Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1993
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 10, 2021, 7:54 PM CST for 13 counties in Arkansas; 16 counties in Missouri; Latimer County, LeFlore County, Sequoyah County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 10, 2021, 7:54 PM CST (01:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 10, 2021, 10:00 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 553...556
All 32 counties
Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Christian County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 637 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1113 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 80 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 344 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 300 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.2
- Supercell composite
- 8.4
The text
As transmitted.
070
ACUS11 KWNS 110154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110154
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021
Areas affected...portions of southwest Missouri into northwest
Arkansas and extreme eastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 553...556...
Valid 110154Z - 110400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 553, 556 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 553 and
556. Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the main threats,
though a couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger, more
sustained supercellular storms.
DISCUSSION...Another line of semi-discrete thunderstorms have
recently developed across the western fringe of the warm sector,
within Tornado Watches 533 and 556. Surface temperatures exceeding
70F, with low 60s F dewpoints overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level
lapse rates (per latest mesoanalysis) are contributing to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE, suggesting that strong to severe storms will continue
across the Watch areas for at least a few more hours. All severe
hazards have recently been observed with some of the stronger
storms. While a strong LLJ is contributing to significant low-level
speed shear (with 200-300 0-1 km and effective SRH noted by the
latest SRX and SGF VWPs), these VWPs also show decreasing hodograph
curvature, potentially limiting the tornado threat to a degree.
Nonetheless, large hail and damaging gusts are still expected to
continue, and a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the
overall magnitudes of the low-level shear.
..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 34789539 36659383 37859311 38129255 38209151 37889120
37279155 36319236 35859270 35499310 34999378 34749419
34789539SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 6:22 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craighead, Greene, Jackson, Mississippi, Poinsett | 53 min |
| Dec 10, 6:34 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 2 more | 4 hr |
| Dec 10, 6:37 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 10 more | 83 min |
| Dec 10, 6:51 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Dec 10, 7:34 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner, Garland, Grant and 16 more | 86 min |
| Dec 10, 9:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Clark, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 10, 10:00 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Columbia, Desha and 5 more | 90 min |
| Dec 10, 10:09 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 17 more | 96 min |
| Dec 10, 10:44 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 16 more | 6 hr |
| Dec 11, 2:00 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Desha and 4 more | 90 min |
| Dec 10, 7:02 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callaway, Crawford, Dent, Franklin, Gasconade, Iron and 16 more | 58 min |
| Dec 10, 7:41 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dunklin, Pemiscot | 64 min |
| Dec 10, 11:03 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, Perry, Scott | 5 hr |
| Dec 10, 11:28 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.