Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 518

October 10, 20217 counties in Oklahoma; 51 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 10, 2021, 6:13 PM CDT for 7 counties in Oklahoma; 51 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 6:13 PM CDT (23:13 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 58 counties

Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Coal County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Anderson County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rains County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

30 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 6:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDYoung38 min
Oct 10, 6:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCallahan, Shackelford13 min
Oct 10, 7:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDPalo Pinto, Stephens57 min
Oct 10, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDEastland, Erath, Palo Pinto, Stephens46 min
Oct 10, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDJack, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Young37 min
Oct 10, 7:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDComanche, Eastland, Erath48 min
Oct 10, 7:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTBrown, Coleman48 min
Oct 10, 7:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCooke, Hood, Jack, Montague, Palo Pinto, Parker and 1 more66 min
Oct 10, 8:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFWDJack, Parker, Wise52 min
Oct 10, 8:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFWDPalo Pinto, Parker47 min
Oct 10, 8:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDBosque, Comanche, Erath, Hamilton, Hood, Mills and 1 more67 min
Oct 10, 8:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin, Cooke, Dallas, Denton, Grayson, Parker and 2 more55 min
Oct 10, 8:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBryan, Carter, Johnston, Love, Marshall52 min
Oct 10, 8:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCarter, Coal, Garvin, Johnston, Murray, Pontotoc and 1 more46 min
Oct 10, 9:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatFWDCollin, Cooke, Denton, Grayson39 min
Oct 10, 9:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDBosque, Ellis, Hill, Johnson, Somervell59 min
Oct 10, 9:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNHughes, Lincoln, Payne, Pontotoc, Pottawatomie, Seminole43 min
Oct 10, 9:27 PM CDTTornado WarningFWDJohnson33 min
Oct 10, 9:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDCollin, Dallas, Denton, Fannin, Grayson, Hunt and 3 more65 min
Oct 10, 9:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNAtoka, Bryan, Coal, Johnston, Marshall47 min
Oct 10, 9:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCoal, Hughes, Pontotoc, Seminole45 min
Oct 10, 10:03 PM CDTTornado WarningFWDEllis, Hill, Johnson27 min
Oct 10, 10:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDEllis, Freestone, Henderson, Hill, Kaufman, Limestone and 2 more65 min
Oct 10, 10:20 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNHughes25 min
Oct 10, 10:24 PM CDTTornado WarningFWDEllis36 min
Oct 10, 10:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNAtoka, Bryan, Coal45 min
Oct 10, 10:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDelta, Fannin, Hopkins, Hunt, Kaufman, Lamar and 3 more56 min
Oct 10, 11:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDAnderson, Freestone, Henderson, Kaufman, Limestone, Navarro and 1 more56 min
Oct 10, 11:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDDelta, Hopkins, Hunt, Lamar, Rains, Van Zandt47 min
Oct 11, 1:11 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDLeon, Robertson49 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-10-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-10-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 215 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
688 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
215 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

215 
WWUS20 KWNS 102311
SEL8  
SPC WW 102311
OKZ000-TXZ000-110700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Oklahoma
  North central and central Texas

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 610 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify along a progressive
Pacific cold front across northwest Texas and become severe as they
continue through north central and central TX this evening. All
severe hazards are possible with this activity.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Brownwood TX to 50
miles southeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 516...WW 517...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Dial

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 2:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Garfield, Grady and 13 more116 min
Oct 10, 3:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 33 more7 hr
Oct 10, 4:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCComanche, Cotton, Grady, McClain, Stephens, Tillman95 min
Oct 10, 6:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Grady, Lincoln and 5 more118 min
Oct 10, 3:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Coleman, Eastland, Jack and 6 more119 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2021Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.