Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281

June 18, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 18, 2021, 9:09 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2021, 9:09 PM EDT (01:09 UTC)
Expired
Jun 19, 2021, 3:00 AM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 67 counties

Clark County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Scott County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Washington County, IN, Bath County, KY, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Knott County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Pike County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Cabell County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Mason County, WV, Putnam County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 9:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNAdams, Brown, Clinton, Highland51 min
Jun 18, 9:11 PM EDTTornado WarningILNDearborn, Ohio34 min
Jun 18, 9:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNCampbell45 min
Jun 18, 9:16 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNClinton, Greene, Warren3 hr
Jun 18, 9:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNCampbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Owen, Pendleton52 min
Jun 18, 9:26 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNButler, Montgomery, Warren3 hr
Jun 18, 9:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNOhio, Switzerland15 min
Jun 18, 9:32 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNClinton, Highland, Pike3 hr
Jun 18, 9:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNBracken, Campbell, Lewis, Mason, Pendleton, Robertson56 min
Jun 18, 9:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHarrison34 min
Jun 18, 10:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLFleming, Rowan51 min
Jun 18, 10:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKJefferson, Scott31 min
Jun 18, 10:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNLewis, Mason, Robertson41 min
Jun 18, 10:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLBath, Elliott, Fleming, Menifee, Morgan, Rowan49 min
Jun 18, 11:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNButler, Clermont, Hamilton, Warren42 min
Jun 18, 11:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJKLElliott, Johnson, Magoffin, Morgan50 min
Jun 18, 11:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKJefferson33 min
Jun 18, 11:39 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKJefferson6 hr
Jun 18, 11:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILNBrown, Clermont, Clinton, Highland, Warren19 min
Jun 19, 12:22 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKTrimble6 hr
Jun 19, 12:23 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNCarroll, Owen4 hr
Jun 19, 1:05 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKHenry6 hr
Jun 19, 1:28 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningILNSwitzerland4 hr
Jun 19, 1:51 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningLMKHenry5 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2257 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 214 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2257 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1236 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.9
Supercell composite
17.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

226 
WWUS20 KWNS 190107
SEL1  
SPC WW 190107
INZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-190700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
910 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Indiana
  Northern Kentucky
  Southern Ohio
  Western West Virginia

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 910 PM
  until 300 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to move
south-southeastward across the region this evening, and possibly
into the overnight, with damaging winds and some severe hail as the
primary hazards.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Louisville KY to 30 miles southeast of Athens OH. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 279...WW 280...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
30035.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 8:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clark, Daviess, Dearborn, Decatur and 21 more67 min
Jun 19, 1:02 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Clinton, Daviess and 25 more88 min
Jun 19, 3:10 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clay, Fountain, Greene, Hendricks and 15 more2 hr
Jun 18, 11:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Boyd, Carter, Elliott, Fleming, Lawrence and 3 more96 min
Jun 19, 7:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Jefferson, Mahoning, Portage and 3 more83 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kentucky, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Indiana, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.