Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399

July 28, 202116 counties in Minnesota; 67 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 28, 2021, 7:17 PM CDT for 16 counties in Minnesota; 67 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 28, 2021, 7:17 PM CDT (00:17 UTC)
Expired
Jul 29, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Particularly dangerous situation
Yes
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
80 kt
All 83 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Houston County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Pine County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Washington County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Barron County, WI, Brown County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Door County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Florence County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Forest County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Racine County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washburn County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
95%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
90%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

53 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 28, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHBurnett, Washburn27 min
Jul 28, 7:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBLanglade, Lincoln, Marathon39 min
Jul 28, 7:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBOneida39 min
Jul 28, 7:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXRusk23 min
Jul 28, 7:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBarron, Polk, Rusk32 min
Jul 28, 7:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHPine39 min
Jul 28, 7:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBLanglade, Lincoln53 min
Jul 28, 7:58 PM CDTTornado WarningDLHPine32 min
Jul 28, 7:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHBurnett, Washburn16 min
Jul 28, 8:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBarron, Chippewa, Rusk44 min
Jul 28, 8:09 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXPolk35 min
Jul 28, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXTaylor56 min
Jul 28, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca34 min
Jul 28, 8:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBLanglade, Lincoln, Marathon, Shawano53 min
Jul 28, 8:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXBarron, Chippewa, Rusk59 min
Jul 28, 8:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChisago50 min
Jul 28, 8:58 PM CDTTornado WarningGRBMarathon32 min
Jul 28, 9:08 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXChippewa37 min
Jul 28, 9:21 PM CDTTornado WarningGRBMarathon, Portage24 min
Jul 28, 9:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBMarathon, Portage, Shawano, Waupaca53 min
Jul 28, 9:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDunn, Saint Croix65 min
Jul 28, 9:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXChippewa, Eau Claire60 min
Jul 28, 9:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXClark43 min
Jul 28, 9:36 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXSaint Croix24 min
Jul 28, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXWashington38 min
Jul 28, 9:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXClark, Jackson57 min
Jul 28, 9:54 PM CDTTornado WarningGRBPortage, Waupaca36 min
Jul 28, 9:55 PM CDTTornado WarningMPXSaint Croix35 min
Jul 28, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDunn, Pepin, Pierce, Saint Croix51 min
Jul 28, 10:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBOutagamie, Portage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago65 min
Jul 28, 10:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBWood43 min
Jul 28, 10:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDunn, Eau Claire, Pepin42 min
Jul 28, 10:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXWashington24 min
Jul 28, 10:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXPepin39 min
Jul 28, 10:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXBuffalo, Trempealeau46 min
Jul 28, 10:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXGoodhue48 min
Jul 28, 11:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGRBPortage, Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago45 min
Jul 28, 11:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXFond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette72 min
Jul 28, 11:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningARXJackson, Monroe, Trempealeau26 min
Jul 28, 11:38 PM CDTTornado WarningGRBWinnebago16 min
Jul 28, 11:41 PM CDTTornado WarningMKXFond du Lac20 min
Jul 28, 11:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Washington65 min
Jul 29, 12:22 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXColumbia, Dane, Sauk53 min
Jul 29, 12:26 AM CDTTornado WarningMKXColumbia, Dodge31 min
Jul 29, 12:43 AM CDTTornado WarningMKXColumbia, Dane, Dodge, Jefferson32 min
Jul 29, 12:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Jefferson45 min
Jul 29, 12:51 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Iowa, Sauk39 min
Jul 29, 12:57 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Washington48 min
Jul 29, 1:07 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXGreen, Lafayette38 min
Jul 29, 1:08 AM CDTTornado WarningMKXJefferson, Waukesha37 min
Jul 29, 1:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Jefferson, Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Rock and 2 more67 min
Jul 29, 1:31 AM CDTTornado WarningMKXMilwaukee, Racine, Walworth, Waukesha44 min
Jul 29, 1:36 AM CDTTornado WarningMKXRock24 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2021-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 593 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2021-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
593 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-264 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1088 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

836 
WWUS20 KWNS 290015
SEL9  
SPC WW 290015
MNZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-290700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
715 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  parts of east-central Minnesota
  much of Wisconsin
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 715 PM
  until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
    gusts to 90 mph likely
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage over the next 1 to 2 hours, evolving into a large,
well-organized cluster/possible derecho while moving rapidly
southeastward.  Along with potential for a few tornadoes, widespread
damaging winds are expected -- including a few significant gusts
possibly reaching 90 MPH locally.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles either side of a line from 65 miles southwest of
Duluth MN to 40 miles northeast of Milwaukee WI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30050.

...Goss

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 28, 10:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGoodhue, Olmsted, Wabasha, Washington, Winona58 min
Jul 28, 11:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHouston, Wabasha, Winona96 min
Jul 28, 8:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChippewa, Clark, Eau Claire, Jackson, Monroe, Trempealeau61 min
Jul 28, 9:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEau Claire, Jackson, Monroe54 min
Jul 29, 1:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha86 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wisconsin, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.