Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 230

March 22, 202111 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2021, 4:24 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 22, 2021, 4:24 PM CDT (21:24 UTC)
Expired: Mar 22, 2021, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Bailey County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2018 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

245 
ACUS11 KWNS 222125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222124 
TXZ000-NMZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Areas affected...portions of the Texas South Plains and far
southeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222124Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for downbursts beneath relatively high-based
storms is possible through sunset, though a WW issuance is currently
unanticipated.

DISCUSSION...An area of surface heating beneath a mid-level
disturbance has generated enough atmospheric instability for
lightning-producing convection over the past hour.  An observation
very near this convection indicated a wind gust to 59 knots in
southeastern NM over the past hour, though some of this may be
locally enhanced by a cold front migrating through the region in
addition to nearby convection.  The storms are in a steep-lapse-rate
environment (around 8C/km) with strong deep shear (around 50 knots),
though low-level shear is relatively weak.  The late of low-level
moisture also suggests that nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization
should result in a decreased severe threat as convection becomes
increasingly elevated.  In the near term, a risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and hail will exist.

..Cook/Guyer.. 03/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33860353 34170318 34240231 34250180 34040126 33540097
            33080118 32790196 32830263 33050322 33220353 33420355
            33860353

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 22, 12:01 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 20 more	2 hr
Mar 22, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Childress, Clay, Cottle and 18 more	4 hr
Mar 22, 2:51 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brown, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Crockett and 14 more	2 hr
Mar 22, 5:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Baylor, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Clay and 41 more	65 min
Mar 22, 6:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Collin and 43 more	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021 Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.