Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1521

August 13, 20215 counties in Arizona

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 13, 2021, 9:24 PM MST for 5 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 13, 2021, 9:24 PM MST (04:24 UTC)
Expired
Aug 13, 2021, 10:30 PM MST
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 439

Counties Gila County, AZ, La Paz County, AZ, Maricopa County, AZ, Pinal County, AZ, Yuma County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 24 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2021-08-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1603 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2021-08-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1603 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2033 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

243 
ACUS11 KWNS 140425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140424 
AZZ000-140530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021

Areas affected...southern AZ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439...

Valid 140424Z - 140530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 439
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds continues across the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch area.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows an impressive bowing
segment over Yavapai County, AZ, with a pronounced rear-inflow jet
and likely producing a concentrated swath of damaging winds. 
Another cluster of storms was developing over eastern Gila County,
with more isolated strong/severe storms east/northeast of Phoenix. 
In the presence of MLCAPE averaging 1000-1500 J/kg and 25 kts of
northeasterly mid-level flow, storms should continue to cluster and
move southwest across lower elevations through late evening and
early overnight hours with a risk for concentrated corridors of
damaging winds.  This scenario is supported by the latest hi-res
guidance including the HRRR and 00z HREF.

..Bunting.. 08/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32781426 33871403 34601268 34571177 34051073 33741028
            32621038 32251077 32261299 32781426

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 13, 6:55 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCochise, Gila, La Paz, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal and 3 more8 hr
Aug 14, 12:51 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCYuma84 min
Aug 14, 4:34 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa and 4 more116 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.