Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex frontal system pushes showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms to the North Carolina coast by late tonight.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms linger through Saturday mainly
over western North Carolina, before cooler and drier high pressure
returns on Sunday. Moisture and precipitation chances return by the
end of the work week as a complex system impacts the Carolina coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Sfc/upper low centered over lower Ohio Valley attm,
with warm sector enveloping the Southeast. A lobe of vorticity
leading the main wave initiated a band of convection which has now
passed through most of the CWA; more such lobes are evident from
visible satellite imagery lining up bands of enhanced cumulus,
spaced back to the sfc cold front now near the lower MS River. As
such most zones are in a lull presently, but the next lobe is
just entering from the west, actually at the base of the primary
embedded shortwave. Convection is widespread over East TN with
that feature. As it swings across the southern Appalachians and
the NC Piedmont thru the remainder of the aftn, our primary threat
for severe weather should evolve from west to east. Best coverage
likely will be over western NC. The look of the cumulus bands
extending south into GA from the shortwave suggests at least more
isolated severe cells will be possible toward the south.

Any lingering effect of the stratus earlier today looks to be
effectively history, with short-term progs of SBCAPE and MLCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg across much of the Piedmont. Combined with
effective shear of 40-50 kt, supercell threat should persist if not
increase thru late afternoon. CAM guidance remains in agreement on
best coverage in the 5-8 pm timeframe, generally showing bands of
discrete cells; models which had earlier depicted organized line(s)
have trended discrete. Low-level curvature and SRH does not look
as strong as previously anticipated, though sufficient for tornado
threat. Tornado Watch in effect until 8 pm.

The last convection should exit the area by 10-11 pm at the latest,
per recent CAMs, and with synoptic models showing main shortwave
being east of the area by that time. However, upper low will
wobble east overnight and onto the VA/Carolina coastal plain
by the end of Sunday. Most prog soundings from around the area
maintain some saturation beneath that feature, and/or a shallow
convective layer developing late tonight into morning. This warrants
a continuing small PoP near the NC/TN border through Saturday,
and an isolated to scattered PoP mention in most areas along and
northeast of I-26. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out during
peak heating Saturday, though most showers should be light/brief,
and severe weather threat is essentially nil. Gusty winds could
however occur with the showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday: Fairly inactive short term in store.
Sunday will see the broad upper low drift off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, allowing heights to rebound rapidly over the Carolinas
throughout the day; this will aid in stabilizing profiles, which
presently demonstrate only shallow daytime mixing beneath a stout
subsidence inversion. Lingering moisture from Saturday's disturbance
will linger in the low-levels through midday, after which cloud
cover lets up.  With the surface low positioned off the NC coast, NW
flow will allow for continued low-level CAA; this paired with early-
afternoon cloud cover's limiting effect on solar heating will hold
high temperatures a category or so below climatology.

Monday will feature increasingly NE flow as the influence from the
receding low to the east becomes less pronounced, and a broad
surface high over Quebec begins to funnel drier air into the region.
 Model soundings suggest that despite this, generally clear skies
will allow for a modest mixed layer to develop into the afternoon.
Still, synoptic-scale subsidence and overall dry profiles will
inhibit any convection.  Temperatures will climb a category or so
higher than on Sunday, to just a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Fridya: 500mb heights continues to build over the
eastern CONUS on Tuesday in response to a strengthening 592dm high
over the Deep South, while the upper low stalls well east of the NC
coast. The system gradually becomes vertically stacked, and
retrogrades south on Wednesday.  This results in a strengthening WAA
regime and improving onshore moisture flux.

This means lateweek rain is likely, but there remains some question
over exactly when that will occur.  GEFS members are in slightly
better agreement than yesterday on the timing, as they now mostly
all show rain pushing into the Carolinas on Thursday evening, but
their QPF totals still vary wildly.  Furthermore, some deterministic
guidance (and the NBM) still indicate we may see at least scattered
drizzle earlier than Thursday night.  Thus, while confidence is
growing that the system will produce rain across the Carolinas as it
descends south along the coast, confidence remains low on when, or
how much.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Primary concern this afternoon and evening
will be at least one round of SHRA/TSRA associated with vort lobe
rotating around upper low NW of the region. Lines of discrete
storm cells will pose a risk of damaging wind and hail of 1 to
1.5 inches, as well as a tornado or two. TAFs all feature a TEMPO
in the late afternoon to handle this threat, surrounded by VCSH or
VCTS in most cases. Winds will remain generally S to SW with low to
moderate gusts possible even away from convection this aftn. Winds
will shift to SW overnight, veering to NW at KAVL overnight and at
the other sites in the late morning. Breezy conditions overnight
likely will keep fog at bay aside perhaps from the more fog-prone
river valleys, especially where heavy rain falls. As upper low
shifts across and shallow convection develops Saturday, a PROB30
remains in the fcst for light SHRA, which may bring brief MVFR
cigs and possibly low-end gusts.

Outlook: Drying high pressure arrives on Sunday and lingers into
early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-071800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
155 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area through the afternoon. Damaging straight-line winds and hail
area also possible in addition to the tornado threat. The severe
weather threat will diminish by evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Wimberley

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