3840 8341
      3834 8337 3817 8398 3820 8397 3832 8384
      3836 8388 3835 8390 3837 8390 3836 8392
      3841 8393 3849 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 262DEG 39KT 3843 8349 3832 8391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FISHER
Special weather statement, Dec 31, 11:56 PM EST, 5 hours 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021

KYZ044-052-104-010530-
Rowan KY-Elliott KY-Fleming KY-
1156 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Fleming, central Rowan and northwestern Elliott Counties through 1230
AM EST...

At 1156 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hilda, or near Morehead, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hays Crossing and Munson around 1200 AM EST.
  Morehead, Triplett, Cranston, Waltz, Gates, Rodburn and Christy
  around 1205 AM EST.
  Haldeman and Vale around 1210 AM EST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8333 3821 8330 3821 8329 3820 8327
      3821 8322 3824 8322 3825 8318 3827 8318
      3823 8312 3822 8309 3815 8358 3832 8364
      3839 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0456Z 254DEG 40KT 3826 8352

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GREIF
Special weather statement, Jan 1, 4:31 AM EST, 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
431 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ058-068-069-079-011015-
Jackson KY-Estill KY-Rockcastle KY-Pulaski KY-
431 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Estill,
north central Pulaski, Jackson and Rockcastle Counties through 515 AM
EST...

At 430 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Bee Lick, or 13 miles east of Liberty, moving east at
55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bee Lick and Bandy around 440 AM EST.
  Indian Lakes Park, Gum Sulphur, Ottowa, Quail, Spiro, Bromo,
  Willailla and Wabp around 445 AM EST.
  Hiatt, Lake Linville, Renfro Valley, Maretburg and Wellhope around
  450 AM EST.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Mount Vernon,
Boone, Wildie, Roundstone, Hummel, Muellersville, Conway, Orlando,
Snider, Dudley Station, Climax, Threelinks, Goochland, Bummer,
Johnetta, Disputanta, Cooksburg, Morrill, Robinet, Donaro, Eglon,
Clover Bottom, Kerby Knob, Loam, Shirley, Dango, Waneta, Sandgap,
Collingsworth, Brazil, Hurley, Hisel, Alcorn, Shop Branch, Locust
Branch, McKee, Foxtown, Lakes, Wind Cave, Macedonia, Turkey Foot, New
Zion, Blanton Flats, Bradshaw and Gray Hawk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EST for south central
and southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 8456 3733 8451 3734 8450 3748 8444
      3747 8438 3754 8434 3751 8427 3752 8420
      3756 8416 3757 8409 3761 8411 3764 8399
      3737 8383 3733 8411 3734 8412 3732 8414
      3723 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 254DEG 49KT 3735 8469

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GREIF
Special weather statement, Jan 1, 4:35 AM EST, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-113-115>118-120-012200-
Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-
Bell-Harlan-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester,
Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
435 AM EST Sat Jan 1 2022

...Strong Wind Gusts Possible Late This Morning and Afternoon...

A potent weather system is moving through the area and this will
likely bring some strong wind gusts to portions of eastern
Kentucky from late this morning into the afternoon. Look for wind
gusts as high as 40 mph to affect a good portion of the
Cumberland Valley during as well as over the higher terrain
nearer the Virginia border. Additional gusty winds will be
possible with any thunderstorm throughout the day and into the
evening.

GREIF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 31, 11:15 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLFleming45 min
Dec 31, 11:56 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLRowan34 min
Jan 1, 3:47 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLBreathitt, Clay, Floyd, Knott, Laurel, Leslie and 2 more5 hr
Jan 1, 4:17 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningJKLBreathitt, Floyd, Knott, Perry8 hr
Jan 1, 4:31 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJackson, Rockcastle44 min
Jan 1, 5:10 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJackson, Rockcastle50 min
Jan 1, 5:12 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLEstill, Jackson, Lee, Rockcastle6 hr
Jan 1, 5:49 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJackson, Rockcastle41 min
Jan 1, 5:52 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBreathitt, Floyd38 min
Jan 1, 5:54 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLJackson, Pulaski, Rockcastle36 min
Jan 1, 5:58 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLBreathitt, Clay, Jackson, Knott, Laurel, Lee and 3 more4 hr
Jan 1, 6:06 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLFloyd, Pike4 hr
Jan 1, 6:08 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningJKLBreathitt, Clay, Jackson, Lee, Owsley, Perry5 hr
Jan 1, 6:18 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningJKLJackson, Rockcastle5 hr
Jan 1, 6:26 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJackson, Owsley49 min
Jan 1, 6:28 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLFloyd, Pike47 min
Jan 1, 6:43 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLFloyd, Pike32 min
Jan 1, 6:47 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLPulaski, Rockcastle43 min
Jan 1, 6:52 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLJackson, Laurel, Pulaski, Rockcastle4 hr
Jan 1, 6:57 AM ESTTornado WarningJKLPulaski33 min
Jan 1, 7:22 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatJKLLaurel, Pulaski, Rockcastle39 min
Jan 1, 7:25 AM ESTTornado WarningJKLLaurel, Pulaski, Rockcastle20 min
Jan 1, 7:42 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike48 min
Jan 1, 7:45 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningJKLJackson, Laurel, Pulaski, Rockcastle5 hr
Jan 1, 7:51 AM ESTFlash Flood WarningJKLBreathitt, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin, Martin, Pike4 hr
Jan 1, 7:51 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLClay, Jackson, Laurel, Owsley, Rockcastle39 min
Jan 1, 8:29 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike31 min
Jan 1, 8:57 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike18 min
Jan 1, 9:18 AM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryJKLFloyd, Knott, Letcher, Perry, Pike117 min
Jan 1, 10:31 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningJKLOwsley28 hr
Jan 1, 10:31 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningJKLLee45 hr
Jan 1, 10:31 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningJKLEstill3 days
Jan 1, 11:07 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningJKLBreathitt, Floyd, Knott, Leslie, Magoffin, Perry and 1 more23 hr
Jan 1, 11:17 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningJKLClay, Estill, Jackson, Laurel, Lee, Owsley and 4 more23 hr
Jan 1, 11:17 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningJKLEstill, Powell61 hr
Jan 1, 1:18 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBath, Fleming, Montgomery, Rowan42 min
Jan 1, 2:10 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLMenifee35 min
Jan 1, 2:19 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLMenifee, Powell, Wolfe41 min
Jan 1, 2:23 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBath, Menifee, Morgan, Rowan37 min
Jan 1, 2:28 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPulaski47 min
Jan 1, 2:40 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLMenifee, Morgan, Powell, Wolfe35 min
Jan 1, 2:49 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLElliott26 min
Jan 1, 3:02 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLElliott, Johnson, Martin, Morgan28 min
Jan 1, 3:05 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLLaurel25 min
Jan 1, 3:09 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLJackson36 min
Jan 1, 3:13 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLPulaski, Wayne32 min
Jan 1, 3:29 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLOwsley31 min
Jan 1, 3:40 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLLaurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne, Whitley35 min
Jan 1, 3:44 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLMcCreary31 min
Jan 1, 3:59 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLKnott31 min
Jan 1, 4:09 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLClay, Jackson, Knox, Laurel, Owsley, Whitley36 min
Jan 1, 4:18 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLMcCreary, Whitley27 min
Jan 1, 4:28 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBell, Knox, McCreary, Whitley32 min
Jan 1, 4:33 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLFloyd27 min
Jan 1, 4:37 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLKnott, Leslie, Perry23 min
Jan 1, 4:56 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBell, Clay, Harlan, Knox, Leslie34 min
Jan 1, 5:05 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLKnott, Letcher, Perry25 min
Jan 1, 5:24 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLHarlan, Knott, Leslie, Letcher, Perry36 min
Jan 1, 5:30 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike30 min
Jan 1, 5:42 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningJKLBreathitt, Estill, Menifee, Morgan, Powell, Wolfe15 hr
Jan 1, 5:46 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLBell, Harlan29 min
Jan 1, 5:56 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLLetcher34 min
Jan 1, 6:01 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLPike14 min
Jan 1, 6:13 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementJKLHarlan32 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2022Every flash flood warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.