Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1991

December 10, 202122 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Dec 10, 2021, 7:34 PM CST for 22 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 10, 2021, 7:34 PM CST (01:34 UTC)
Expired
Dec 10, 2021, 9:00 PM CST
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 552...555
All 22 counties

Clark County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Little River County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1725 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2021-12-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 398 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1725 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
759 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
398 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
420 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
4.8
Supercell composite
16.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

320 
ACUS11 KWNS 110135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110134 
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-OKZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest into central and eastern
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 552...555...

Valid 110134Z - 110300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552, 555 continues.

SUMMARY...An uptick in the severe threat, including strong
tornadoes, appears evident across southwest into east-central
Arkansas. The locally higher tornado threat may persist with the
more dominant supercells for at least a few hours.

DISCUSSION...Multiple storms, including sustained supercells, have
recently organized across portions of central and eastern Arkansas,
with a discrete supercell also entering far southwest Arkansas. MRMS
mosaic radar shows intense low-level rotation tracks associated with
the more dominant supercells just north of LZK, and these storms are
expected to progress across a moist, unstable/minimally capped
environment. The latest VWPs from SHV to NQA depict long, curved
hodographs given the presence of a broad, intense LLJ overspreading
the area. These VWPs and 01Z mesoanalysis depict 0-1 km and
effective SRH in the 250-400 m2/s2 range, supporting the risk for
sustained, strong tornadoes across southwest into eastern AR for at
least the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 12/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33749450 35059249 35699171 35869092 35799038 35659020
            35259013 34829031 34489129 34009274 33589421 33749450

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 10, 6:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCraighead, Greene, Jackson, Mississippi, Poinsett53 min
Dec 10, 6:34 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 2 more4 hr
Dec 10, 6:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 10 more83 min
Dec 10, 6:51 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 10 more4 hr
Dec 10, 7:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson, Logan and 7 more2 hr
Dec 10, 9:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Cleveland, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross and 13 more2 hr
Dec 10, 10:00 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Columbia, Desha and 5 more90 min
Dec 10, 10:09 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 17 more96 min
Dec 10, 10:44 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 16 more6 hr
Dec 11, 2:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Desha and 4 more90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.