Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 13, 2021, 6:55 PM MST for 9 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2021, 6:55 PM MST (01:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 14, 2021, 3:00 AM MST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
Counties Cochise County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, La Paz County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Pima County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ, Yuma County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 5%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
32 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 7:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 15 min |
| Aug 13, 7:39 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 26 min |
| Aug 13, 8:15 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 2 hr |
| Aug 13, 8:38 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 52 min |
| Aug 13, 9:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 42 min |
| Aug 13, 9:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 42 min |
| Aug 13, 9:19 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa | 41 min |
| Aug 13, 9:38 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 52 min |
| Aug 13, 9:43 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 47 min |
| Aug 13, 9:49 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 9:51 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 3 hr |
| Aug 13, 9:54 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 51 min |
| Aug 13, 9:56 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 9:58 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa, Pinal | 47 min |
| Aug 13, 10:07 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 53 min |
| Aug 13, 10:16 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa, Pinal | 44 min |
| Aug 13, 10:19 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 5 hr |
| Aug 13, 10:24 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | La Paz, Maricopa | 36 min |
| Aug 13, 10:31 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 10:39 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Gila | 4 hr |
| Aug 13, 10:44 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila, Maricopa, Pinal | 46 min |
| Aug 13, 10:58 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 5 hr |
| Aug 13, 11:01 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | La Paz, Maricopa, Yuma | 44 min |
| Aug 13, 11:14 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa, Pinal | 5 hr |
| Aug 13, 11:31 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa, Pinal | 5 hr |
| Aug 13, 11:31 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila | 44 min |
| Aug 13, 11:43 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | La Paz, Maricopa, Yuma | 47 min |
| Aug 13, 11:51 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | La Paz | 4 hr |
| Aug 14, 12:33 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa, Pinal | 4 hr |
| Aug 14, 12:53 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | Maricopa | 4 hr |
| Aug 14, 1:03 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Maricopa, Yuma | 57 min |
| Aug 14, 1:04 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | La Paz, Maricopa, Yuma | 4 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 85 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 936 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1778 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -16 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 8 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
613 WWUS20 KWNS 140152 SEL9 SPC WW 140152 AZZ000-141000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 439 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 755 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of central and southern Arizona * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 755 PM until 400 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next several hours across parts of central and southern Arizona, where locally strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with stronger storms/convective bands. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles east southeast of Tucson AZ to 65 miles west northwest of Phoenix AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 437... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 36040. ...Goss
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 9:24 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Gila, La Paz, Maricopa, Pinal, Yuma | 66 min |
| Aug 14, 12:51 AM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Yuma | 84 min |
| Aug 14, 4:34 PM MST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa and 4 more | 116 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arizona, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.