Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
133 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Satellite depicts a busy pattern across the area for July, as the
upper ridge holds over the Great Basin and a longwave trof drops
southward into the central US. Surface front associated with this
trof is a bit diffuse in observation data, but radar and satellite
suggest the boundary has moved into the far southern CWA. Showers
and thunderstorms are beginning to redevelop along the front, as
the leading side of the upper wave drops southward across the
state. CAPE in the column recovers into the 1500-3k range through
the afternoon, with low level shear a bit less organized but
effective shear in the column more respectable in the 35-45 kt
range. Next piece of energy rotates into the state from the north
this afternoon and into the evening hours, bringing with it cooler
temperatures aloft, boosting instability and CAPE, and bringing
another round of storms into the area as already evident in
eastern Nebraska. These storms will also have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall if they can train over the same areas,
although the system itself will likely keep the storms moving
quickly to the southeast. Wind and hail will be the primary
hazards.

Some showers may linger into the overnight hours as the cold pool
and upper trof axis moves overhead, but otherwise Sunday is
shaping up to be on the cool side of normal with highs in the 70s
and northerly winds through the day. Upper trof is then slow to
move off to the east, and could wrap a few showers back around the
west side into our area on Monday, but cooler temperatures
continue with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Overall pattern becomes more zonal mid to late week, moderating
temperatures more near normal, and leaving the frontal boundary
draped across the central US and as a focal point for periodic
rain chances. A stronger shortwave trof is forecast to move
through the flow late week into next weekend, and potentially
increasing rain chances late in the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Main impacts are stratus today and overnight, with a line of
storms moving across the terminals later this afternoon and
evening, generally in the 22-02z window. Cigs AOB 100ft AGL come
in overnight and remain to near the end of this TAF cycle. Winds
remain generally northwest, with gusty and variable in thunder.
Locally heavy rain as they pass brings low cigs and visby.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...67
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
309 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms in Nebraska this afternoon will move southward
across eastern and central Kansas through the late afternoon and
evening hours. Some of these storms may be severe, with the
greatest potential in east central Kansas. Large hail, damaging
winds, and locally heavy rain will be possible with the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
445 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ009-010-102215-
Washington-Marshall-
445 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Washington, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Blue Rapids, Waterville, Linn, Greenleaf and Barnes.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3991 9697 3969 9661 3957 9679 3957 9694
      3976 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 317DEG 32KT 3980 9699

Reese

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
453 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ011-012-102300-
Brown-Nemaha-
453 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND BROWN
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 452 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles north of Falls City to 4 miles
southwest of Oneida. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hiawatha, Sabetha, Seneca, Horton, Everest, Fairview, Robinson,
Morrill, Reserve, Powhattan, Oneida, Hamlin, Willis, Kickapoo
Reservation and Woodlawn.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3965 9534 3965 9552 3979 9612 4000 9586
      4000 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 298DEG 26KT 4013 9558 3981 9598

Reese

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERVILLE              39.70N 96.75W
07/10/2021  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ010-011-023-102300-
Pottawatomie-Nemaha-Marshall-
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE...
SOUTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Frankfort, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blaine, Onaga, Wheaton and Lillis.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3964 9600 3937 9620 3956 9659 3957 9658
      3957 9660 3958 9663 3971 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 292DEG 41KT 3961 9646

Reese

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLUE RAPIDS             39.68N 96.66W
07/10/2021  E60 MPH          MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ022-023-036-038-102315-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Pottawatomie-Riley-
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GEARY...SOUTHEASTERN
RILEY...NORTHERN WABAUNSEE AND SOUTHERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Louisville to 5 miles east
of Milford Lake. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wamego, St. Marys, Ogden, St. George, Belvue and
Louisville.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 306 and 329.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3925 9603 3913 9604 3897 9654 3914 9684
      3939 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 295DEG 37KT 3931 9626 3912 9682

Reese