Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
130 PM MST Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue for much of the next week, especially in the high
terrain and south of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures warm slightly
over the weekend, before cooling off again towards the middle of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop this
afternoon over the high terrain along the Mogollon Rim and in the
northeast. Coverages is expected to continue to increase as the
afternoon progresses and into the evening hours. Hi-res guidance
continues to show activity become more organized, with outflow
from storms now supporting MCS develop once they move into the
more unstable air mass over central Arizona. Heavy rainfall will
be the primary threat, with flash flooding possible over Yavapai
and Gila counties through tonight. A few strong to severe storms
will also be possible, with strong gusty winds and hail. Much of
the activity is expected to diminish by midnight, with only a few
lingering showers possible through the rest of the overnight.

Saturday, heights begin to rise as a ridge over the the
intermountain west begins to build through the weekend.
Temperatures warm slightly over the weekend as a result, as well
as reduced precipitation coverage and potential. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will remain a threat, but will mainly be
limited to the high terrain along and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall will continue to
remain a threat with any storm that develops.

Heights begin to fall Monday as the high begins to slowly meander
westward becoming centered over California/Nevada and degrading.
Towards the middle of next week, a longwave trough begins to dig
into the West Coast and moving eastward across the intermountain
west through the week. Uncertainty still exists in the timing and
how far south the trough will reach, so confidence in what
implications that will have for next is still low at this point.
Nevertheless, EPS and GEFS ensemble members do signal that
moisture will remain in place over much of northern Arizona start
during the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for
the duration of the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms continue
mainly south and west of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line through around
06Z. A few lingering showers will be possible thereafter. Storms
develop again after 19Z Sat, mainly in the high terrain. Brief
MVFR conditions along with gusty and erratic winds and hail will
be possible in and around thunderstorms. Winds will otherwise
remain light through the period. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Continued afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected for the weekend. Greatest coverage will be over the high
terrain and areas south of the Mogollon Rim. Localized flash
flooding from heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard. Warming
temperatures along with light winds are otherwise expected.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue into next week. Temperatures are also expected to cool
slightly.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight FOR AZZ008-018-037-038.

&&

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff