Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

036 
WWUS41 KBUF 180215
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
915 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYZ001-002-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
915 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. Rain will change over to
  freezing rain and sleet before midnight and persist through the
  evening hours. Mixed precipitation will change to moderate snow
  late this evening and continue into Friday morning.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The combination of
  ice, snow, and rapidly falling temperatures will result in very
  difficult conditions for driving by Friday morning. Standing
  water from earlier rainfall will also pose a risk of icy
  conditions tonight into Friday morning. Snow will reduce 
  visibility tonight. The snow will taper off early Friday 
  morning, but roads will remain very slippery through the Friday 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow and ice will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ003-010-011-019-085-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
915 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Mixed precipitation and snow
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice
  accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Monroe, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The combination of ice,
  snow, and rapidly falling temperatures will result in icy and
  snow covered roads. Snow will reduce visibility tonight. The
  snow will taper off early Friday morning, but roads may remain
  very slippery through the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-020-021-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
and Wellsville
915 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Mixed precipitation expected. Total
  snow accumulations of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of
  around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may be very difficult. The combination of ice,
  light snow, and rapidly falling temperatures will result in icy
  and snow covered roads. The precipitation will taper off early 
  Friday morning, but roads may remain very slippery through the 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-008-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.220218T0400Z-220218T1400Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, and Lowville
915 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 2 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel may be very difficult. The combination of ice,
  light snow, and rapidly falling temperatures will result in icy
  and snow covered roads. The precipitation will taper off early 
  Friday morning, but roads may remain very slippery through the 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-181015-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
915 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of 
  an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Jefferson county. Greatest snow amounts near the Saint
  Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. The combination of ice,
  snow, and rapidly falling temperatures will result in icy and
  snow covered roads. Snow will reduce visibility tonight. The
  snow will taper off early Friday morning, but roads may remain
  very slippery through the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA

253 
WWUS41 KBUF 180836
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

NYZ001-002-181400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. The
  combination of a wintry mix and rapidly falling temperatures
  last night will continue to produce icy and hazardous roads this
  morning, with snow accumulation on top of ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-008-181645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0007.220219T1200Z-220220T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation and
  snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow
  possible. Total snow accumulations of over 8 inches possible in
  the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill. Winds could
  gust as high as 45 mph producing extensive blowing and drifting
  snow.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 9 AM EST this 
  morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning 
  through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. The
  combination of a wintry mix and rapidly falling temperatures
  last night will continue to produce icy and hazardous roads this
  morning, with snow accumulation on top of ice. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-181645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0007.220219T1200Z-220220T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, mixed precipitation and
  snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow
  possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible in
  the most persistent lake snows across the Tug Hill. Winds could
  gust as high as 50 mph producing extensive blowing and drifting
  snow.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 9 AM EST this 
  morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning 
  through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. The
  combination of a wintry mix and rapidly falling temperatures
  last night will continue to produce icy and hazardous roads this
  morning, with snow accumulation on top of ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ003-010-011-019-085-181400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Rochester, Buffalo, Batavia, Jamestown, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Monroe, Erie, Genesee, and Chautauqua counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. The
  combination of a wintry mix and rapidly falling temperatures
  last night will continue to produce icy and hazardous roads this
  morning, with snow accumulation on top of ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-020-021-181400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
and Wellsville
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation and snow. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches and ice accumulations of a few 
  hundredths of an inch.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. The
  combination of a wintry mix and rapidly falling temperatures
  last night will continue to produce icy and hazardous roads this
  morning, with snow accumulation on top of ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-181400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
336 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation and snow. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 1 to 2 inches and ice accumulations of a few 
  hundredths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult this morning. The
  combination of a wintry mix and rapidly falling temperatures
  last night will continue to produce icy and hazardous roads this
  morning, with snow accumulation on top of ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

271 
WWUS41 KBUF 181406
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
906 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

NYZ001-002-181515-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
906 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Scattered snow showers will diminish this morning. Little if any
additional snow accumulation will occur. However, visibility may 
be as low as one-half mile during heavier snow showers.

$$

NYZ006>008-182215-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0007.220219T1200Z-220220T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
906 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-010>014-019>021-085-181515-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-220218T1400Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Buffalo, 
Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Jamestown, Olean, 
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
906 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Scattered snow showers will diminish this morning. Little if any
additional snow accumulation will occur. However, visibility may 
be as low as one-half mile during heavier snow showers.

$$

JLA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1014 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue most of today, and a
moisture laden frontal system will bring widespread rainfall. The
combination of snowmelt and rain will increase the risk of flooding,
especially along rivers, creeks, and low lying areas. Rain will
change to an icy mix and then to snow from northwest to southeast
tonight, with moderate snow accumulations across the Niagara
Frontier and Jefferson County. Widespread precipitation will taper
off to scattered snow showers Friday morning, with much colder air
moving back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
National radar shows rain extending from the Lower Mississippi
Valley across the Ohio Valley into western and north central NY this
morning. A complex and impactful synoptic system will cross the area
over the next 24 hours with a myriad of weather concerns ranging
from rain and flooding to snow, ice, and a flash freeze.

Unseasonable warmth is in place early this morning with temperatures
well into the 40s areawide, and lower 50s on the lake plains aided
by gusty SSW downslope flow. Widespread rain will continue across
the forecast area this morning with amounts ranging from 0.30-0.60
across the Niagara Frontier and less than 0.25 inches elsewhere from
the last 6 hours.

Synoptic Setup...

A sharp frontal zone draped from the Southern Plains to southern
Quebec this morning will sag southeast through tonight, crossing our
region this evening. Meanwhile several baroclinic waves will run
northeast along the boundary, enhancing low level convergence,
frontogenesis, and differential thermal advection. A series of mid
level shortwaves will cross the region ahead of a trough digging
into the Great Lakes, and the eastern Great Lakes will remain in the
right entrance region of a strong 160+ knot upper level jet through
the period. 36+ hours of deep SSW flow ahead of the system will
transport a plume of anomalous moisture northward into the eastern
Great Lakes. The quality of moisture and dynamics coming together
will support widespread, moderate to heavy precipitation today and
tonight.

Rainfall...

Widespread precipitation will continue tonight, but will transition
to ice and then snow from northwest to southeast as colder air
rushes back into the region. Precipitation totals of 0.75" to 1.25"
are expected while the precipitation is falling as rain, with
additional liquid equivalent then falling as ice and/or snow as
temperatures cool. During the period of freezing rain precipitation
rates will be quite heavy, which will allow for runoff to continue
even with temperatures near or just below freezing.

Winter Weather...

Precipitation will be all rain through late afternoon. The surface
cold front will enter the Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence Valley
by very late afternoon or early evening. The very sharp temperature
gradient will bring a rapid drop in temperatures, with rain changing
to freezing rain by early evening across Niagara and northern
Jefferson counties. The change to ice will then progress steadily
southeast across the area, reaching Allegany County, the western
Finger Lakes, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario by late evening or
midnight. As the shallow wedge of cold air deepens the freezing rain
will mix with, or change to sleet. The wintry mix will last for a
few hours at any given location before the onset of deeper cold
advection allows for a change to snow from northwest to southeast.
The mix may change to snow as early as mid evening across the
Niagara Frontier.

As far as snow amounts go, there will be a very sharp drop off in
snow amounts with the southern edge of heavier snow bisecting the
northern portion of the CWA. Expect 4-7" of snow across Niagara and
Orleans counties and possibly far northern Jefferson County as well.
If precipitation changes to all snow fast enough, low end warning
amounts of over 7" cannot be ruled out in this area. The next row of
counties south, including Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Monroe may see
2-4" of snow, with less than 2" from the interior Southern Tier to
the western Finger Lakes and counties southeast of Lake Ontario. The
southern edge of heavier snow amounts will be very sensitive to the
position and timing of the front, but the past few model runs have
been fairly consistent.

For ice amounts, expect 0.10"-0.20" across much of Western NY and
the North Country, less than 0.10" from the interior Southern Tier
into the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario.
Precipitation rates will be quite heavy during the freezing rain, so
there will likely be more QPF falling as freezing rain than these
numbers. High precipitation rates in freezing rain results in very
inefficient conversion to ice, with a large amount of runoff.

Winds...

SSW winds will continue to be quite gusty today, with gusts of 30-40
mph common across the area. Wind gusts will diminish with the
passage of the cold front late this afternoon and evening. There
will be a brief surge of stronger northerly winds overnight behind
the front as colder air rushes back into the region, and this will
bring gusts of 25-35 mph areawide and 40+mph along the south shore
of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures...

It will remain warm today, with temperatures in the 40s and 50s
through early to mid afternoon. Temperatures will then plummet from
northwest to southeast late afternoon and tonight with the passage
of the cold front. The rapid drop in temperatures in combination
with a wintry mix changing to snow will likely result in very
hazardous road conditions with ice on untreated surfaces, in some
cases with snow on top.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Arctic air will briefly visit our region Friday, with limited lake
effect snow to the south and southeast of the Lakes. Lake effect
parameters peak midday, and a wealth of dry air by midday at 850 hPa
and higher will keep lake bands shallow. Snow of a couple of inches
is possible southeast of Lake Ontario before the snow tapers off
Friday afternoon.

Friday evening will generally be quiet with some clearing as a
surface ridge passes across the region. This will allow for
temperatures to quickly drop. Overnight lows will occur around or
just after midnight before warming aloft along with an increase in
clouds over a southerly flow will bring rising temperatures late.

Another sharp cold front will reach WNY late in the night as an
Alberta Clipper tracks across southern Canada. Ahead of this feature
snow...enhanced by the lakes...will fall late. An increasing LLJ of
40 knots at 2 to 3K feet and within steep lapse rates will mix down
ahead of the front allowing for southwest winds to increase to
around 35 to 40 mph northeast of the Lakes...creating blowing of
snow...which along with the falling snow will reduce visibilities.
Though brief, this time period late Friday Night will need to be
watched for snow squalls.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday, models continue to be in good agreement with a strong
shortwave and associated low passing across our region. While the
low will be filling, there will be a strong wind field with this
low, such that with cold air advection behind the front the
increased mixing heights will allow for gusts to at least 40 mph
across much of the region through the day. This cold front, passing
across the region midday, will also produce a burst of snow though
accumulations will be minor with just an inch or two. Though amounts
will be minor, the quick burst of snow with lowering visibilities
could impact travel early Saturday. Temperatures peaking ahead of
the front will likely fall through the afternoon hours.

There will be a brief window for lake effect snow Saturday Night as
the temperatures at 850 hPa plummet to the low negative teens
Celsius. Moisture and convergence looks to be greatest downwind of
Lake Ontario, though there will still be a fair amount of wind shear
through the boundary layer. Areas across the southern Tug Hill and
then southeast of Lake Ontario could receive several inches to
possibly near advisory level snows Saturday Night. Surface high
pressure will ridge across the Lakes later Saturday Night, ending
the lake snows now to the south of the Lakes as winds become
northerly.

As the winds slacken Saturday Night with the approaching surface
high late night radiational cooling conditions will drop temperatures
into the single digits inland, and likely below zero east of Lake
Ontario.

Early next week a long wave trough will develop over the western
coastline of the US, with downstream ridging building northward from
the Southeast. A zonal flow initially will become more
amplified...and active as pieces of energy from the upstream trough
eject across the Plains and towards the Great Lakes.

Surface high pressure will bring a dry day Sunday, and possibly
Monday as a frontal boundary lingers just to our west. By Tuesday
and Wednesday this frontal boundary will push eastward, with energy
aloft and moisture advection bringing another period of rainfall to
our region.

Temperatures above normal Sunday will be some 10 degrees or so above
normal Monday and Tuesday bringing another period of snowmelt (for
areas that did not completely melt during this currently warm
spell). Cold air advection later Wednesday will bring temperatures
dropping back to near normal late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Steady, widespread rain will continue to overspread the area
this morning with CIGS/VSBY deteriorating to MVFR. A cold front
will then move southeast across the area this afternoon, with
the resulting steep post-frontal inversion and ongoing moderate
to heavy precipitation allowing widespread IFR CIGS/VSBY to
develop this afternoon areawide. Added low level wind shear to
the TAFs this morning as there is little mixing with 50kts at 2k
feet. The low level jet will weaken by this afternoon.

The cold front will introduce a wedge of low level cold air,
allowing rain to change to a period of freezing rain from northwest
to southeast late this afternoon and evening. The freezing rain will
then mix with sleet as colder air deepens slightly, and then to snow
overnight from northwest to southeast. The wintry mix will be
moderate to heavy, with significant impacts to airfield operations
possible. The wintry mix will change to all snow after midnight, and
then taper off to light snow by Friday morning.

Outlook...
Friday...Early morning IFR in snow improving to MVFR/VFR.
Friday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake effect snow
showers and localized IFR possible to the south and southeast of
the Lakes.
Saturday...Snow showers likely with areas of IFR. Windy.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong SSW winds will continue through the first half of today. A
cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes from northwest to
southeast late afternoon and early evening. Winds will temporarily
diminish with the cold frontal passage. A surge of strong northerly
winds will then develop later tonight through Friday morning. This
will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Ontario and
Lake Erie through Friday.

A reinforcing cold front will move across the lake Saturday. Gale
force winds to 35 knots are possible Friday night into Saturday
behind the cold front. A Gale Watch is in effect on Lake Ontario.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING LIKELY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire region today
through Friday for multiple flood risks.

Widespread rain today and this evening will change to ice and
then snow tonight. Rainfall amounts of 0.75" to 1.25" are
expected, with additional QPF falling as ice and snow. Very warm
temperatures, higher dewpoints, and a gusty breeze will hasten
snowmelt today. The excessive runoff from rain and rapid
snowmelt will result in significant rises on area rivers,
creeks, and streams. Runoff will also likely result in flooding
of poor drainage areas.

The latest RFC forecasts suggest many of the larger rivers in
Western NY will reach or exceed flood stage, including all the
Buffalo area creeks, Tonawanda Creek, Cattaraugus Creek, the
upper Genesee, upper Allegheny, Black Creek, and Oatka Creek.
This is due to the combination of rain and snowmelt.

There is also a significant risk of ice jam flooding today and
tonight as the rising water aids in ice breakup. The Buffalo
area creeks and Cattaraugus Creek have a significant history of
ice jam flooding and are at greatest risk. Ice jams may result
in localized areas of greater flood impact as high flows back up
behind ice jams.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through Friday evening for NYZ001>008-010>014-
     019>021-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ003-007-010-011-019-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ004>006-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ001-002.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
     Friday for NYZ012>014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
         evening for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYZ004>006-008-180915-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-180915-
Jefferson-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-013-020-021-180915-
Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-180915-
Niagara-Orleans-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-010-011-019-085-180915-
Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ014-180915-
Ontario-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-180915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-180915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-180915-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
405 AM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock