Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 229
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2021, 2:51 PM CDT for 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 22, 2021, 2:51 PM CDT (19:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 22, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
Counties Brown County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Irion County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Tom Green County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2018 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 67 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 60 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
303
ACUS11 KWNS 221951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221951
TXZ000-222215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
Areas affected...Southwest TX/Edwards Plateau
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 221951Z - 222215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon into this evening. Hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary threats and trends are being monitored for possible
watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over the central
TX South Plains (northwest of BGS) with a dryline extending
southwestward from this low into the TX Big Bend area. A arcing band
of deeper convection notable on radar and satellite preceding this
dryline. This band is likely associated with the leading edge of
stronger ascent tied to the shortwave trough pushing across the
southern High Plains.
Additional thunderstorms appear possible both along this area of
lift as well as farther back along the dryline, particularly if
clearing can be maintained in the wake of the leading ascent.
Relatively cool temperatures will temper overall buoyancy. However,
very strong vertical shear will likely compensate for this limited
buoyancy, with organized line segments and/or a supercell or two
possible. Hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats and
trends will be monitored possible watch issuance.
..Mosier/Hart.. 03/22/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 31340177 31960126 32300029 32159847 30699871 30130092
30090185 30310242 31340177SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 12:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Borden, Briscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle and 20 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 22, 2:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Childress, Clay, Cottle and 18 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 22, 4:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Garza, Hale, Hockley and 5 more | 66 min |
| Mar 22, 5:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Clay and 41 more | 65 min |
| Mar 22, 6:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Collin and 43 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.