River Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

981 
WGUS81 KBUF 171658
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1158 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer affecting Erie County.

  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

.The following flood warnings are for high flows from rain and 
snowmelt. Potential ice jams through tonight may result in more 
significant flooding localized near ice jams.

For the Cazenovia Creek...including Ebenezer...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Cayuga Creek...including Lancaster...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 1200 AM EST.

&&


NYC029-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0001.220217T2341Z-220218T2037Z/
/EBZN6.1.RS.220217T2341Z.220218T1200Z.220218T1436Z.UU/
1158 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer.

* WHEN...From this evening to Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding can be 
  expected in low lying areas east of Orchard Park Road and south of 
  Ridge Road in West Seneca. Some inundation of Cazenovia Park in 
  South Buffalo.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Thursday the stage was 5.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this evening to a crest of 11.3 feet tomorrow morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    11.3 feet on 03/12/1962.
  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
      4273 7857 4275 7870


$$

NYC029-121-180500-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0002.220218T0400Z-220219T0000Z/
/LCSN6.1.RS.220218T0400Z.220218T1200Z.220218T1800Z.UU/
1158 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO FRIDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.

* WHEN...From this evening to Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding in lowlying 
  areas of Lancaster and Alden.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM EST Thursday the stage was 6.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 8.5 feet tomorrow morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    8.5 feet on 06/13/2013.
  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
      4292 7848 4281 7846


$$

JLA

000 
WGUS81 KBUF 171955
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

.The following flood warnings are for high flows from rain and 
snowmelt. Potential ice jams through tonight may result in more 
significant flooding localized near ice jams.

For the Cayuga Creek...including Lancaster...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 300 AM EST.

&&


NYC029-121-180800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0002.220217T1955Z-220218T1800Z/
/LCSN6.1.RS.220217T1906Z.220218T0600Z.220218T1200Z.UU/
255 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to early Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding in low lying 
  areas of Lancaster and Alden.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 8.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 2:30 PM EST Thursday was 8.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 8.3 feet just after
    midnight tonight. It will fall below flood stage Friday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    8.3 feet on 01/25/2010.
  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
      4292 7848 4281 7846


$$

JLA

175 
WGUS81 KBUF 180349
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1049 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda affecting Chautauqua, Erie, 
  Cattaraugus and Wyoming Counties.

  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer affecting Erie County.

  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

  Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville affecting Erie and Genesee 
  Counties.

  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia affecting Wyoming, Erie, Niagara and 
  Genesee Counties.

.The following flood warnings are for high flows from rain and 
snowmelt. Potential ice jams through tonight may result in more 
significant flooding localized near ice jams.

For the Cattaraugus Creek...including Gowanda...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Cazenovia Creek...including Ebenezer...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Cayuga Creek...including Lancaster...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Ellicott Creek...including Williamsville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Tonawanda Creek...including Attica, Batavia, Rapids...Minor 
flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday morning at 1000 AM EST.

&&


NYC029-121-181600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T1700Z/
/LCSN6.1.RS.220217T1906Z.220217T2100Z.220218T1100Z.UU/
1049 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding in low lying 
  areas of Lancaster and Alden.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 PM EST Thursday the stage was 8.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:30 PM EST Thursday was 8.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.5
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    8.5 feet on 06/13/2013.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
      4292 7848 4281 7846


$$

NYC029-181500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/
/EBZN6.1.RS.220218T0520Z.220218T0600Z.220218T0900Z.UU/
1049 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding can be 
  expected in low lying areas east of Orchard Park Road and south of 
  Ridge Road in West Seneca. Some inundation of Cazenovia Park in 
  South Buffalo.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 9.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    just after midnight tonight to a crest of 10.2 feet just
    after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage
    late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.9 feet on 11/24/2014.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
      4273 7857 4275 7870


$$

NYC009-013-029-121-181500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0007.220218T0430Z-220218T1500Z/
/GOWN6.1.RS.220218T0531Z.220218T0600Z.220218T0824Z.NO/
1049 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus Creek At Gowanda.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, flooding along right bank a 
  half mile to a mile downstream from Gowanda, mostly in industrial 
  and commercial areas. Watch for developing problems along Thatcher 
  Creek in Gowanda and at Sunset Bay at the mouth near Lake Erie.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:17 PM EST Thursday the stage was 8.6 feet.
  - Potential ice jams through tonight may result in
    more significant flooding localized near ice jams.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    just after midnight tonight to a crest of 10.2 feet just
    after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage
    late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.4 feet on 03/15/2007.
  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4262 7910 4251 7885 4259 7838 4247 7836
      4238 7890 4254 7921


$$

NYC029-037-181600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0010.220218T1400Z-220219T0900Z/
/WILN6.1.RS.220218T1541Z.220218T1800Z.220219T0112Z.NO/
1049 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Ellicott Creek Near Williamsville.

* WHEN...From Friday morning to early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Flood stage, some flooding begins along 
  Aero Drive from Holtz to Transit Roads in Cheektowaga. Also some 
  flooding along the flood control project area in Amherst such as 
  the bike path and golf course. Minor flooding in Ellicott Creek 
  Park. Little or no overall damage.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:15 PM EST Thursday the stage was 5.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow morning to a crest of 8.5 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    8.5 feet on 02/14/1984.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4293 7875 4301 7889 4304 7889 4304 7875
      4295 7865 4293 7865


$$

NYC029-037-063-121-181600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0008.220218T1400Z-220219T0600Z/
/BTVN6.1.RS.220218T1612Z.220218T1800Z.220219T0000Z.UU/
1049 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tonawanda Creek At Batavia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning to early Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 9.0 feet, Flood stage, some flooding in Batavia, 
  possibly impacting Kibbe Park, Walnut Street, and Law Street. 
  Flooding in rural areas of Alexander and the lowlands of the 
  Alabama Swamps with some road closures likely.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 3.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow morning to a crest of 9.3 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    9.0 feet on 11/25/2014.

  - For more information please visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
      4293 7817 4293 7832


$$

SJW

949 
WGUS81 KBUF 181117
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
617 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer affecting Erie County.

  Buffalo Creek AT Gardenville affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

.Heavy rain and snowmelt yesterday resulted in excessive runoff and 
flooding.

For the Cazenovia Creek...including Ebenezer...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Buffalo Creek...including Gardenville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Cayuga Creek...including Lancaster...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this afternoon at 130 PM EST.

&&


NYC029-121-181930-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1917Z/
/GDVN6.1.RS.220217T1659Z.220218T0731Z.220218T1317Z.NO/
617 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Buffalo Creek Near Gardenville.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 7.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding is possible 
  along the low lying areas next to Buffalo Creek, especially around 
  the farm fields downstream from Union Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:15 AM EST Friday the stage was 7.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:15 AM EST Friday was 7.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 7.3
    feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage this
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    7.1 feet on 10/30/2012.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
      4282 7867 4282 7887


$$

NYC029-121-181830-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T1830Z/
/LCSN6.1.RS.220217T1906Z.220217T2100Z.220218T1230Z.UU/
617 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 8.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding in lowlying 
  areas of Lancaster and Alden.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 AM EST Friday the stage was 8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain near the flood
    stage of 8 feet early this morning. It will then fall below
    flood stage late this morning.
  - Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    8.1 feet on 03/15/2007.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
      4292 7848 4281 7846


$$

NYC029-181945-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T1936Z/
/EBZN6.1.RS.220218T0720Z.220218T1200Z.220218T1336Z.UU/
617 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer.

* WHEN...Until this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Flood stage, minor flooding can be 
  expected in low lying areas east of Orchard Park Road and south of 
  Ridge Road in West Seneca. Some inundation of Cazenovia Park in 
  South Buffalo.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EST Friday the stage was 10.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to remain near the 10 foot
    flood stage early this morning. It will then fall below flood
    stage late this morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.9 feet on 11/24/2014.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
      4273 7857 4275 7870


$$

Hitchcock

020 
WGUS81 KBUF 181740
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1240 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer affecting Erie County.

  Buffalo Creek AT Gardenville affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

  Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster affecting Wyoming and Erie Counties.

NYC029-121-181845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1740Z/
/GDVN6.1.RS.220217T1659Z.220218T0731Z.220218T1035Z.NO/
1240 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Buffalo Creek AT Gardenville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:15 PM EST Friday the stage was 4.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 1.7 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Creeks and streams will continue to run high but water levels
    have fallen below flood stage. Remember to heed all closures
    and warnings from local authorities.
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4288 7889 4288 7857 4278 7856 4278 7861
      4282 7867 4282 7887


$$

NYC029-121-181845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T1740Z/
/LCSN6.1.RS.220217T1906Z.220217T2100Z.220218T0933Z.UU/
1240 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cayuga Creek Near Lancaster.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:30 AM EST Friday the stage was 6.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 4.3 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Creeks and streams will continue to run high but water levels
    have fallen below flood stage. Remember to heed all closures
    and warnings from local authorities.
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4287 7869 4287 7879 4290 7879 4293 7864
      4292 7848 4281 7846


$$

NYC029-181845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220218T1740Z/
/EBZN6.1.RS.220218T0720Z.220218T0945Z.220218T1023Z.UU/
1240 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Cazenovia Creek Near Ebenezer.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:00 PM EST Friday the stage was 7.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 3.2 feet Monday
    morning.
  - Creeks and stream will continue to run high but have fallen
    below flood stage. Remember to follow all closures and
    warnings from authorities.
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4279 7876 4282 7884 4289 7884 4281 7858
      4273 7857 4275 7870


$$

AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue most of today, and a
moisture laden frontal system will bring widespread rainfall. The
combination of snowmelt and rain will increase the risk of flooding,
especially along rivers, creeks, and low lying areas. Rain will
change to an icy mix and then to snow from northwest to southeast
tonight, with moderate snow accumulations across the Niagara
Frontier and Jefferson County. Widespread precipitation will taper
off to scattered snow showers Friday morning, with much colder air
moving back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Unseasonable warmth is in place early this morning with temperatures
well into the 40s areawide, and lower 50s on the lake plains aided
by gusty SSW downslope flow. Widespread rain is now moving into
Niagara County and the eastern Lake Ontario region, and will
continue to overspread the rest of the area this morning.

A complex and impactful synoptic system will cross the area over the
next 24 hours with a myriad of weather concerns ranging from rain
and flooding to snow, ice, and a flash freeze.

Synoptic Setup...

A sharp frontal zone draped from the Southern Plains to southern
Quebec this morning will sag southeast through tonight, crossing our
region this evening. Meanwhile several baroclinic waves will run
northeast along the boundary, enhancing low level convergence,
frontogenesis, and differential thermal advection. A series of mid
level shortwaves will cross the region ahead of a trough digging
into the Great Lakes, and the eastern Great Lakes will remain in the
right entrance region of a strong 160+ knot upper level jet through
the period. 36+ hours of deep SSW flow ahead of the system will
transport a plume of anomalous moisture northward into the eastern
Great Lakes. The quality of moisture and dynamics coming together
will support widespread, moderate to heavy precipitation today and
tonight.

Rainfall...

The scattered showers this morning will give way to widespread
moderate to heavy rain from late morning through this afternoon.
Widespread precipitation will continue tonight, but will transition
to ice and then snow from northwest to southeast as colder air
rushes back into the region. Precipitation totals of 0.75" to 1.25"
are expected while the precipitation is falling as rain, with
additional liquid equivalent then falling as ice and/or snow as
temperatures cool. During the period of freezing rain precipitation
rates will be quite heavy, which will allow for runoff to continue
even with temperatures near or just below freezing.

Winter Weather...

Precipitation will be all rain through late afternoon. The surface
cold front will enter the Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence Valley
by very late afternoon or early evening. The very sharp temperature
gradient will bring a rapid drop in temperatures, with rain changing
to freezing rain by early evening across Niagara and northern
Jefferson counties. The change to ice will then progress steadily
southeast across the area, reaching Allegany County, the western
Finger Lakes, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario by late evening or
midnight. As the shallow wedge of cold air deepens the freezing rain
will mix with, or change to sleet. The wintry mix will last for a
few hours at any given location before the onset of deeper cold
advection allows for a change to snow from northwest to southeast.
The mix may change to snow as early as mid evening across the
Niagara Frontier.

As far as snow amounts go, there will be a very sharp drop off in
snow amounts with the southern edge of heavier snow bisecting the
northern portion of the CWA. Expect 4-7" of snow across Niagara and
Orleans counties and possibly far northern Jefferson County as well.
If precipitation changes to all snow fast enough, low end warning
amounts of over 7" cannot be ruled out in this area. The next row of
counties south, including Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe may see
2-4" of snow, with less than 2" from the interior Southern Tier to
the western Finger Lakes and counties southeast of Lake Ontario. The
southern edge of heavier snow amounts will be very sensitive to the
position and timing of the front, but the past few model runs have
been fairly consistent.

For ice amounts, expect 0.10"-0.20" across much of Western NY and
the North Country, less than 0.10" from the interior Southern Tier
into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario.
Precipitation rates will be quite heavy during the freezing rain, so
there will likely be more QPF falling as freezing rain than these
numbers. High precipitation rates in freezing rain results in very
inefficient conversion to ice, with a large amount of runoff.

Winds...

SSW winds will continue to be quite gusty today, with gusts of 30-40
mph common across the area. Wind gusts will diminish with the
passage of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. There
will be a brief surge of stronger northerly winds overnight behind
the front as colder air rushes back into the region, and this will
bring gusts of 25-35 mph areawide and 40+mph along the south shore
of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures...

It will remain warm today, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
through early to mid afternoon. Temperatures will then plummet from
northwest to southeast late afternoon and tonight with the passage
of the cold front. The rapid drop in temperatures in combination
with a wintry mix changing to snow will likely result in very
hazardous road conditions with ice on untreated surfaces, in some
cases with snow on top.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic air will briefly visit our region Friday, with limited lake
effect snow to the south and southeast of the Lakes. Lake effect
parameters peak midday, and a wealth of dry air by midday at 850 hPa
and higher will keep lake bands shallow. Snow of a couple of inches
is possible southeast of Lake Ontario before the snow tapers off
Friday afternoon.

Friday evening will generally be quiet with some clearing as a
surface ridge passes across the region. This will allow for
temperatures to quickly drop. Overnight lows will occur around or
just after midnight before warming aloft along with an increase in
clouds over a southerly flow will bring rising temperatures late.

Another sharp cold front will reach WNY late in the night as an
Alberta Clipper tracks across southern Canada. Ahead of this feature
snow...enhanced by the lakes...will fall late. An increasing LLJ of
40 knots at 2 to 3K feet and within steep lapse rates will mix down
ahead of the front allowing for southwest winds to increase to
around 35 to 40 mph northeast of the Lakes...creating blowing of
snow...which along with the falling snow will reduce visibilities.
Though brief, this time period late Friday Night will need to be
watched for snow squalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday, models continue to be in good agreement with a strong
shortwave and associated low passing across our region. While the
low will be filling, there will be a strong wind field with this
low, such that with cold air advection behind the front the
increased mixing heights will allow for gusts to at least 40 mph
across much of the region through the day. This cold front, passing
across the region midday, will also produce a burst of snow though
accumulations will be minor with just an inch or two. Though amounts
will be minor, the quick burst of snow with lowering visibilities
could impact travel early Saturday. Temperatures peaking ahead of
the front will likely fall through the afternoon hours.

There will be a brief window for lake effect snow Saturday Night as
the temperatures at 850 hPa plummet to the low negative teens
Celsius. Moisture and convergence looks to be greatest downwind of
Lake Ontario, though there will still be a fair amount of wind shear
through the boundary layer. Areas across the southern Tug Hill and
then southeast of Lake Ontario could receive several inches to
possibly near advisory level snows Saturday Night. Surface high
pressure will ridge across the Lakes later Saturday Night, ending
the lake snows now to the south of the Lakes as winds become
northerly.

As the winds slacken Saturday Night with the approaching surface
high late night radiational cooling conditions will drop temperatures
into the single digits inland, and likely below zero east of Lake
Ontario.

Early next week a long wave trough will develop over the western
coastline of the US, with downstream ridging building northward from
the Southeast. A zonal flow initially will become more
amplified...and active as pieces of energy from the upstream trough
eject across the Plains and towards the Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will bring a dry day Sunday, and possibly
Monday as a frontal boundary lingers just to our west. By Tuesday
and Wednesday this frontal boundary will push eastward, with energy
aloft and moisture advection bringing another period of rainfall to
our region.

Temperatures above normal Sunday will be some 10 degrees or so above
normal Monday and Tuesday bringing another period of snowmelt (for
areas that did not completely melt during this currently warm
spell). Cold air advection later Wednesday will bring temperatures
dropping back to near normal late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through early this morning with a few
light showers crossing the region. A more steady, widespread rain
will continue to overspread the area from west to east this morning
with CIGS/VSBY deteriorating to MVFR. A cold front will then move
southeast across the area this afternoon, with the resulting steep
post-frontal inversion and ongoing moderate to heavy precipitation
allowing widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY to develop this afternoon areawide.

The cold front will introduce a wedge of low level cold air,
allowing rain to change to a period of freezing rain from northwest
to southeast late this afternoon and evening. The freezing rain will
then mix with sleet as colder air deepens slightly, and then to snow
overnight from northwest to southeast. The wintry mix will be
moderate to heavy, with significant impacts to airfield operations
possible. The wintry mix will change to all snow after midnight, and
then taper off to light snow by Friday morning.

Outlook...
Friday...Early morning IFR in snow improving to MVFR/VFR.
Friday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake effect snow
showers and localized IFR possible to the south and southeast of
the Lakes.
Saturday...Snow showers likely with areas of IFR. Windy.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong SSW winds will continue through the first half of today. A
cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes from northwest to
southeast late afternoon and early evening. Winds will temporarily
diminish with the cold frontal passage. A surge of strong northerly
winds will then develop later tonight through Friday morning. This
will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario and
Lake Erie through Friday.

A reinforcing cold front will move across the lake Saturday. Gale
force winds to 35 knots are possible Friday night into Saturday
behind the cold front. A Gale Watch is in effect on Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING LIKELY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire region today
through Friday for multiple flood risks.

Widespread rain today and this evening will change to ice and
then snow tonight. Rainfall amounts of 0.75" to 1.25" are
expected, with additional QPF falling as ice and snow. Very warm
temperatures, higher dewpoints, and a gusty breeze will hasten
snowmelt today. The excessive runoff from rain and rapid
snowmelt will result in significant rises on area rivers,
creeks, and streams. Runoff will also likely result in flooding
of poor drainage areas.

The latest RFC forecasts suggest many of the larger rivers in
Western NY will reach or exceed flood stage, including all the
Buffalo area creeks, Tonawanda Creek, Cattaraugus Creek, the
upper Genesee, upper Allegheny, Black Creek, and Oatka Creek.
This is due to the combination of rain and snowmelt.

There is also a significant risk of ice jam flooding today and
tonight as the rising water aids in ice breakup. The Buffalo
area creeks and Cattaraugus Creek have a significant history of
ice jam flooding and are at greatest risk. Ice jams may result
in localized areas of greater flood impact as high flows back up
behind ice jams.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for NYZ001>003-010>013-
     019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ003-007-010-011-019-085.
     Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Friday evening
     for NYZ004>008-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ004>006-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ012>014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYZ004>006-008-180915-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-180915-
Jefferson-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-013-020-021-180915-
Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-180915-
Niagara-Orleans-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-010-011-019-085-180915-
Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ014-180915-
Ontario-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-180915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-180915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-180915-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock