Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 231

March 22, 202118 counties in Oklahoma; 47 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2021, 5:25 PM CDT for 18 counties in Oklahoma; 47 counties in Texas. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 22, 2021, 5:25 PM CDT (22:25 UTC)
Expired
Mar 22, 2021, 6:30 PM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 44
All 65 counties

Caddo County, OK, Carter County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Foard County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-03-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-03-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 222 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
820 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
222 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
272 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

900 
ACUS11 KWNS 222225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222225 
OKZ000-TXZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

Areas affected...southwestern Oklahoma through portions of west and
central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 44...

Valid 222225Z - 222330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 44
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 44.  Downstream
watches may be considered across north and/or central Texas and
vicinity over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate a sharpening of convective
bands/linear segments across ongoing portions of WW 44.  Strong to
severe wind gusts have been reported with the linear segment
progressing through southwestern Oklahoma.  The storms are in a
strongly sheared environment, with upscale growth being supported by
ascent from and approaching mid-level wave near the NM/TX border. 
Despite modest destabilization due to only mid/upper 50s F dewpoints
across the warm sector, continued upscale growth of convection is
possible, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts near the
convective segments.  Low-level shear will also increase tonight as
850mb flow increased to around 55 knots.  One or two strongly forced
linear segments across downstream areas of southern Oklahoma and
north/central Texas over the next several hours.  The probability of
a downstream watch being needed is 60%.

..Cook/Guyer.. 03/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   35299968 35579903 35439777 34699682 33479652 32259659
            31509702 30969827 31009936 31259984 31579995 32320016
            33060001 33649985 34509986 34909985 35299968

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 22, 2:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCComanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa and 1 more4 hr
Mar 22, 12:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 20 more2 hr
Mar 22, 2:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Crockett and 14 more2 hr
Mar 22, 4:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Cochran, Crosby, Garza, Hale, Hockley and 5 more66 min
Mar 22, 6:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Collin and 43 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.