Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1822

October 10, 20216 counties in Oklahoma; Wichita County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 10, 2021, 4:25 PM CDT for 6 counties in Oklahoma; Wichita County, Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 4:25 PM CDT (21:25 UTC)
Expired
Oct 10, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 517

Counties Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Grady County, OK, McClain County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Wichita County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2021-10-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2021-10-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 273 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-777 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1314 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
273 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

907 
ACUS11 KWNS 102125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102125 
OKZ000-TXZ000-102300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma into western North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

Valid 102125Z - 102300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

SUMMARY...Initiation of discrete storms is becoming more likely in
the vicinity of Frederick, OK within the next 1-1.5 hours. The
threat for tornadoes is increasing in southwest Oklahoma into parts
of central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus continues to develop south of
Frederick, OK. The strongest pressure falls in the last few hours
have occurred in this vicinity. Confidence is increasing in storm
initiation within the next 1-1.5 hours. Given the backed surface
winds and over 50 kts of effective shear, initial storm mode will
likely be supercellular. KFDR VWP has begun to show an increase in
low-level SRH recently as well. Storms that form in this region
would pose the greatest tornado risk over the next few hours.

..Wendt.. 10/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   33819849 33849879 33949902 34059910 34529892 34989844
            35259790 35289751 35069737 34389761 33819849

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 2:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Garfield, Grady and 13 more116 min
Oct 10, 3:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 33 more7 hr
Oct 10, 6:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Coal, Hughes, Johnston, Marshall and 1 more8 hr
Oct 10, 6:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Grady, Lincoln and 5 more118 min
Oct 10, 3:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Coleman, Eastland, Jack and 6 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.