Mesoscale Discussion 1007

Issued

Jun 19, 2021, 2:10 AM CDT (07:10 UTC)

Expired

Jun 19, 2021, 4:15 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 282...283

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

351 
ACUS11 KWNS 190711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190710 
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-190915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Iowa...Far Northeast Missouri...Central
Illinois...South-central Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...283...

Valid 190710Z - 190915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282, 283
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and hail threat will likely continue across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley for
several more hours as a linear MCS organizes. Weather watch issuance
may be needed downstream across south-central Indiana late tonight.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a east-to-west line of
strong to severe thunderstorms from southeast Iowa into
north-central Illinois. This convection is located to the north of a
quasi-stationary front. The RAP is analyzing a relatively tight
gradient of moderate instability from southeast Iowa
east-southeastward into central Illinois, where MLCAPE is estimated
at 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Regional WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor have
0-6km shear in the 45 to 50 kt range suggesting an organized severe
threat will continue across the region late tonight. High-resolution
models suggest that the line will gradually obtain a
northeast-southwest orientation, which will promote the development
of a cold pool. The development of the cold pool should coincide
with the organization of a linear MCS, which is forecast to move
east-southeastward across central Illinois and south-central Indiana
toward daybreak. Wind-damage will be possible along the leading edge
of this organized line segment.

..Broyles.. 06/19/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38548600 39228871 40069156 40539274 41039276 41289193
            40868902 39648561 38548600

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.