Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439

August 13, 20219 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 13, 2021, 6:55 PM MST for 9 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2021, 6:55 PM MST (01:55 UTC)
Expired
Aug 14, 2021, 3:00 AM MST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Cochise County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, La Paz County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ, Yuma County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
5%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

32 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 7:00 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai15 min
Aug 13, 7:39 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila26 min
Aug 13, 8:15 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZGila, Yavapai2 hr
Aug 13, 8:38 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila, Yavapai52 min
Aug 13, 9:03 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai42 min
Aug 13, 9:03 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa42 min
Aug 13, 9:19 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila, Maricopa41 min
Aug 13, 9:38 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa52 min
Aug 13, 9:43 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZYavapai47 min
Aug 13, 9:49 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRGila, Maricopa4 hr
Aug 13, 9:51 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai3 hr
Aug 13, 9:54 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa51 min
Aug 13, 9:56 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRMaricopa4 hr
Aug 13, 9:58 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatPSRGila, Maricopa, Pinal47 min
Aug 13, 10:07 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatFGZYavapai53 min
Aug 13, 10:16 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa, Pinal44 min
Aug 13, 10:19 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningPSRMaricopa5 hr
Aug 13, 10:24 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRLa Paz, Maricopa36 min
Aug 13, 10:31 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRGila, Maricopa4 hr
Aug 13, 10:39 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRGila4 hr
Aug 13, 10:44 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatPSRGila, Maricopa, Pinal46 min
Aug 13, 10:58 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRMaricopa5 hr
Aug 13, 11:01 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatPSRLa Paz, Maricopa, Yuma44 min
Aug 13, 11:14 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningPSRMaricopa, Pinal5 hr
Aug 13, 11:31 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRMaricopa, Pinal5 hr
Aug 13, 11:31 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila44 min
Aug 13, 11:43 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRLa Paz, Maricopa, Yuma47 min
Aug 13, 11:51 PM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRLa Paz4 hr
Aug 14, 12:33 AM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRMaricopa, Pinal4 hr
Aug 14, 12:53 AM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRMaricopa4 hr
Aug 14, 1:03 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa, Yuma57 min
Aug 14, 1:04 AM MSTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatPSRLa Paz, Maricopa, Yuma4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 2021-08-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 936 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tuscon, AZ at 00:00Z on 2021-08-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -16 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
936 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1778 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

613 
WWUS20 KWNS 140152
SEL9  
SPC WW 140152
AZZ000-141000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
755 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  central and southern Arizona

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 755 PM
  until 400 AM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the
next several hours across parts of central and southern Arizona,
where locally strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with
stronger storms/convective bands.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles east southeast of
Tucson AZ to 65 miles west northwest of Phoenix AZ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
36040.

...Goss

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 9:24 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGila, La Paz, Maricopa, Pinal, Yuma66 min
Aug 14, 12:51 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCYuma84 min
Aug 14, 4:34 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa and 4 more116 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arizona, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.