Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

The main focus for this forecast is the threat for storms tonight
and tomorrow.

This afternoon, a warm front continues to push north across the
central Plains. Eastern Kansas is firmly within the warm sector
and despite temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s we
are likely still well capped. This is evident by the lack of
surface-based cumulus development and elevated cloud bases.
Indications are that we will remain capped all day today and even
through the night.

A better chance of storms arrives tonight as a mid-level wave
kicks off an MCS across the high Plains. The 12 UTC CAM suite is
in fairly good agreement on the evolution of the MCS tonight.
They have the MCS entering northern KS after midnight and exiting
our area by 5 AM. If the MCS can maintain a developed cold pool
and stay balanced enough through its life-cycle then it has the
potential to produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall. However,
most indications are that it will weaken as it enters our area and
encounters a robust mid-level cap.

The evolution of Saturday will be dependent on overnight/morning
convection and cloud cover. Scattered showers and isolated storms
may linger into the morning as a surface low and cold front
pushes into the area. There is uncertainty as to timing and
severity of any development later in the day as some guidance
suggests showers and cloud cover will limit afternoon instability
and some have the cold front almost out of our area by peak
heating. The most likely location for afternoon/evening storms at
this time is along and south of the I-35 corridor. Hail, damaging
wind and heavy rain will be the main threats with any storms that
develop Saturday afternoon/evening.

The upper trough associated with this system becomes a closed low
Saturday night over the MS River Valley. This will leave eastern
Kansas in a position to receive wrap-around precipitation in the
form of heavy showers as forecast soundings indicate a fully
saturated sounding and PWATs around 1.75 inches. A potentially
active pattern may continue into next week as additional waves
meander through the flow into the middle of the week. Otherwise,
expect cooler temperatures for the weekend behind the front with
highs in the 70s and 80s, followed by a warm-up back into the 90s
for the start of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Timing and impacts of thunderstorms are the main challenge. Line
of storms to the northwest making fast southeast progress and
should be impacting all terminals in the next few hours. Wind
gusts may approach 50 knots in the initial line. Upper trough in
the area keeps chances in the much of the forecast but still
believe the greatest chances should be in the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-110300-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are likely tonight into
early Saturday morning. Damaging wind with locally heavy rainfall
are the main hazards. The best potential for these severe storms
appears to be along and north of Interstate 70, where a severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect through 5 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon for areas
along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Large hail, damaging
wind, and heavy rainfall are the main threats with any storms
that
develop Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
159 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0156 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE SILVER LAKE       39.02N 95.81W
07/10/2021  E60 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW TECUMSEH           39.07N 95.62W
07/10/2021  M56 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

            KTOP BILLARD AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
216 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 WNW PAULINE           39.00N 95.80W
07/10/2021  E65 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
219 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 E PAULINE             38.96N 95.67W
07/10/2021  M60 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

            KFOE FORBES FIELD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ022-023-100815-
Pottawatomie-Riley-
244 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RILEY AND SOUTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

At 244 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Riley, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Riley, St. George, Leonardville, Randolph, Keats and
Tuttle Creek Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3931 9692 3946 9680 3925 9633 3914 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 302DEG 34KT 3935 9678

CP/BB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

KSZ023-038-039-055-100845-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Pottawatomie-Osage-
308 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SHAWNEE...WABAUNSEE...
NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 345
AM CDT...

At 307 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles southwest of St. Marys to 5 miles
northwest of Eskridge. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Topeka, Wamego, Rossville, Alma, Eskridge, St. Marys,
Dover, Silver Lake, Maple Hill, McFarland, Harveyville, Paxico,
Belvue, Louisville, Willard, Keene and Volland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 323 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 155 and 164.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3871 9592 3871 9595 3874 9595 3874 9609
      3879 9639 3883 9639 3883 9645 3904 9641
      3904 9639 3917 9639 3936 9636 3910 9573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 303DEG 35KT 3915 9613 3889 9620

CP/BB