Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
415 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

A low level jet was producing scattered thunderstorms across
central Wisconsin at 09 UTC. They should move into north central
Wisconsin and diminish after daybreak. A line of strong to severe
storms is likely later today as the right entrance region of a 80
knot 500mb jet and surface cold front approach from the west.

Skies will start out cloudy across the western two thirds of the
forecast area this morning, but expect it to become partly sunny
once the leftover convective clouds exit. Very warm air aloft will
have no trouble mixing down across the eastern half of the area.
Expect high temperatures around 90F and dewpoints in the low 70s
in east central Wisconsin, which will result in heat indices in
the middle to upper 90s.

A lot of the ingredients for severe storms and possible flash
flooding are forecast to be in place later this afternoon into
the evening hours. Winds aloft are unusually strong for this time
of the year, and precipitable water values are in the 99th
percentile. CAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/KG and steep mid level
lapse rates are forecast during the late afternoon and evening.
Think that damaging winds and local flash flooding are the main
threats, but large hail and isolated tornadoes are a threat as
well.

The storms will exit the area by late evening, with clearing
overnight. A strong pressure gradient is forecast across the area
Thursday, with 850mb winds forecast to be two or three standard
deviations above normal. Surface wind gusts to 40 mph or more are
likely over land areas, with gale force gusts possible over the
nearshore waters. Highs will be five to ten degrees above normal
but with lower relative humidity.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

A quiet start to the long term forecast with seasonable
temperatures. Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and through next week, with temperatures rising into the
90s again early next week.

Thursday night through Saturday...Upper ridge builds across the
central CONUS while surface high pressure slides from central
Canada through the western Great Lakes. This will result in
dry weather with northwest flow ushering in a cooler airmass for
a few days. Temperatures will still be near seasonal normals with
lows mainly in the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (away
from Lake Michigan).

Saturday night through Wednesday...Upper ridge axis approaches WI
and flow backs to the southwest late Saturday/early Sunday.
Isentropic lift could produce some showers and a few claps of
thunder Saturday night into midday Sunday when this occurs. There
is very little instability, so at the moment light rain showers
look like the main precip. Southwest flow will then bring in
warmer and more humid air early next week, with highs Monday and
Tuesday in the upper 80s and low 90s. Even lakeshore locations
will likely see readings in the 80s. Most of Mon/Tue looks dry,
but weak shortwaves riding the ridge could produce a few scattered
showers or thunderstorms at times. Upper ridge breaks down late
Tuesday into early Wednesday which will also allow a surface cold
front to move across this state. This feature could produce some
showers and thunderstorms. Following the frontal passage, upper
flow becomes zonal and temps and dew points cool a few degrees on
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

LLWS will gradually abate overnight as the 850mb flow veers and
weakens. Otherwise, the timing and strength of convection is the
main aviation forecast issue. Showers and storms developing NE out
of IA may push through the western part of the area late
tonight/early Wednesday. Another round of stronger storms is
likely Wednesday afternoon and evening, perhaps arriving a little
slower than previously anticipated. Will adjust timing in the
TAFs accordingly.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......KLJ
AVIATION.......Skowronski

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
238 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

WIZ030-035-036-150815-
Wood WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-
238 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...Scattered thunderstorms will impact portions of Wood,
northwestern Portage and western Marathon Counties through 315 AM
CDT...

At 236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking scattered thunderstorms
over Clark and Jackson counties, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 35 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marshfield, Rib Mountain, Mosinee, Spencer, Pittsville, Knowlton,
Colby, Stratford, Marathon City and Edgar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4490 9031 4510 8996 4467 8941 4427 9019
      4439 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 234DEG 56KT 4457 9029

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

WIZ018-019-030-031-036-150930-
Shawano WI-Langlade WI-Marathon WI-Portage WI-Lincoln WI-
341 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Portage,
southeastern Lincoln, Marathon, southwestern Langlade and western
Shawano Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 340 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles west of Rib Mountain to near Mosinee
to 7 miles west of Stevens Point. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Mosinee around 345 AM CDT.
  Wausau, Weston and Rib Mountain around 355 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Merrill, Council
Grounds State Park, Bevent, Dutch Corners, Antigo and Wittenberg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4538 8950 4516 8914 4470 8915 4468 8920
      4468 8922 4467 8922 4443 8973 4451 8973
      4451 8977 4479 8976 4496 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 230DEG 30KT 4496 8991 4483 8971 4452 8971

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RDM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
417 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

WIZ018>020-030-031-150945-
Shawano WI-Langlade WI-Marathon WI-Menominee WI-Lincoln WI-
417 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Lincoln,
eastern Marathon, northwestern Menominee, Langlade and western
Shawano Counties through 445 AM CDT...

At 416 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Merrill to 12 miles southwest of Antigo to
near Bevent. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Dutch Corners around 425 AM CDT.
  Antigo and Wittenberg around 435 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Parrish and
Veterans Memorial County Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 8970 4547 8937 4547 8919 4546 8903
      4547 8892 4538 8892 4538 8875 4512 8876
      4511 8874 4499 8876 4494 8879 4468 8938
      4468 8939 4500 8939
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 228DEG 34KT 4518 8963 4504 8936 4473 8937

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RDM

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