Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex frontal system pushes showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms to the North Carolina coast by late tonight.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms linger through Saturday mainly
over western North Carolina, before cooler and drier high pressure
returns on Sunday. Moisture and precipitation chances return by the
end of the work week as a complex system impacts the Carolina coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM: Sfc/upper low centered over lower Ohio Valley attm,
with warm sector enveloping the Southeast. A lobe of vorticity
leading the main wave initiated a band of convection which has now
passed through most of the CWA; more such lobes are evident from
visible satellite imagery lining up bands of enhanced cumulus,
spaced back to the sfc cold front now near the lower MS River. As
such most zones are in a lull presently, but the next lobe is
just entering from the west, actually at the base of the primary
embedded shortwave. Convection is widespread over East TN with
that feature. As it swings across the southern Appalachians and
the NC Piedmont thru the remainder of the aftn, our primary threat
for severe weather should evolve from west to east. Best coverage
likely will be over western NC. The look of the cumulus bands
extending south into GA from the shortwave suggests at least more
isolated severe cells will be possible toward the south.

Any lingering effect of the stratus earlier today looks to be
effectively history, with short-term progs of SBCAPE and MLCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg across much of the Piedmont. Combined with
effective shear of 40-50 kt, supercell threat should persist if not
increase thru late afternoon. CAM guidance remains in agreement on
best coverage in the 5-8 pm timeframe, generally showing bands of
discrete cells; models which had earlier depicted organized line(s)
have trended discrete. Low-level curvature and SRH does not look
as strong as previously anticipated, though sufficient for tornado
threat. Tornado Watch in effect until 8 pm.

The last convection should exit the area by 10-11 pm at the latest,
per recent CAMs, and with synoptic models showing main shortwave
being east of the area by that time. However, upper low will
wobble east overnight and onto the VA/Carolina coastal plain
by the end of Sunday. Most prog soundings from around the area
maintain some saturation beneath that feature, and/or a shallow
convective layer developing late tonight into morning. This warrants
a continuing small PoP near the NC/TN border through Saturday,
and an isolated to scattered PoP mention in most areas along and
northeast of I-26. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out during
peak heating Saturday, though most showers should be light/brief,
and severe weather threat is essentially nil. Gusty winds could
however occur with the showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday: Fairly inactive short term in store.
Sunday will see the broad upper low drift off the Mid-Atlantic
coast, allowing heights to rebound rapidly over the Carolinas
throughout the day; this will aid in stabilizing profiles, which
presently demonstrate only shallow daytime mixing beneath a stout
subsidence inversion. Lingering moisture from Saturday's disturbance
will linger in the low-levels through midday, after which cloud
cover lets up.  With the surface low positioned off the NC coast, NW
flow will allow for continued low-level CAA; this paired with early-
afternoon cloud cover's limiting effect on solar heating will hold
high temperatures a category or so below climatology.

Monday will feature increasingly NE flow as the influence from the
receding low to the east becomes less pronounced, and a broad
surface high over Quebec begins to funnel drier air into the region.
 Model soundings suggest that despite this, generally clear skies
will allow for a modest mixed layer to develop into the afternoon.
Still, synoptic-scale subsidence and overall dry profiles will
inhibit any convection.  Temperatures will climb a category or so
higher than on Sunday, to just a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Fridya: 500mb heights continues to build over the
eastern CONUS on Tuesday in response to a strengthening 592dm high
over the Deep South, while the upper low stalls well east of the NC
coast. The system gradually becomes vertically stacked, and
retrogrades south on Wednesday.  This results in a strengthening WAA
regime and improving onshore moisture flux.

This means lateweek rain is likely, but there remains some question
over exactly when that will occur.  GEFS members are in slightly
better agreement than yesterday on the timing, as they now mostly
all show rain pushing into the Carolinas on Thursday evening, but
their QPF totals still vary wildly.  Furthermore, some deterministic
guidance (and the NBM) still indicate we may see at least scattered
drizzle earlier than Thursday night.  Thus, while confidence is
growing that the system will produce rain across the Carolinas as it
descends south along the coast, confidence remains low on when, or
how much.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Primary concern this afternoon and evening
will be at least one round of SHRA/TSRA associated with vort lobe
rotating around upper low NW of the region. Lines of discrete
storm cells will pose a risk of damaging wind and hail of 1 to
1.5 inches, as well as a tornado or two. TAFs all feature a TEMPO
in the late afternoon to handle this threat, surrounded by VCSH or
VCTS in most cases. Winds will remain generally S to SW with low to
moderate gusts possible even away from convection this aftn. Winds
will shift to SW overnight, veering to NW at KAVL overnight and at
the other sites in the late morning. Breezy conditions overnight
likely will keep fog at bay aside perhaps from the more fog-prone
river valleys, especially where heavy rain falls. As upper low
shifts across and shallow convection develops Saturday, a PROB30
remains in the fcst for light SHRA, which may bring brief MVFR
cigs and possibly low-end gusts.

Outlook: Drying high pressure arrives on Sunday and lingers into
early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-071800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
155 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area through the afternoon. Damaging straight-line winds and hail
area also possible in addition to the tornado threat. The severe
weather threat will diminish by evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Wimberley

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ062>064-SCZ101-104-061945-
Rabun GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Transylvania NC-
Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
258 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Stephens, Habersham, Rabun, southeastern Macon, southwestern
Transylvania, southeastern Jackson and northwestern Oconee Counties
through 345 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Clayton to 8 miles northeast of
Cleveland. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Clarkesville, Toccoa, Demorest, Highlands, Mountain City,
Tiger, Dillard, Sky Valley and Cashiers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8364 3474 8362 3477 8363 3478 8366
      3491 8363 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355
      3499 8355 3499 8349 3500 8348 3500 8350
      3517 8294 3465 8312 3454 8362 3460 8365
      3462 8364 3465 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 252DEG 42KT 3489 8357 3467 8365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ053-503>506-062000-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
337 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDowell, east
central Buncombe and northwestern Burke Counties through 400 PM
EDT...

At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Marion, or near Old Fort, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Black Mountain, Old Fort, Lake James State Park, Table Rock,
Lake James, B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, B.R.
Parkway-Craggy To Little Switzerland, Glen Alpine and Linville Falls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for western North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8187 3595 8178 3593 8178 3592 8175
      3588 8171 3585 8164 3582 8162 3553 8217
      3552 8224 3564 8236 3570 8227 3570 8226
      3573 8219 3579 8216 3585 8208 3586 8204
      3588 8202 3587 8200 3594 8196 3599 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 231DEG 34KT 3563 8221

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
343 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-SCZ101-102-104-105-062015-
Rabun GA-Greater Oconee SC-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
343 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Rabun,
northern Pickens and northeastern Oconee Counties through 415 PM
EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Walhalla, or near Oconee State Park, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pickens, Walhalla, Salem, Lake Keowee, Jocassee Gorges, Lake
Jocassee, Devils Fork State Park, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Table
Rock State Park and Oconee State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8303 3509 8279 3507 8278 3507 8277
      3505 8275 3506 8270 3507 8257 3506 8260
      3504 8260 3503 8259 3501 8260 3501 8254
      3498 8253 3498 8255 3497 8253 3492 8252
      3491 8250 3475 8318 3492 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 242DEG 49KT 3489 8309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
344 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ048-052-053-062030-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Madison NC-
344 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Madison, central Haywood and northwestern Buncombe Counties through
430 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northwest of Waynesville, or over Maggie Valley, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesville, Marshall, Lake Junaluska, Clyde, Maggie Valley, Smoky
Mountains-Cataloochee, Leicester, B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To
Balsam Gap, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain and Canton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for western North
Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8270 3575 8249 3542 8305 3544 8308
      3545 8308 3546 8310 3546 8313 3549 8314
      3549 8315 3551 8316 3551 8318 3555 8316
      3558 8317 3559 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 230DEG 34KT 3553 8309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC