Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Topeka, KS

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WWUS53 KTOP 100522
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSC029-100600-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-210710T0600Z/
Cloud-
1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CLOUD COUNTY...

At 1222 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles northwest of Clyde to 8 miles northeast of
Glasco, moving southeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Concordia, Clyde, Jamestown and Aurora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 9737 3947 9793 3965 9793 3965 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 297DEG 53KT 3963 9748 3946 9774 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CP

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSC029-100600-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-210710T0600Z/
Cloud-
1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY...

At 1248 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles east of Morganville to 3 miles east of
Miltonvale, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Clyde and Aurora. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3942 9737 3945 9770 3962 9751 3965 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 284DEG 52KT 3948 9712 3936 9738 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CP/BB

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSC029-100609-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0102.000000T0000Z-210710T0600Z/
Cloud-
1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 100 AM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3942 9737 3945 9770 3962 9751 3965 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0559Z 275DEG 46KT 3947 9695 3935 9721 

$$
CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

The main focus for this forecast is the threat for storms tonight
and tomorrow.

This afternoon, a warm front continues to push north across the
central Plains. Eastern Kansas is firmly within the warm sector
and despite temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s we
are likely still well capped. This is evident by the lack of
surface-based cumulus development and elevated cloud bases.
Indications are that we will remain capped all day today and even
through the night.

A better chance of storms arrives tonight as a mid-level wave
kicks off an MCS across the high Plains. The 12 UTC CAM suite is
in fairly good agreement on the evolution of the MCS tonight.
They have the MCS entering northern KS after midnight and exiting
our area by 5 AM. If the MCS can maintain a developed cold pool
and stay balanced enough through its life-cycle then it has the
potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall. However,
most indications are that it will weaken as it enters our area and
encounters a robust mid-level cap.

The evolution of Saturday will be dependent on overnight/morning
convection and cloud cover. Scattered showers and isolated storms
may linger into the morning as a surface low and cold front
pushes into the area. There is uncertainty as to timing and
severity of any development later in the day as some guidance
suggests showers and cloud cover will limit afternoon instability
and some have the cold front almost out of our area by peak
heating. The most likely location for afternoon/evening storms at
this time is along and south of the I-35 corridor. Hail, damaging
wind and heavy rain will be the main threats with any storms that
develop Saturday afternoon/evening.

The upper trough associated with this system becomes a closed low
Saturday night over the MS River Valley. This will leave eastern
Kansas in a position to receive wrap-around precipitation in the
form of heavy showers as forecast soundings indicate a fully
saturated sounding and PWATs around 1.75 inches. A potentially
active pattern may continue into next week as additional waves
meander through the flow into the middle of the week. Otherwise,
expect cooler temperatures for the weekend behind the front with
highs in the 70s and 80s, followed by a warm-up back into the 90s
for the start of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period. Ongoing
thunderstorms across western NE should make their way towards the
terminals after 06Z. Brief reductions of VSBY and gusty northwest
winds should be the primary concerns. That round of storms should
clear the terminals shortly after sunrise. Additional storms are
possible Saturday afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020-034.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110300-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are likely tonight into
early Saturday morning. Damaging wind with locally heavy rainfall
are the main hazards. The best potential for these severe storms
appears to be along and north of Interstate 70, where a severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect through 5 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon for areas
along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Large hail, damaging
wind, and heavy rainfall are the main threats with any storms
that
develop Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep