Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1823

October 10, 202111 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 10, 2021, 6:32 PM CDT for 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2021, 6:32 PM CDT (23:32 UTC)
Expired
Oct 10, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 516

Counties Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Grady County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, McClain County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2021-10-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2021-10-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 273 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-777 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1314 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
273 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
178 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

916 
ACUS11 KWNS 102333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102332 
OKZ000-110130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Areas affected...Southwestern-Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 516...

Valid 102332Z - 110130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will race northeast across
southwestern into central Oklahoma this evening, likely approaching
the southwestern Oklahoma City metro by 01z. Very strong winds and
hail are expected, along with tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
spreading across western OK/northwestern TX early this evening. Deep
convection has finally responded to this forcing and is increasing
along the surging cold front, and south along the dry line.
Strongest supercell has developed immediately ahead of the surface
low over Kiowa County and this storm should mature into a larger
cluster as it propagates downstream into Caddo/northern Comanche
Counties. Very strong winds could ultimately evolve with this
complex if upscale growth continues; although in the short term,
very large hail is likely, along with the threat for tornadoes.
Leading edge of severe should surge into the western/southwestern
portions of the Oklahoma City metro by 01z.

..Darrow.. 10/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   35059884 36139715 35149652 34549866 35059884

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 2:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Garfield, Grady and 13 more116 min
Oct 10, 3:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 33 more7 hr
Oct 10, 4:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCComanche, Cotton, Grady, McClain, Stephens, Tillman95 min
Oct 10, 6:13 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Coal, Hughes, Johnston, Marshall and 1 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.