Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 227
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 22, 2021, 12:01 PM CDT for 26 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 22, 2021, 12:01 PM CDT (17:01 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 22, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 26 counties
Armstrong County, TX, Borden County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Motley County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 127 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1493 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
627
ACUS11 KWNS 221701
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221701
OKZ000-TXZ000-221930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
Areas affected...South/Southeast TX Panhandle...TX South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 221701Z - 221930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually increase over the next few hours. Some of these storms may
become strong enough to produce large hail and/or damaging wind
gusts. A watch may eventually become needed to address this severe
potential.
DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough
continues to increase across the southern High Plains. Modestly
increasing low-level moisture and filtered diurnal heating are also
occurring over portions of the Permian Basin/TX South Plains. This
modest increase in low-level moisture and surface temperatures
coupled with the cold mid-level temperatures already in place is
contributing to modest instability and the presence of a few deeper
convective cores.
Recent surface observations place the surface low preceding the
shortwave trough over near HOB (in southwest NM). Visible satellite
imagery reveals a more coherent band of altocumulus from very near
HOB to just east of PEQ, demarcating the dryline well. Northeastward
progress of this low and coinciding eastward/northeastward push of
the dryline is expectation to result in a gradually increase of
storm coverage and intensity over the next several hours. Large hail
and/or damaging wind gusts are possible within the stronger storms.
..Mosier/Hart.. 03/22/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34130230 35190164 35540084 35089997 32330034 32350264
34130230SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Callahan, Childress, Clay, Cottle and 18 more | 4 hr |
| Mar 22, 2:51 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho, Crockett and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 22, 4:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Cochran, Crosby, Garza, Hale, Hockley and 5 more | 66 min |
| Mar 22, 5:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Clay and 41 more | 65 min |
| Mar 22, 6:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Collin and 43 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.