Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Satellite depicts a busy pattern across the area for July, as the
upper ridge holds over the Great Basin and a longwave trof drops
southward into the central US. Surface front associated with this
trof is a bit diffuse in observation data, but radar and satellite
suggest the boundary has moved into the far southern CWA. Showers
and thunderstorms are beginning to redevelop along the front, as
the leading side of the upper wave drops southward across the
state. CAPE in the column recovers into the 1500-3k range through
the afternoon, with low level shear a bit less organized but
effective shear in the column more respectable in the 35-45 kt
range. Next piece of energy rotates into the state from the north
this afternoon and into the evening hours, bringing with it cooler
temperatures aloft, boosting instability and CAPE, and bringing
another round of storms into the area as already evident in
eastern Nebraska. These storms will also have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall if they can train over the same areas,
although the system itself will likely keep the storms moving
quickly to the southeast. Wind and hail will be the primary
hazards.

Some showers may linger into the overnight hours as the cold pool
and upper trof axis moves overhead, but otherwise Sunday is
shaping up to be on the cool side of normal with highs in the 70s
and northerly winds through the day. Upper trof is then slow to
move off to the east, and could wrap a few showers back around the
west side into our area on Monday, but cooler temperatures
continue with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Overall pattern becomes more zonal mid to late week, moderating
temperatures more near normal, and leaving the frontal boundary
draped across the central US and as a focal point for periodic
rain chances. A stronger shortwave trof is forecast to move
through the flow late week into next weekend, and potentially
increasing rain chances late in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

A broken line of storms will progress through the Topeka terminals
over the next hour or two. A brief reduction of VSBY is possible,
otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the evening before
MVFR stratus overspreads the area. In addition, scattered showers
will be possible overnight. CIGS should scatter near midday with
showers ending as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms in Nebraska this afternoon will move southward
across eastern and central Kansas through the late afternoon and
evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe, with the
greatest potential in east central Kansas. Large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rain will be possible with the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ010-011-023-102300-
Pottawatomie-Nemaha-Marshall-
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE...
SOUTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Frankfort, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blaine, Onaga, Wheaton and Lillis.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3964 9600 3937 9620 3956 9659 3957 9658
      3957 9660 3958 9663 3971 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 292DEG 41KT 3961 9646

Reese

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLUE RAPIDS             39.68N 96.66W
07/10/2021  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ022-023-036-038-102315-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Pottawatomie-Riley-
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GEARY...SOUTHEASTERN
RILEY...NORTHERN WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Louisville to 5 miles east
of Milford Lake. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, St. Marys, Ogden, St. George, Belvue and
Louisville.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 306 and 329.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3925 9603 3913 9604 3897 9654 3914 9684
      3939 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 295DEG 37KT 3931 9626 3912 9682

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
554 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ022-035-036-102330-
Geary-Dickinson-Riley-
554 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DICKINSON...GEARY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL RILEY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Solomon to 3 miles west of Ogden. Movement
was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Junction City, Abilene, Grandview Plaza, Chapman, Solomon,
Enterprise, Carlton and Moonlight.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 267 and 307.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3894 9737 3915 9680 3898 9651 3887 9680
      3887 9689 3883 9689 3864 9737 3891 9737
      3893 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 326DEG 28KT 3889 9737 3910 9678

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ024-026-039-102345-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Jackson-
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 616 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Hoyt, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Topeka, Tecumseh, Meriden, Hoyt, Perry Lake and
Grantville.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 184 and 188.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3913 9532 3907 9542 3907 9545 3906 9548
      3906 9550 3902 9550 3899 9554 3919 9579
      3930 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 304DEG 27KT 3919 9568

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ026-040-110015-
Jefferson-Douglas-
647 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Perry, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Eudora, Perry, McLouth, Lecompton, Williamstown and Perry
Lake.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 195 and 205.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3879 9506 3908 9553 3922 9544 3919 9518
      3913 9518 3913 9519 3897 9519 3896 9517
      3897 9516 3897 9511 3895 9509 3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 294DEG 31KT 3911 9540

Flanagan/Baerg