Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1001

June 18, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2021, 8:53 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2021, 8:53 PM EDT (00:53 UTC)
Expired
Jun 18, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 279...280
All 70 counties

Bartholomew County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clark County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Greene County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Union County, IN, Washington County, IN, Boone County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH, Cabell County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 113 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2257 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 214 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2257 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1236 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.9
Supercell composite
17.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

032 
ACUS11 KWNS 190053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190053 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...southern portions of IN/OH...northern KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...280...

Valid 190053Z - 190200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279, 280 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues with Tornado Watch 279
and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280.  A downstream watch may be needed
south/southeast of existing watches prior to 02z.

DISCUSSION...Several supercell thunderstorms continue within WW
279/280 at 0030z, with strengthening storms also noted near the
IL/IN border near Sullivan, IN.  Very large hail, isolated damaging
winds, and at least one tornado have been reported with these
intense storms.  Gradual upscale growth is anticipated over the next
few hours as warm advection strengthens and promotes increasing
storm coverage.  Linear bowing segments are likely to evolve with
time and continue moving east/southeast across locally extended
portions of WW 279/280 and potentially requiring issuance of one or
more downstream watches prior to 02z.  Increasing MLCIN with
southward extent casts some uncertainty on the extent of the severe
risk, however damaging winds, possibly significant, will become an
increasingly prominent risk over the next few hours.  Severe hail
will remain possible with persistent supercell structures. Some
tornado risk will also continue with both supercell and bowing
segments given background environment low-level SRH of 200-250
m2/s2. 

Observational trends will continue to be monitored for the potential
for additional watch issuance.

..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   39298662 39748545 39918464 39848405 39608347 39328292
            39058237 38528203 38168236 38248405 38238478 38218574
            38388648 38528728 38718756 39128771 39298662

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 9:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Dearborn, Franklin, Jefferson, Ohio, Ripley and 3 more6 hr
Jun 19, 1:02 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Clinton, Daviess and 25 more88 min
Jun 19, 3:10 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Brown, Clay, Fountain, Greene, Hendricks and 15 more2 hr
Jun 18, 11:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBath, Boyd, Carter, Elliott, Fleming, Lawrence and 3 more96 min
Jun 19, 7:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Columbiana, Geauga, Jefferson, Mahoning, Portage and 3 more83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.