Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1004

June 18, 20219 counties in Kentucky; Wayne County, West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 18, 2021, 11:09 PM EDT for 9 counties in Kentucky; Wayne County, West Virginia. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 18, 2021, 11:09 PM EDT (03:09 UTC)
Expired
Jun 19, 2021, 12:45 AM EDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 281

Counties Bath County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, WV

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2257 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2021-06-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 214 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2257 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1236 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.9
Supercell composite
17.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

973 
ACUS11 KWNS 190309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190309 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Areas affected...northeast KY...far western WV

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...

Valid 190309Z - 190445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
continues.

SUMMARY...A bowing segment will move south and may require a local
watch extension for damaging wind potential beyond the current valid
area of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced bowing segment with a history of severe
winds continues to move south at 45-50 mph across extreme northeast
KY. Although MUCAPE decreases with southward extent, current
indications are that the linear thunderstorm complex will likely
continue to pose a severe risk beyond the current area covered by WW
281, and a local areal extension may be needed.

..Bunting.. 06/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38078390 38268398 38488360 38468299 38418260 38388243
            38298235 38078238 37858275 37898365 38078390

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 18, 8:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Carter and 18 more67 min
Jun 18, 9:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBath, Boone, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken, Breathitt and 32 more6 hr
Jun 19, 7:07 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooke, Hancock83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.