Small Craft Advisory 45, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
236 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Showers and thunderstorms are currently developing to the west of
the cwa, and even in the western cwa, early this afternoon ahead
of an approaching cold front. Although these storms are currently
not severe, the aforementioned cold front is expected to overcome
the capping inversion in place. Once this occurs, thunderstorms
will have sufficient ingredients for severe weather as SBCAPE
values are 2-3 J/g along with steep mid level lapse rates and very
strong winds just off the surface. If storms are discrete and
supercellular 0-1 km shear values of 15 to 20 knots will be
sufficient for some tornadoes. If storms coalesce into a more
linear mode, as suggested by the hi-res models shortly after
discrete cells form, 0-3 km shear values around 30 knots from the
southwest will raise the threat for QLCS tornadoes if any part of
the line becomes normal to these shear vectors. Given all these
parameters in place, all severe weather modes are on the table
through this evening with damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes possible.

In addition to severe weather, flash flooding will be possible as
PWAT values soar to 1.5 to 2 inches. Although storms are not
expected to be slow moving, the southern portion of portions of
central and east-central Wisconsin received 1 to 2 inches of rain
during the last 2 days. This would pose an increased threat for
flooding across these areas as soil moisture is already fairly
high.

The storms should exit the area late this evening, with clearing
skies during the overnight hours. A tight pressure gradient on
Thursday will cause surface winds to increase precipitously during
the morning hours, gusting to 40 mph or more at times during the
day on Thursday. Although temperatures will still be warm on
Thursday with highs in the 80s, dew points falling into the 50s
will make for a more pleasant day across the area.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

High pressure will keep the weather dry to end the work week and
into the first part of the weekend as temperatures return to more
seasonable levels. Isentropic lift ahead of a warm front could
bring some showers and isolated thunderstorms late in the weekend.
Instability looks to be fairly limited; therefore, mainly showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected.

Temperatures will soar behind the departing warm front for the
early part of next week, as highs soar back into the 90s away from
Lake Michigan. Some weak shortwaves tracking around the periphery
of the upper level ridge across the western Great Lakes could
bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorm to the region at
times during the early part of the week; however exact timing of
these features is problematic at best this far out.

A cold front will track through the region late Tuesday into
early Wednesday as the upper level ridge breaks down. This will
allow for additional isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorm through the middle part of the week as temperatures
moderate a bit back into the 80s for Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

An organized line of strong to severe storms is expected to form
this afternoon ahead of a cold front and track east through the
region through the evening hours. Some storms could produce very
strong winds and large hail as they move across the region.
Outside of the convective activity there should be VFR conditions.

The showers and thunderstorms will exit eastern Wisconsin by late
evening, with clearing skies overnight.

Clear skies are expected Thursday, but with southwest winds at
20 to 30 knots with gusts over 40 knots possible. The strong
winds will produce mechanical turbulence and could produce
crosswind issues on some runways. STrong low level winds will
cause LLWS late tonight and Thursday morning at all of the TAF
sites.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
154 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-161900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
154 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds, large hail, torrential rain, and isolated
tornadoes are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Southwest winds gusting over 40 mph could produce minor tree or
power line damage on Thursday.

Occasional thunderstorms are possible next week, but it is too
early to pin down specific timing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and
evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-161900-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
154 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. Strong
to severe storms are likely, with strong winds, large hail, and
isolated waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for southwest winds gusting
to around 30 knots Thursday.

Occasional thunderstorms are possible next week. Any thunderstorm
would pose a hazard to mariners.

Kurimski

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

WIZ035-036-151845-
Wood WI-Portage WI-
1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Wood and
central Portage Counties through 145 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Necedah, or 20 miles northeast of Tomah, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lake Wazeecha and Whiting.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4466 8957 4433 8924 4424 8946 4425 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 240DEG 49KT 4415 9016

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Uhlmann