Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1023 AM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex frontal system brings today the threat of thunderstorms,
some severe. Showers and isolated thunderstorms linger Saturday.
Cooler and drier high pressure moves in Sunday through mid week.
Moisture and precipitation chances return by the end of the work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM: Band of showers with embedded t-storms extends from
E TN to middle GA attm and is just entering the CWA. This appears
forced by a prefrontal convergence axis and plume of weak WAA. Low
stratus has remained over much of the area preceding this line,
with moisture trapped under a shallow inversion. Very low ceilings
and even some pockets of fog remain in the eastern zones. Starting
to get some clearing over the southern CWA, although that area will
soon be blanketed by the higher decks coming in with the band of
precip. So, altogether, the big question remains how much we will
destabilize. RAP/HRRR continue to depict inversion eroding by 16z,
presumably as a result of mixing, but still a bit skeptical that
will occur as fast as suggested. Dynamic features remain in play
as previously expected. Shear parameters will remain favorable
for severe weather, and mid-afternoon arrival of shortwave and
DPVA remain well timed to make the most of whatever instability
does develop.

CAMs do agree fairly well on timing of an initial wave of convection
this afternoon. 12z cycle runs have transitioned to showing
more discrete storms as opposed to the squall line depicted on
some earlier runs. This makes sense in light of relatively weak
midlevel wind profiles, but also could reflect less instability
than previously progged.

Still anticipating a severe thunderstorm threat across the entire
fcst area, with wind and hail the primary concerns and isolated
tornadoes also possible. Wind threat may prove less expansive than
would be expected with an organized squall line, but expectation
of strong updrafts and midlevel dry air still warrants a mention
of that threat. We remain under Enhanced Risk per 13z update
to SPC Day 1 outlook. The fast progression of the front should
limit flooding potential, however rain rates will be high under
the stronger storms and flash flooding is always possible in any
areas with training convection. The front should be moving east of
our fcst area just after 00z, with most of the convective activity
done for our CWA by that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Friday: The upper low tracks slowly to our north
Saturday as short wave rotates around the low and across our area.
The low moves off the Carolina coast Sunday and stalls there. The
associated surface low is a little farther east through the period.
Still, there will be deep moisture rotating through the area
Saturday before drying moves in Saturday night. The moisture and
forcing will keep categorical to likely precip chances across much
of the area during the day. Weak instability will lead to isolated
thunderstorms as well. Right now, nothing looks to be severe or with
heavy rainfall. A dry forecast is expected Sunday and Sunday night
with a ridge surface and aloft building in and a dry air mass.

Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Lows Saturday night will
be around 5 degrees below normal, then dropping a few degrees Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: All eyes will remain on the upper low and
surface cyclone through the medium range. These systems stall off
the Carolina coast then slowly retrogrades back to the GA/FL coast
through the period. Until then, a ridge surface and aloft develop
over the area before weakening by the end of the period. Expect a
mainly dry forecast Monday through Wednesday as deep moisture
remains off shore, even with a developing northeast flow. Moisture
begins to increase Thursday as the low reaches the GA/FL coast and
an easterly flow develops. Have isolated to low end scattered
showers developing with better precip chances holding off until
Friday.

Temperatures will be cooler over the eastern sections of the
forecast area than over the mountains for portions of the period as
clouds and lower thickness values will be more likely to the east.
Lows start out around 5 degrees below normal then slowly rise to
around 5 degrees above normal. Highs will start out about 5 degrees
above normal across the mountains and 5 below normal elsewhere.
Highs rise a few degrees through Wednesday then drop a few on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The period will start off with a mix of
VFR, MVFR, and IFR cigs this morning thanks to a moist, light
SWLY to SELY low-lvl flow. This does appear to be in a gradually
decaying state although a mention remains warranted until
15-16z. More precip will gradually move in from the west over
the next few hours with winds increasing from the S/SW ahead of
an approaching cold front. Most of the guidance still has at
least one (or more) bands of thunderstorms moving east across
the region during the aftn/early evening. Some of the storms
could be severe with strong wind gusts and hail. I kept TEMPOs
for the main band/line of thunderstorms with VCSH otherwise.
Once the thunderstorms move east conditions should improve to
VFR by 00z or just after, but winds will remain gusty and from
the SW.

Outlook: Lingering showers with a passing disturbance may continue
well into Saturday before drying high pressure arrives on Sunday
and lingers into early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT/Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
155 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-071800-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
155 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...TORNADO WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area through the afternoon. Damaging straight-line winds and hail
area also possible in addition to the tornado threat. The severe
weather threat will diminish by evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Wimberley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-061730-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
1254 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Rutherford, Cleveland and northwestern Cherokee Counties through 130
PM EDT...

At 1254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Gaffney, or near Cowpens National Battlefield,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelby, Gaffney, Boiling Springs NC, Lawndale, Patterson Springs,
Fallston, Polkville, Ellenboro, Lattimore and Mooresboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 8147 3536 8141 3533 8136 3501 8172
      3507 8182 3517 8186 3552 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 217DEG 39KT 3513 8175

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
105 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ082-061730-
Union NC-
105 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Union County
through 130 PM EDT...

At 104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monroe, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wingate, Marshville, Fairview In Union County and
New Salem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8029 3484 8045 3492 8064 3518 8050
      3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042
      3516 8041 3518 8037 3517 8036 3518 8031
      3519 8030 3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 207DEG 43KT 3495 8051

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
114 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ068-504-506-508-061745-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
114 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDowell, northeastern Rutherford, northwestern Cleveland and
southern Burke Counties through 145 PM EDT...

At 113 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Forest City, or 4 miles north of Bostic, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Forest City, Glen Alpine, Bostic, Casar, South Mountains
State Park, Ellenboro, Spindale, Lake James State Park and Lake
James.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8179 3540 8198 3578 8185 3567 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 210DEG 32KT 3543 8184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
130 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ071-082-SCZ009-014-061815-
Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Chester SC-
130 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Mecklenburg, southwestern Union, Chester and southeastern York
Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of York to 9 miles southwest of
Chester. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rock Hill, Chester, South Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, Fort Mill,
Pineville, Tega Cay, Newport, Waxhaw and Lesslie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8080 3494 8078 3508 8091 3501 8091
      3492 8086 3490 8088 3484 8087 3482 8090
      3479 8088 3470 8086 3456 8118 3457 8136
      3493 8131 3521 8078 3482 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 232DEG 41KT 3486 8121 3459 8129

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
133 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ068>071-SCZ009-061800-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
133 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Lincoln,
northwestern Mecklenburg, southeastern Cleveland, Gaston and north
central York Counties through 200 PM EDT...

At 133 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Gastonia, or near Kings Mountain, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gastonia, Huntersville, Kings Mountain, Mt Holly, Bessemer City,
South Gastonia, Dallas, Stanley, Lowell and Ranlo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8134 3515 8138 3516 8137 3517 8139
      3525 8147 3555 8107 3555 8096 3553 8094
      3553 8095 3550 8096 3549 8094 3550 8092
      3537 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 232DEG 41KT 3523 8134

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
147 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

NCZ035-056-068-069-502-504-061815-
Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
147 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Catawba,
Alexander, northwestern Lincoln, eastern Caldwell, north central
Cleveland and southeastern Burke Counties through 215 PM EDT...

At 147 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Morganton, or 7 miles east of South Mountains
State Park, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hickory, Taylorsville, Lenoir, St. Stephens, Longview, Sawmills,
Granite Falls, Valdese, Bethlehem and Hudson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Conditions are favorable for development of a very brief, weak
tornado. Be prepared to take immediate action if a tornado is sighted
or a Tornado Warning is issued.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for western and
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8140 3602 8135 3600 8133 3603 8127
      3603 8122 3598 8100 3549 8147 3558 8166
      3603 8148 3607 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 209DEG 47KT 3560 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG