Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 588

May 10, 20217 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2021, 8:01 PM CDT for 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2021, 8:01 PM CDT (01:01 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2021, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 119 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 162

Counties Atascosa County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Frio County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Medina County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3006 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1131 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.9
Supercell composite: 4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

938 
ACUS11 KWNS 110101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110101 
TXZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Areas affected...South-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162...

Valid 110101Z - 110300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will continue
across parts of south-central Texas over the next few hours. Weather
watch issuance may be needed to the east of WW 162 as the storms
move toward the edge of the watch later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows a cluster of severe
thunderstorms located about 100 statute miles to the southeast of
Del Rio. These storms are moving to the left of the mean wind, which
will take them northeastward along a gradient of strong instability.
The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg extending from
the storms northeastward to the edge of WW 162. RAP forecast
soundings along this corridor early this evening show 0-6 km shear
near 55 kt and have 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7.0 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As the
storms continue to move northeastward, the wind-damage threat could
increase, especially if the cells organize into a short-line segment
across the southern Texas Hill Country.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28239989 28739827 29249836 29749849 30039863 29739928
            28950013 28239989

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 11, 4:44 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crosby, Dawson and 26 more	2 hr
May 11, 10:13 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Callahan and 45 more	62 min
May 11, 1:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dimmit, Kinney, Maverick, Terrell, Val Verde, Zavala	2 hr
May 11, 1:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Burleson, Burnet, Cherokee, Coryell and 18 more	2 hr
May 11, 3:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Angelina, Brazos, Burleson, Cherokee, Freestone and 17 more	4 hr
May 11, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Caldwell and 29 more	10 hr
May 11, 4:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Angelina, Grimes, Hardin, Houston, Jasper, Liberty and 8 more	83 min
May 11, 5:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Hardin, Jasper, Newton, Tyler	4 hr
May 11, 5:23 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bee, Colorado, DeWitt, Goliad, Gonzales and 11 more	2 hr
May 11, 6:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hardin, Jasper, Newton, Polk, Tyler	84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.