Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

039 
WWUS55 KFGZ 140351
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
851 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

AZC007-025-140430-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-210814T0430Z/
Gila-Yavapai-
851 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM MST
FOR GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...

At 850 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Spring Valley,
or 22 miles southeast of Prescott Valley, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. Half dollar size hail in the area of 
         Cordes Junction.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Camp Verde, Cordes Junction, Bumble Bee, Cordes Lakes, Black Canyon
City, Rock Springs, Cordes, Spring Valley, Childs Power Plant and
Clear Creek Campgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 11169 3407 11171 3405 11214 3405 11217
      3418 11220 3434 11220 3450 11211 3462 11201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 091DEG 29KT 3433 11215 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

McCollum

154 
WWUS55 KFGZ 140430
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
930 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

AZC007-025-140438-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-210814T0430Z/
Gila-Yavapai-
930 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 930 PM MST...
                
The storm over eastern Yavapai County, primarily along and east of 
portions of Interstate-17, which prompted the warning has weakened 
below severe limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life 
or property. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM MST for
west central and east central Arizona.

LAT...LON 3454 11169 3407 11171 3405 11214 3405 11217
      3418 11220 3434 11220 3450 11211 3462 11201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 091DEG 29KT 3433 11251 

$$

McCollum

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
130 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue for much of the next week, especially in the high
terrain and south of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures warm slightly
over the weekend, before cooling off again towards the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop this
afternoon over the high terrain along the Mogollon Rim and in the
northeast. Coverages is expected to continue to increase as the
afternoon progresses and into the evening hours. Hi-res guidance
continues to show activity become more organized, with outflow
from storms now supporting MCS develop once they move into the
more unstable air mass over central Arizona. Heavy rainfall will
be the primary threat, with flash flooding possible over Yavapai
and Gila counties through tonight. A few strong to severe storms
will also be possible, with strong gusty winds and hail. Much of
the activity is expected to diminish by midnight, with only a few
lingering showers possible through the rest of the overnight.

Saturday, heights begin to rise as a ridge over the the
intermountain west begins to build through the weekend.
Temperatures warm slightly over the weekend as a result, as well
as reduced precipitation coverage and potential. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will remain a threat, but will mainly be
limited to the high terrain along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall will continue to
remain a threat with any storm that develops.

Heights begin to fall Monday as the high begins to slowly meander
westward becoming centered over California/Nevada and degrading.
Towards the middle of next week, a longwave trough begins to dig
into the West Coast and moving eastward across the intermountain
west through the week. Uncertainty still exists in the timing and
how far south the trough will reach, so confidence in what
implications that will have for next is still low at this point.
Nevertheless, EPS and GEFS ensemble members do signal that
moisture will remain in place over much of northern Arizona start
during the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for
the duration of the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms continue
mainly south and west of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line through around
06Z. A few lingering showers will be possible thereafter. Storms
develop again after 19Z Sat, mainly in the high terrain. Brief
MVFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds and hail will
be possible in and around thunderstorms. Winds will otherwise
remain light through the period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected for the weekend. Greatest coverage will be over the high
terrain and areas south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized flash
flooding from heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard. Warming
temperatures along with light winds are otherwise expected.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue into next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool
slightly.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR AZZ008-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff