Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

692 
WWUS55 KFGZ 142259
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
359 PM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

AZC007-017-142330-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-210814T2330Z/
Gila-Navajo-
359 PM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MST
FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES...

At 359 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located 18 miles west of
Carrizo, or 27 miles southeast of Forest Lakes, moving west at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila
and Navajo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 11073 3410 11074 3402 11048 3391 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 090DEG 17KT 3397 11061 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RR

207 
WWUS55 KFGZ 142318
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 PM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

AZC007-017-142327-
/O.CAN.KFGZ.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-210814T2330Z/
Gila-Navajo-
418 PM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILA AND NAVAJO COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm near Cibecue which prompted the warning has 
weakened. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3386 11073 3410 11074 3402 11048 3391 11050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 090DEG 17KT 3397 11071 

$$

McCollum

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
139 PM MST Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms will continue each day through
Monday, with the best coverage along and south of the Mogollon
Rim where a few strong storms are possible. Expect more widespread
showers and storms and cooler temperatures by the middle of next
week as a trough moves through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Convection has been slow to get going this afternoon
as last night's widespread rainfall has kept surface temperatures
down. As of 1 PM, most of the shower activity is in the White Mtns
region closer to an inverted trough moving toward the region from
southern New Mexico. For the rest of the afternoon and evening,
the most active areas are likely to be Gila County and the White
Mountains, and possibly western Yavapai, with mainly isolated to
scattered storms elsewhere. With high atmospheric moisture values,
locally heavy rainfall is possible in a few spots. The Storm
Prediction Center also has areas south of a Grand Canyon to Show
Low line in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms into early
evening, mainly for damaging winds.

For Sunday - enhanced easterly mid-level steering flow continues
as we are between high pressure over CA/NV and the inverted trough
over far southern AZ and northern Mexico. Another round of
isolated to scattered storms is forecast, with storms moving
toward the west-southwest. Models suggest another disturbance
rotating into northeast AZ during the evening, and this could
enhance storm coverage over eastern portions of the state. Similar
conditions are expected for Monday, though the steering flow will
turn a bit more from the north.

Tuesday and Wednesday - significant pattern change as the high
pressure center is forecast to move well out into the Pacific as a
trough moves into the NW United States. Low level moisture should
move northward to cover even far northern AZ. High storm chances
are forecast for both days, with the threat of localized flash
flooding and even a few strong/severe storms increasing.

Thursday into next weekend - a gradual downturn in storm activity
is possible as some drier air works into the region following the
trough passage. At least isolated storms remain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for the
duration of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
through around 03Z, with the highest coverage south of a line from
KFLG-KSJN. Localized MVFR and wind gusts to 40kt with stronger
cells. Outside of storms, generally light winds are expected.
Similar conditions again on Sunday with storm development beginning
over higher terrain after 19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected through Monday. Greatest coverage will be over the high
terrain and areas south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized flash
flooding from heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard. Warmer
temperatures along with light winds are otherwise expected.

Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue into next week with the highest coverage on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff