Gale Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

006 
WHUS71 KBUF 171940
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

LOZ042-180345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
240 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from late Friday night through Saturday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-180345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
240 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds to 30 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from late Friday night through Saturday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-180345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220218T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
240 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-180345-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
240 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

160 
WHUS71 KBUF 172335
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

LOZ030-180745-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.220217T2335Z-220218T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
635 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-180745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220218T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
635 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 
  knots and waves 4 to 7 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 
  35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 1 PM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from late Friday night through Saturday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-180745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
635 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds to 30 
  knots and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Watch, southwest 
  winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST Friday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from late Friday night through Saturday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-180745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220218T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
635 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-180745-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
635 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet 
  possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

539 
WHUS71 KBUF 180839
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

LOZ042-181645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220219T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.220219T0800Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 
  10 to 13 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 3 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-181645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220219T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.220219T1000Z-220220T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 
  13 to 17 feet expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 5 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-181645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-220218T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.220219T0600Z-220219T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southwest winds to 35 knots 
  expected. For the Small Craft Advisory, northwest winds 15 to 
  20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday. 
  For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-181645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.220219T0800Z-220220T0000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-181645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.220219T0600Z-220220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.220219T1000Z-220220T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-181645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-220218T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
339 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1230 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be warm ahead of a cold front through Thursday with
temperatures in the 40s and 50s for much of the area. The
combination of the warm temperatures, causing snowmelt, and a
period of moderate rain will bring flooding concerns Thursday
through Friday evening. The frontal boundary will pass through
the region with colder air moving back in and changing the rain
to a wintry mix of snow and possible freezing rain late Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Temperatures are mainly in the 40s across the region this evening,
with temperatures still in the lower 50s on the lake plains of
Western NY aided by downslope SSW winds. Temperatures will not drop
much overnight, due to warm air advection in a southerly flow which
will downslope and limit radiational cooling tonight. Southerly
winds will continue to be gusty, especially of the Chautauqua Ridge
and Tug Hill where gusts to 40 mph will continue overnight.

Otherwise, showers will periodically move across Western New
York through late tonight. Increasing low level convergence and
moisture ahead of the front will bring steady rain into far
western NY towards daybreak. Southwest flow and increasing
moisture ahead of an embedded stronger low- level jet will
produce rain east of Lake Ontario late tonight into Thursday
morning. Elsewhere and especially interior NYS locations will
remain dry overnight. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire
region through 7 PM Friday for rapid snowmelt and rainfall.

Surface low pressure rides along the cold front as it moves east
Thursday. The front will move into western NY late Thursday morning
and reach north central NY and Finger Lakes to Southern Tier by
Thursday afternoon. Rain will continue across the region with
enhancement across western NY and the Tug Hill region due to an
upslope component from the southwest winds ahead of the front.
Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 40s with temperatures in the 50s
across the region. The combination of 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall and
snowmelt will increase runoff into the streams, creeks and
rivers.

The surface low along the cold front will track to the southeast
Thursday evening while deep layer forcing and moisture increase from
an approaching shortwave trough. Surface low pressure will deepen as
it tracks along the cold front to the southeast. Rainfall intensity
will increase and another 0.5-1.0 inches of rainfall expected
Thursday evening and 0.25-.50 inches across the Finger Lakes. While
cold air advection will be taking place with a northerly wind on the
backside of the surface low, temperatures will still be warm enough
for all rain the first half of Thursday night.

Flood Potential...

The greatest concern is for the potential for ice jam flooding.
The Buffalo Creeks are typically vulnerable to ice jams, and
rainfall amounts enhanced by the stalled boundary combined with
snow melt will cause high flows capable of breaking up any ice
on the creeks. This is a bad combination, and could potentially
cause ice jams with high flows leading to rapid rises and
possibly flash flooding behind ice jams that form. Any ice jam
flooding should initially be more localized through Thursday
morning, with more serious issues possible later Thursday as
flows increase.

The combination of rain and snow melt may also be enough to
cause flooding outside of ice jams. Rainfall total amounts will
average 1.5-2.0 inches across western NY, west of the Genesee
Valley and north central NY with 2-3 inches for the Tug Hill.
Lesser amounts of 0.5-1.0 across the Finger Lakes. RFC forecasts
put multiple forecast points into flood stage. Still uncertainty
in rainfall amounts, but if the above forecast verifies than its
likely that river flood warnings will be needed. The
combination of steady rain and snow melt may even lead to urban
flood issues in the Buffalo metro area. Confidence is increasing
that from stream flow alone, many rivers will reach flood stage
across western NY.

Winter Returns...

First glimpse at 00Z guidance is slightly faster with the cold
air. This would support a changeover to sleet/freezing rain in
Niagara County shortly after sunset, then to all snow by late
evening. Mixed precip then snow would spread southeast during
the night, with a mix reaching Buffalo around 10 p.m. Thursday
night.

Cold air advection ramps up Thursday night and temperatures
dramatically drop below freezing. There will likely be a 1-3
hour period of sleet and freezing rain as rain changes to snow
across the region. Then accumulating snowfall is expected into
Friday. Ice accumulations of a trace to a tenth of an inch
possible. Snow fall amounts of 3-6 inches possible in Niagara
county and 2 to 4 inches possible along the southern shore of
Lake Ontario and across the northern Tug Hill region. Elsewhere,
1-2 inches possible. Very cold with flash freeze conditions
Thursday night into Friday morning. Low temperatures will fall
to the teens to low 20s and wind chill values in the single
digits Friday morning. Winter Weather Headlines are possible
Thursday night into Friday for wintry conditions across western
and north central NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Strong CAA will be ongoing with 850 hPa temps dropping to -15C/-16C
over the lakes by early Friday morning. There may even be some linger
synoptic snows albeit light and enhanced by the lakes through about
mid morning. Accumulations at this point won't be all that much,
maybe an inch or two at best south and southeast of the lakes.
Elsewhere, an inch or less can be expected not impacted by lake snows.
By Friday afternoon, lake snows will be the only game left in town
which will weaken and then head north as we head into Friday evening.

Friday night...weak sfc ridge quickly passes to our north in advance
of a fast moving clipper shortwave. First part of the evening looks
mainly dry but as the evening wares on chances for snow showers will
increase from west to east. Additionally...winds will pick up late
out of the southwest with gusts up to 40 mph, especially northeast
of the lakes which continue into Saturday.

Saturday...cold front quickly crosses the area with a brief uptick
in snow showers activity as CAA ramps up across the region. There
will also be some accumulating lake snows to contend with as over
lake instability increases with 850 hPa temps falling to -17C/-19C.
BUFKIT profiles show equilibriums levels climbing to near 12k feet
and sufficient moisture extending through the DGZ. That said...might
see some decent accumulations east of Lake Ontario. Will need to
keep an eye on this potential but it's only a brief window too see
accumulating snows.

Saturday night...lake snows will weaken and then head north as
southwest flow develops and mid-levels begin to warm. Otherwise...it
should be a largely dry night with sfc ridge passing through the
Ohio valley having an influence on the Lower Lakes. Cold night
anticipated...lows in the single digits east of Lake Ontario with
teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This period will be dominated by a split...Pacific based flow that
will support above normal temperatures through the period. This will
especially be the case during the daylight hours when the mercury
will average a solid 5 to 10 degrees above typical late Feb
normals.

The split flow will be highlighted by another potentially
significant rain maker that will originate in the southern
branch of the unphased jets. Fortunately...broad, flat ridging
over the eastern conus should all but guarantee fair dry weather
to start this period Sunday and Monday.

By Monday night through...energy ejecting out the longwave trough
over the western half of the country will promote cyclogenesis
within the broad southwest flow over the Ohio valley. As we the
case with the initial uncertainty with our current storm
system...the various deterministic models are out of step with
the amount of organization and also with the timing of this next
sfc wave that could produce another significant round of rain
over our region on Tuesday.

Expansive high pressure over the northern plains Tuesday night
should then build across the Great Lakes region for Wednesday with
only spotty leftover rain and wet snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue overnight with a few light showers
crossing the region. A more steady, widespread rain will overspread
the area from west to east this morning with CIGS/VSBY deteriorating
to MVFR. A cold front will then move southeast across the area this
afternoon, with the resulting steep post-frontal inversion and
ongoing moderate to heavy precipitation allowing widespread IFR
CIGS/VSBY to develop this afternoon areawide.

The cold front will introduce a wedge of low level cold air,
allowing rain to change to a period of freezing rain from northwest
to southeast late this afternoon and evening. The freezing rain will
then mix with sleet as colder air deepens slightly, and then to snow
overnight from northwest to southeast. The wintry mix will be
moderate to heavy, with significant impacts to airfield operations
possible. The wintry mix will change to all snow after midnight, and
then taper off to light snow by Friday morning.

Outlook...
Friday...Early morning IFR in snow improving to MVFR/VFR.
Friday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake effect snow
showers and localized IFR possible to the south and southeast of
the Lakes.
Saturday...Snow showers likely with areas of IFR. Windy.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will continue through tonight which will
yield small craft conditions through at least tonight.
Small craft headlines will remain in effect as outlined below.

A cold front will slowly sag across the Lakes Thursday and winds
will slacken with the boundary passing through. However as cold air
advection ramps up Thursday Night a renewed strengthening winds from
the northwest may bring additional small craft conditions to the
lakes and Niagara River.

A reinforcing cold front will move across the lake Saturday. Gale
force winds to 35 knots are possible Friday night into Saturday
behind the cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Friday evening
     for NYZ004>008-014.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for NYZ001>003-010>013-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
654 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

NYZ004>008-014-180000-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
654 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Colder air will build in with rain changing to snow or freezing
rain Thursday night. Several inches of snow accumulation is possible
Thursday night along with some potential for ice. There still
remains uncertainty in the track of the storm which will ultimately
determine how our weather plays out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-180000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
654 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Colder air will build in with rain changing to snow or freezing
rain Thursday night. Several inches of snow accumulation is possible
Thursday night along with some potential for ice. There still
remains uncertainty in the track of the storm which will ultimately
determine how our weather plays out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-180000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
654 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-180000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
654 PM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gales are possible Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel