Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 28, 2021, 7:17 PM CDT for 16 counties in Minnesota; 67 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 28, 2021, 7:17 PM CDT (00:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 29, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Particularly dangerous situation
- Yes
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 80 kt
All 83 counties
Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Washington County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Barron County, WI, Brown County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Door County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Forest County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Racine County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 95%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 90%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 60%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 40%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
53 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 7:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Burnett, Washburn | 27 min |
| Jul 28, 7:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon | 39 min |
| Jul 28, 7:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Oneida | 39 min |
| Jul 28, 7:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Rusk | 23 min |
| Jul 28, 7:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Barron, Polk, Rusk | 32 min |
| Jul 28, 7:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Pine | 39 min |
| Jul 28, 7:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Langlade, Lincoln | 53 min |
| Jul 28, 7:58 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DLH | Pine | 32 min |
| Jul 28, 7:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Burnett, Washburn | 16 min |
| Jul 28, 8:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Barron, Chippewa, Rusk | 44 min |
| Jul 28, 8:09 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MPX | Polk | 35 min |
| Jul 28, 8:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Taylor | 56 min |
| Jul 28, 8:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Aitkin, Cass, Itasca | 34 min |
| Jul 28, 8:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, Shawano | 53 min |
| Jul 28, 8:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Barron, Chippewa, Rusk | 59 min |
| Jul 28, 8:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Chisago | 50 min |
| Jul 28, 8:58 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Marathon | 32 min |
| Jul 28, 9:08 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MPX | Chippewa | 37 min |
| Jul 28, 9:21 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Marathon, Portage | 24 min |
| Jul 28, 9:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Marathon, Portage, Shawano, Waupaca | 53 min |
| Jul 28, 9:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Dunn, Saint Croix | 65 min |
| Jul 28, 9:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Chippewa, Eau Claire | 60 min |
| Jul 28, 9:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Clark | 43 min |
| Jul 28, 9:36 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MPX | Saint Croix | 24 min |
| Jul 28, 9:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Washington | 38 min |
| Jul 28, 9:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Clark, Jackson | 57 min |
| Jul 28, 9:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Portage, Waupaca | 36 min |
| Jul 28, 9:55 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MPX | Saint Croix | 35 min |
| Jul 28, 10:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Dunn, Pepin, Pierce, Saint Croix | 51 min |
| Jul 28, 10:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Outagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago | 65 min |
| Jul 28, 10:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Wood | 43 min |
| Jul 28, 10:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin | 42 min |
| Jul 28, 10:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Washington | 24 min |
| Jul 28, 10:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Pepin | 39 min |
| Jul 28, 10:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Buffalo, Trempealeau | 46 min |
| Jul 28, 10:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MPX | Goodhue | 48 min |
| Jul 28, 11:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRB | Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago | 45 min |
| Jul 28, 11:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette | 72 min |
| Jul 28, 11:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ARX | Jackson, Monroe, Trempealeau | 26 min |
| Jul 28, 11:38 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | GRB | Winnebago | 16 min |
| Jul 28, 11:41 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Fond du Lac | 20 min |
| Jul 28, 11:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dodge, Washington | 65 min |
| Jul 29, 12:22 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Columbia, Dane, Sauk | 53 min |
| Jul 29, 12:26 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Columbia, Dodge | 31 min |
| Jul 29, 12:43 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Jefferson | 32 min |
| Jul 29, 12:45 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dane, Jefferson | 45 min |
| Jul 29, 12:51 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dane, Iowa, Sauk | 39 min |
| Jul 29, 12:57 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dodge, Washington | 48 min |
| Jul 29, 1:07 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Green, Lafayette | 38 min |
| Jul 29, 1:08 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Jefferson, Waukesha | 37 min |
| Jul 29, 1:17 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dane, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Rock and 2 more | 67 min |
| Jul 29, 1:31 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha | 44 min |
| Jul 29, 1:36 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Rock | 24 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
- Mesoscale Discussion 1378 Severe potential...tornado watch likely
- Mesoscale Discussion 1379 Severe thunderstorm watch 399
- Mesoscale Discussion 1380 Severe thunderstorm watch 399
- Mesoscale Discussion 1381 Severe thunderstorm watch 399
- Mesoscale Discussion 1382 Severe thunderstorm watch 399
- Mesoscale Discussion 1384 Severe thunderstorm watch 399...400
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 593 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -264 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1088 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 62 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
836
WWUS20 KWNS 290015
SEL9
SPC WW 290015
MNZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-290700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
715 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
parts of east-central Minnesota
much of Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 715 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
gusts to 90 mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage over the next 1 to 2 hours, evolving into a large,
well-organized cluster/possible derecho while moving rapidly
southeastward. Along with potential for a few tornadoes, widespread
damaging winds are expected -- including a few significant gusts
possibly reaching 90 MPH locally.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles either side of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Duluth MN to 40 miles northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30050.
...GossSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 10:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Goodhue, Olmsted, Wabasha, Washington, Winona | 58 min |
| Jul 28, 11:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Houston, Wabasha, Winona | 96 min |
| Jul 28, 8:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chippewa, Clark, Eau Claire, Jackson, Monroe, Trempealeau | 61 min |
| Jul 28, 9:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Eau Claire, Jackson, Monroe | 54 min |
| Jul 29, 1:34 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha | 86 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.