Mesoscale Discussion 589

Issued

May 11, 2021, 4:44 AM CDT (09:44 UTC)

Expired

May 11, 2021, 6:45 AM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

244 
ACUS11 KWNS 110945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110944 
TXZ000-NMZ000-111145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0589
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Areas affected...far southeastern New Mexico and portions of West
Texas and the Texas South Plains region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110944Z - 111145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe storms capable of producing large hail may
occur across portions of the Texas South Plains/Transpecos region
and far southeastern New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a lone, robust storm that has
developed over Lea county in far southeastern New Mexico.  The storm
is occurring within a thermodynamic environment featuring steep
lapse rates/strong elevated CAPE above a surface-based stable layer.
Ascent has increased across this area, as warm advection associated
with a strong south-southeasterly low-level jet is ongoing, ahead of
a subtle, eastward-moving cyclonic disturbance evident on water
vapor imagery just south of El Paso.  

Additional, isolated storm development appears possible, as the
low-level jet persists and this aforementioned disturbance shifts
into/across far West Texas.  Given the abundant, elevated CAPE and
moderate mid-level westerly flow, updraft rotation is supported.  As
such, a few additional storms capable of producing large hail may
evolve over the next couple of hours, but at this time coverage
appears likely to remain limited.  We will monitor evolution, but at
this time, it is expected that the risk will remain sparse enough
not to warrant WW issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30740408 32610357 33510258 33770141 33800042 33079987
            31650037 30840197 30570364 30740408

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.