Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1023 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex frontal system brings today the threat of thunderstorms,
some severe. Showers and isolated thunderstorms linger Saturday.
Cooler and drier high pressure moves in Sunday through mid week.
Moisture and precipitation chances return by the end of the work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM: Band of showers with embedded t-storms extends from
E TN to middle GA attm and is just entering the CWA. This appears
forced by a prefrontal convergence axis and plume of weak WAA. Low
stratus has remained over much of the area preceding this line,
with moisture trapped under a shallow inversion. Very low ceilings
and even some pockets of fog remain in the eastern zones. Starting
to get some clearing over the southern CWA, although that area will
soon be blanketed by the higher decks coming in with the band of
precip. So, altogether, the big question remains how much we will
destabilize. RAP/HRRR continue to depict inversion eroding by 16z,
presumably as a result of mixing, but still a bit skeptical that
will occur as fast as suggested. Dynamic features remain in play
as previously expected. Shear parameters will remain favorable
for severe weather, and mid-afternoon arrival of shortwave and
DPVA remain well timed to make the most of whatever instability
does develop.

CAMs do agree fairly well on timing of an initial wave of convection
this afternoon. 12z cycle runs have transitioned to showing
more discrete storms as opposed to the squall line depicted on
some earlier runs. This makes sense in light of relatively weak
midlevel wind profiles, but also could reflect less instability
than previously progged.

Still anticipating a severe thunderstorm threat across the entire
fcst area, with wind and hail the primary concerns and isolated
tornadoes also possible. Wind threat may prove less expansive than
would be expected with an organized squall line, but expectation
of strong updrafts and midlevel dry air still warrants a mention
of that threat. We remain under Enhanced Risk per 13z update
to SPC Day 1 outlook. The fast progression of the front should
limit flooding potential, however rain rates will be high under
the stronger storms and flash flooding is always possible in any
areas with training convection. The front should be moving east of
our fcst area just after 00z, with most of the convective activity
done for our CWA by that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday: The upper low tracks slowly to our north
Saturday as short wave rotates around the low and across our area.
The low moves off the Carolina coast Sunday and stalls there. The
associated surface low is a little farther east through the period.
Still, there will be deep moisture rotating through the area
Saturday before drying moves in Saturday night. The moisture and
forcing will keep categorical to likely precip chances across much
of the area during the day. Weak instability will lead to isolated
thunderstorms as well. Right now, nothing looks to be severe or with
heavy rainfall. A dry forecast is expected Sunday and Sunday night
with a ridge surface and aloft building in and a dry air mass.

Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Lows Saturday night will
be around 5 degrees below normal, then dropping a few degrees Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: All eyes will remain on the upper low and
surface cyclone through the medium range. These systems stall off
the Carolina coast then slowly retrogrades back to the GA/FL coast
through the period. Until then, a ridge surface and aloft develop
over the area before weakening by the end of the period. Expect a
mainly dry forecast Monday through Wednesday as deep moisture
remains off shore, even with a developing northeast flow. Moisture
begins to increase Thursday as the low reaches the GA/FL coast and
an easterly flow develops. Have isolated to low end scattered
showers developing with better precip chances holding off until
Friday.

Temperatures will be cooler over the eastern sections of the
forecast area than over the mountains for portions of the period as
clouds and lower thickness values will be more likely to the east.
Lows start out around 5 degrees below normal then slowly rise to
around 5 degrees above normal. Highs will start out about 5 degrees
above normal across the mountains and 5 below normal elsewhere.
Highs rise a few degrees through Wednesday then drop a few on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The period will start off with a mix of
VFR, MVFR, and IFR cigs this morning thanks to a moist, light
SWLY to SELY low-lvl flow. This does appear to be in a gradually
decaying state although a mention remains warranted until
15-16z. More precip will gradually move in from the west over
the next few hours with winds increasing from the S/SW ahead of
an approaching cold front. Most of the guidance still has at
least one (or more) bands of thunderstorms moving east across
the region during the aftn/early evening. Some of the storms
could be severe with strong wind gusts and hail. I kept TEMPOs
for the main band/line of thunderstorms with VCSH otherwise.
Once the thunderstorms move east conditions should improve to
VFR by 00z or just after, but winds will remain gusty and from
the SW.

Outlook: Lingering showers with a passing disturbance may continue
well into Saturday before drying high pressure arrives on Sunday
and lingers into early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT/Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
420 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-070830-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
420 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area through the afternoon. Some of these storms will become
severe with damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Isolated
large hail is also possible. The storms and severe threat diminish
early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
919 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ051-058-061345-
Graham NC-Swain NC-
919 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Swain
and Graham Counties through 945 AM EDT...

At 918 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Murphy, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Robbinsville, Town Of Santeetlah, Lake Santeetlah, Fontana Lake,
Fontana Village, Smoky Mountains-Twentymile Creek, Smoky
Mountains-Fontana Area, Stecoah, Cheoah and Deals Gap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3546 8396 3547 8392
      3552 8388 3553 8382 3555 8379 3539 8352
      3525 8377 3526 8379 3525 8385 3522 8396
      3523 8400 3527 8401 3529 8403 3531 8402
      3531 8404 3535 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1318Z 225DEG 43KT 3524 8401

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1043 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-NCZ062-061515-
Rabun GA-Macon NC-
1043 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Rabun
and central Macon Counties through 1115 AM EDT...

At 1043 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Clayton, or 9 miles west of Dillard, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Dillard, Ellijay, Burningtown, Otto, Rainbow Springs,
Cullasaja, Cowee and Wayah Bald.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355 3500 8348
      3500 8352 3502 8352 3504 8356 3507 8357
      3510 8360 3530 8348 3530 8346 3531 8345
      3518 8322 3516 8322 3516 8321 3486 8350
      3492 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 213DEG 26KT 3499 8355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1237 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

SCZ008-108-109-061700-
Cherokee SC-Northern Spartanburg SC-Southern Spartanburg SC-
1237 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Spartanburg and Cherokee Counties through 100 PM EDT...

At 1237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Spartanburg, or near Cowpens, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gaffney, Spartanburg, Cowpens, Blacksburg, Mayo, Pacolet Mills,
Grover, Croft State Park, USC Upstate and Cedar Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8184 3500 8198 3518 8176 3517 8142
      3517 8140 3515 8138 3514 8140 3511 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1637Z 230DEG 36KT 3498 8185

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-061730-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
1254 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Rutherford, Cleveland and northwestern Cherokee Counties through 130
PM EDT...

At 1254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Gaffney, or near Cowpens National Battlefield,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelby, Gaffney, Boiling Springs NC, Lawndale, Patterson Springs,
Fallston, Polkville, Ellenboro, Lattimore and Mooresboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8147 3536 8141 3533 8136 3501 8172
      3507 8182 3517 8186 3552 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 217DEG 39KT 3513 8175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG