Alert archive / New York / Areal Flood Warnings in 2022

Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 17, 2022Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this areal flood warning at Feb 17, 2022, 8:50 AM EST for Erie County, New York. It was in force for 35 hr. 17 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2022, 8:50 AM EST (13:50 UTC)
Expired
Feb 18, 2022, 7:36 PM EST
In force
35 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 12 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 17, 12:14 PM ESTFLOOD1 Se Depew, NYTRANSIT RD BETWEEN BROADWAY AND WALDEN CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 12:14 PM ESTFLOOD2 E Eden, NYROUTE 75 IN EDEN CLOSED BETWEEN SCHINTZUS RD AND EAST CHURCH ST DUE TO FLOODING. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 12:37 PM ESTFLOOD1 Ne South Wales, NYERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS REPORTED MINOR FLOODING ON BEHM, EMERY, LOWER EAST HILL, OLD LOWER EAST HILL, CENTER, CENTERLINE, HUNTERS CREEK, VERMONT HILL, AND WARNER HILL ROADS IN AURORA DISTRICT. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 1:23 PM ESTFLOOD3 Ssw Sloan, NYSTEVENSON ST BRIDGE OVER CAZENOVIA CREEK IN BUFFALO CLOSED DUE TO ICE JAMMING AND HIGH FLOWS ON THE CREEK. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 1:30 PM ESTFLOOD2 Nnw North Boston, NYERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS REPORTED THAT HEINRICH ROAD BETWEEN ROUTE 391 AND ECKHART ROAD IS FLOODED FROM RISING WATER ASSOCIATED WITH EIGHTEEN MILE CREEK. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 1:30 PM ESTFLOOD3 Wnw Hamburg, NYERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS REPORTED THAT AMSDELL RD BETWEEN ROUTE 5 AND ROUTE 20 AT THE RAILROAD OVERPASS IS FLOODED OUT AND NOT PASSABLE. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 2:28 PM ESTFLOODEast Aurora, NYROUTE 20A (MAIN ST) IN EAST AURORA CLOSED FROM HAMLIN AVE TO CENTER ST DUE TO FLOODING. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 2:28 PM ESTFLOODEvans, NYROUTE 5 IN EVANS CLOSED FROM BEACH ROAD TO BACKUS ROAD DUE TO FLOODING. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 3:01 PM ESTFLOODBuffalo, NYFLOODING ALONG CAZENOVIA CREEK IN CAZENOVIA PARK IN BUFFALO. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 3:45 PM ESTFLOOD2 Ese Harris Hill, NYWEHRLE DRIVE IN CLARENCE CLOSED BETWEEN HARRIS HILL AND SHISLER ROADS DUE TO FLOODING. FROM ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS.
Feb 17, 3:45 PM ESTFLOOD2 Ne Clarence, NYBARNUM ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN CLARENCE CENTER RD AND MAIN ST (ROUTE 5) DUE TO FLOODING. FROM ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS.
Feb 17, 3:45 PM ESTFLOOD2 Nne Clarence Center, NYLAPP ROAD CLOSED FROM GOODRICH TO SALT ROADS IN CLARENCE DUE TO FLOODING. FROM ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS.
Feb 17, 3:45 PM ESTFLOOD3 Nw Akron, NYMEAHL RD CLOSED BETWEEN SAND HILL RD AND MAPLE RD (ROUTE 93) DUE TO FLOODING. FROM ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS.
Feb 17, 4:12 PM ESTFLOOD1 Ene Angola On The Lak, NYINTERSECTION OF ROUTE 5, BENNETT RD, AND NORTH MAIN ST IN EVANS CENTER CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM ICE JAMMING ON BIG SISTER CREEK. FROM ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS; RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
Feb 17, 7:30 PM ESTFLOOD2 N North Boston, NYECKHARDT ROAD IN BOSTON CLOSED DUE TO RISING WATER FROM EIGHTEENMILE CREEK. FROM ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC WORKS.
Feb 17, 9:00 PM ESTFLOOD3 Nw West Seneca, NYFLOODING ALONG THE BUFFALO RIVER NEAR ELECTRIC AVE. AND CASIMER ST., RESULTING IN THE EVACUATION OF SOME RESIDENTS.
Feb 18, 4:14 PM ESTFLOOD3 Nne Lancaster, NYSTONY ROAD IN LANCASTER CLOSED BETWEEN GENESEE STREET AND PLEASANT VIEW DRIVE DUE TO FLOODING FROM ELLICOTT CREEK; BEGAN AROUND 1 AM FRIDAY PER BUFFALO NEWS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 12 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 414 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1393 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
414 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
435 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

441 
WGUS41 KBUF 171350
FLWBUF

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
850 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYC029-180600-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.W.0002.220217T1350Z-220218T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-
850 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding due to ice jams and urban and small stream 
  flooding is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  county, Erie.

* WHEN...Until 100 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Ice jams will cause flooding today into tonight. Ice 
  jams typically develop on portions of Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, 
  Cazenovia Creek, and the Buffalo River. Depending on ice behavior, 
  any release of the ice jams could result in sudden rises of water, 
  leading to a rapid flooding situation.

The combination of snow melt and rainfall will result in extensive 
areas of standing water in the city of Buffalo and its suburbs. This 
will cause flooding in low-lying areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 840 AM EST, Warm weather and associated snow melt along
    with rainfall will cause area creeks to rise today. This will
    result in ice jams at typically vulnerable locations. There
    also will be areas of standing water in low-lying areas.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected
    in the warned area.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
    Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster,
    Hamburg, East Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Evans,
    Elma, Boston, Eden and Marilla.
  - For more information visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Ice jams are unpredictable. River levels may fluctuate rapidly at 
any time.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7916 4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7891
      4296 7893 4297 7898 4302 7884 4306 7877
      4308 7847 4287 7847 4287 7849 4257 7849


$$

Apffel
5 follow-up statements
459 
WGUS81 KBUF 171735
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1235 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYC029-180600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-
1235 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Urban area and small stream flooding caused by rain and 
  snowmelt continues.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  county, Erie.

* WHEN...Until 100 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Ice jams will cause flooding into tonight. Ice jams 
  typically develop on portions of Cayuga Creek, Buffalo Creek, 
  Cazenovia Creek, and the Buffalo River. Depending on ice behavior, 
  any release of the ice jams could result in sudden rises of water, 
  leading to a rapid flooding situation.

The combination of snow melt and rainfall will result in extensive 
areas of standing water in the city of Buffalo and its suburbs. This 
will cause flooding in low-lying areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1231 PM EST, Warm weather and associated snow melt along
    with rainfall will cause area creeks to continue to rise into
    this evening. This will result in ice jams at typically
    vulnerable locations. There also will be areas of standing
    water in low-lying areas.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are
    possible in the warned area.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
    Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster,
    Hamburg, East Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Evans,
    Elma, Boston, Eden and Marilla.
  - For more information visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Ice jams are unpredictable. River levels may fluctuate rapidly at 
any time.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7916 4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7891
      4296 7893 4297 7898 4302 7884 4306 7877
      4308 7847 4287 7847 4287 7849 4257 7849


$$

JLA
451 
WGUS81 KBUF 172004
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
304 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYC029-180600-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T0600Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-
304 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding due to ice jams and urban and small stream 
  flooding is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  county, Erie.

* WHEN...Until 100 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying 
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Expect many 
  areas of slow moving or standing water. Depending on ice behavior, 
  any release of the ice jam could result in sudden rises of water, 
  leading to a rapid flooding situation.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 303 PM EST, Warm weather and associated snow melt along
    with rainfall will cause area creeks to continue to rise into
    this evening. This will result in ice jams at typically
    vulnerable locations. There also will be areas of standing
    water in low-lying areas.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are
    possible in the warned area.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
    Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster,
    Hamburg, East Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Evans,
    Elma, Boston, Eden and Marilla.
  - For more information visit
    http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Ice jams are unpredictable. River levels may fluctuate rapidly at 
any time.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7916 4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7891
      4296 7893 4297 7898 4302 7884 4306 7877
      4308 7847 4287 7847 4287 7849 4257 7849


$$

JLA
273 
WGUS41 KBUF 180401
FLWBUF

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1101 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYC029-181400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-
1101 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Urban area, small stream and ice jam flooding caused by 
  rain and snowmelt continues.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  county, Erie.

* WHEN...Until 900 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying 
  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Streams 
  continue to rise due to excess runoff from earlier rainfall. 
  Depending on ice behavior, any release of the ice jam could result 
  in sudden rises of water, leading to a rapid flooding situation.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1056 PM EST, Flooding is already occurring in the warned
    area due to a combination of rain, snow melt and ice
    movement. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen.
  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are
    possible in the warned area.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
    Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster,
    Hamburg, East Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Evans,
    Elma, Boston, Eden and Marilla.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Ice jams are unpredictable. River levels may fluctuate rapidly at 
any time.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7916 4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7891
      4296 7893 4297 7898 4302 7884 4306 7877
      4308 7847 4287 7847 4287 7849 4257 7849


$$

TMA
642 
WGUS41 KBUF 181327
FLWBUF

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
827 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

NYC029-190100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220219T0100Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-
827 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Urban area and small stream flooding caused by rain and 
  snowmelt continues.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following 
  county, Erie.

* WHEN...Until 800 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads remain closed due to flooding. Streams 
  continue to rise and remain high due to excess runoff from earlier 
  rainfall.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 817 AM EST, local law enforcement reported high flows on
    area streams and creeks. Flooding is already occurring.
    Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen in addition to
    snowmelt.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
    Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst, Tonawanda, Lancaster,
    Hamburg, East Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Evans,
    Elma, Boston, Eden and Marilla.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become 
unstable and unsafe.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 7916 4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7891
      4296 7893 4297 7898 4302 7884 4306 7877
      4308 7847 4287 7847 4287 7849 4257 7849


$$

AR
490 
WGUS81 KBUF 190036 RRA
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
736 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

NYC029-190046-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220219T0100Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie NY-
736 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for a portion of western New York, 
including the following county, Erie.

No new flooding is expected, however caution should be exercised in 
areas where previous flooding has occurred. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.


LAT...LON 4258 7916 4280 7892 4284 7893 4292 7891
      4296 7893 4297 7898 4302 7884 4306 7877
      4308 7847 4287 7847 4287 7849 4257 7849


$$

SJW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Feb 17, 6:20 AM EST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 6:20 AM EST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
620 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue most of today, and a
moisture laden frontal system will bring widespread rainfall. The
combination of snowmelt and rain will increase the risk of flooding,
especially along rivers, creeks, and low lying areas. Rain will
change to an icy mix and then to snow from northwest to southeast
tonight, with moderate snow accumulations across the Niagara
Frontier and Jefferson County. Widespread precipitation will taper
off to scattered snow showers Friday morning, with much colder air
moving back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Unseasonable warmth is in place early this morning with temperatures
well into the 40s areawide, and lower 50s on the lake plains aided
by gusty SSW downslope flow. Widespread rain is now moving into
Niagara County and the eastern Lake Ontario region, and will
continue to overspread the rest of the area this morning.

A complex and impactful synoptic system will cross the area over the
next 24 hours with a myriad of weather concerns ranging from rain
and flooding to snow, ice, and a flash freeze.

Synoptic Setup...

A sharp frontal zone draped from the Southern Plains to southern
Quebec this morning will sag southeast through tonight, crossing our
region this evening. Meanwhile several baroclinic waves will run
northeast along the boundary, enhancing low level convergence,
frontogenesis, and differential thermal advection. A series of mid
level shortwaves will cross the region ahead of a trough digging
into the Great Lakes, and the eastern Great Lakes will remain in the
right entrance region of a strong 160+ knot upper level jet through
the period. 36+ hours of deep SSW flow ahead of the system will
transport a plume of anomalous moisture northward into the eastern
Great Lakes. The quality of moisture and dynamics coming together
will support widespread, moderate to heavy precipitation today and
tonight.

Rainfall...

The scattered showers this morning will give way to widespread
moderate to heavy rain from late morning through this afternoon.
Widespread precipitation will continue tonight, but will transition
to ice and then snow from northwest to southeast as colder air
rushes back into the region. Precipitation totals of 0.75" to 1.25"
are expected while the precipitation is falling as rain, with
additional liquid equivalent then falling as ice and/or snow as
temperatures cool. During the period of freezing rain precipitation
rates will be quite heavy, which will allow for runoff to continue
even with temperatures near or just below freezing.

Winter Weather...

Precipitation will be all rain through late afternoon. The surface
cold front will enter the Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence Valley
by very late afternoon or early evening. The very sharp temperature
gradient will bring a rapid drop in temperatures, with rain changing
to freezing rain by early evening across Niagara and northern
Jefferson counties. The change to ice will then progress steadily
southeast across the area, reaching Allegany County, the western
Finger Lakes, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario by late evening or
midnight. As the shallow wedge of cold air deepens the freezing rain
will mix with, or change to sleet. The wintry mix will last for a
few hours at any given location before the onset of deeper cold
advection allows for a change to snow from northwest to southeast.
The mix may change to snow as early as mid evening across the
Niagara Frontier.

As far as snow amounts go, there will be a very sharp drop off in
snow amounts with the southern edge of heavier snow bisecting the
northern portion of the CWA. Expect 4-7" of snow across Niagara and
Orleans counties and possibly far northern Jefferson County as well.
If precipitation changes to all snow fast enough, low end warning
amounts of over 7" cannot be ruled out in this area. The next row of
counties south, including Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe may see
2-4" of snow, with less than 2" from the interior Southern Tier to
the western Finger Lakes and counties southeast of Lake Ontario. The
southern edge of heavier snow amounts will be very sensitive to the
position and timing of the front, but the past few model runs have
been fairly consistent.

For ice amounts, expect 0.10"-0.20" across much of Western NY and
the North Country, less than 0.10" from the interior Southern Tier
into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario.
Precipitation rates will be quite heavy during the freezing rain, so
there will likely be more QPF falling as freezing rain than these
numbers. High precipitation rates in freezing rain results in very
inefficient conversion to ice, with a large amount of runoff.

Winds...

SSW winds will continue to be quite gusty today, with gusts of 30-40
mph common across the area. Wind gusts will diminish with the
passage of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. There
will be a brief surge of stronger northerly winds overnight behind
the front as colder air rushes back into the region, and this will
bring gusts of 25-35 mph areawide and 40+mph along the south shore
of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures...

It will remain warm today, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
through early to mid afternoon. Temperatures will then plummet from
northwest to southeast late afternoon and tonight with the passage
of the cold front. The rapid drop in temperatures in combination
with a wintry mix changing to snow will likely result in very
hazardous road conditions with ice on untreated surfaces, in some
cases with snow on top.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic air will briefly visit our region Friday, with limited lake
effect snow to the south and southeast of the Lakes. Lake effect
parameters peak midday, and a wealth of dry air by midday at 850 hPa
and higher will keep lake bands shallow. Snow of a couple of inches
is possible southeast of Lake Ontario before the snow tapers off
Friday afternoon.

Friday evening will generally be quiet with some clearing as a
surface ridge passes across the region. This will allow for
temperatures to quickly drop. Overnight lows will occur around or
just after midnight before warming aloft along with an increase in
clouds over a southerly flow will bring rising temperatures late.

Another sharp cold front will reach WNY late in the night as an
Alberta Clipper tracks across southern Canada. Ahead of this feature
snow...enhanced by the lakes...will fall late. An increasing LLJ of
40 knots at 2 to 3K feet and within steep lapse rates will mix down
ahead of the front allowing for southwest winds to increase to
around 35 to 40 mph northeast of the Lakes...creating blowing of
snow...which along with the falling snow will reduce visibilities.
Though brief, this time period late Friday Night will need to be
watched for snow squalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday, models continue to be in good agreement with a strong
shortwave and associated low passing across our region. While the
low will be filling, there will be a strong wind field with this
low, such that with cold air advection behind the front the
increased mixing heights will allow for gusts to at least 40 mph
across much of the region through the day. This cold front, passing
across the region midday, will also produce a burst of snow though
accumulations will be minor with just an inch or two. Though amounts
will be minor, the quick burst of snow with lowering visibilities
could impact travel early Saturday. Temperatures peaking ahead of
the front will likely fall through the afternoon hours.

There will be a brief window for lake effect snow Saturday Night as
the temperatures at 850 hPa plummet to the low negative teens
Celsius. Moisture and convergence looks to be greatest downwind of
Lake Ontario, though there will still be a fair amount of wind shear
through the boundary layer. Areas across the southern Tug Hill and
then southeast of Lake Ontario could receive several inches to
possibly near advisory level snows Saturday Night. Surface high
pressure will ridge across the Lakes later Saturday Night, ending
the lake snows now to the south of the Lakes as winds become
northerly.

As the winds slacken Saturday Night with the approaching surface
high late night radiational cooling conditions will drop temperatures
into the single digits inland, and likely below zero east of Lake
Ontario.

Early next week a long wave trough will develop over the western
coastline of the US, with downstream ridging building northward from
the Southeast. A zonal flow initially will become more
amplified...and active as pieces of energy from the upstream trough
eject across the Plains and towards the Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will bring a dry day Sunday, and possibly
Monday as a frontal boundary lingers just to our west. By Tuesday
and Wednesday this frontal boundary will push eastward, with energy
aloft and moisture advection bringing another period of rainfall to
our region.

Temperatures above normal Sunday will be some 10 degrees or so above
normal Monday and Tuesday bringing another period of snowmelt (for
areas that did not completely melt during this currently warm
spell). Cold air advection later Wednesday will bring temperatures
dropping back to near normal late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through early this morning with a few
light showers crossing the region. A more steady, widespread rain
will continue to overspread the area from west to east this morning
with CIGS/VSBY deteriorating to MVFR. A cold front will then move
southeast across the area this afternoon, with the resulting steep
post-frontal inversion and ongoing moderate to heavy precipitation
allowing widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY to develop this afternoon areawide.

The cold front will introduce a wedge of low level cold air,
allowing rain to change to a period of freezing rain from northwest
to southeast late this afternoon and evening. The freezing rain will
then mix with sleet as colder air deepens slightly, and then to snow
overnight from northwest to southeast. The wintry mix will be
moderate to heavy, with significant impacts to airfield operations
possible. The wintry mix will change to all snow after midnight, and
then taper off to light snow by Friday morning.

Outlook...
Friday...Early morning IFR in snow improving to MVFR/VFR.
Friday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake effect snow
showers and localized IFR possible to the south and southeast of
the Lakes.
Saturday...Snow showers likely with areas of IFR. Windy.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong SSW winds will continue through the first half of today. A
cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes from northwest to
southeast late afternoon and early evening. Winds will temporarily
diminish with the cold frontal passage. A surge of strong northerly
winds will then develop later tonight through Friday morning. This
will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario and
Lake Erie through Friday.

A reinforcing cold front will move across the lake Saturday. Gale
force winds to 35 knots are possible Friday night into Saturday
behind the cold front. A Gale Watch is in effect on Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING LIKELY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire region today
through Friday for multiple flood risks.

Widespread rain today and this evening will change to ice and
then snow tonight. Rainfall amounts of 0.75" to 1.25" are
expected, with additional QPF falling as ice and snow. Very warm
temperatures, higher dewpoints, and a gusty breeze will hasten
snowmelt today. The excessive runoff from rain and rapid
snowmelt will result in significant rises on area rivers,
creeks, and streams. Runoff will also likely result in flooding
of poor drainage areas.

The latest RFC forecasts suggest many of the larger rivers in
Western NY will reach or exceed flood stage, including all the
Buffalo area creeks, Tonawanda Creek, Cattaraugus Creek, the
upper Genesee, upper Allegheny, Black Creek, and Oatka Creek.
This is due to the combination of rain and snowmelt.

There is also a significant risk of ice jam flooding today and
tonight as the rising water aids in ice breakup. The Buffalo
area creeks and Cattaraugus Creek have a significant history of
ice jam flooding and are at greatest risk. Ice jams may result
in localized areas of greater flood impact as high flows back up
behind ice jams.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for NYZ001>003-010>013-
     019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ003-007-010-011-019-085.
     Flood Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through Friday evening
     for NYZ004>008-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ004>006-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ012>014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 17, 4:05 AM EST, 4 hours 45 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYZ004>006-008-180915-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-180915-
Jefferson-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-013-020-021-180915-
Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-180915-
Niagara-Orleans-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-010-011-019-085-180915-
Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ014-180915-
Ontario-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-180915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-180915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-180915-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 3:31 AM ESTGale WatchBUF24 hr
Feb 17, 3:38 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more29 hr
Feb 17, 6:34 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFErie33 hr
Feb 17, 6:34 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFErie, Wyoming36 hr
Feb 17, 6:34 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFErie, Wyoming38 hr
Feb 17, 8:31 AM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie35 hr
Feb 17, 10:18 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus4 days
Feb 17, 10:18 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus43 hr
Feb 17, 11:39 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFErie, Genesee25 hr
Feb 17, 11:39 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFGenesee, Monroe4 days
Feb 17, 11:39 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Livingston, Wyoming25 hr
Feb 17, 11:39 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming19 hr
Feb 17, 11:39 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFErie, Genesee, Niagara, Wyoming48 hr
Feb 17, 11:39 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningBUFAllegany, Livingston, Wyoming43 hr
Feb 17, 1:15 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningBUFNiagara, Orleans20 hr
Feb 17, 5:00 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFMonroe46 hr
Feb 17, 6:35 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF18 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in New York, 2022Every areal flood warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.