Mesoscale Discussion 1924

Issued

Oct 28, 2021, 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC)

Expired

Oct 28, 2021, 5:45 PM EDT

In force

94 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 545

Counties Brevard County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Osceola County, FL

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

525 
ACUS11 KWNS 282012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282011 
FLZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Areas affected...central through south Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...

Valid 282011Z - 282145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to damaging wind gusts and a
couple of tornadoes will persist over central and south central FL
through about 23Z. An additional WW across south FL appears unlikely
at this time.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms including a few small
supercells continues moving east southeast through south central FL.
The VWP data from Melbourne show strong 0-6 km shear, but modest
low-level hodographs due to the unidirectional nature of the winds
in the 0-2 km layer. The atmosphere remains moderately unstable with
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE but with weak mid-level lapse rates. This
environment will continue to support some bowing and supercell
structures with isolated damaging wind and a couple of brief
tornadoes possible. 

Farther south across south FL, vertical shear is weaker and is not
expected to undergo a more substantial increase until mid-evening
when the boundary layer will be less unstable. While a limited
severe threat cannot be ruled out across south FL, overall threat
does not appear sufficient to warrant an additional WW in the near
term.

..Dial.. 10/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26918225 27458184 28138128 28908080 28538025 27158049
            26348173 26918225

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.