Mesoscale Discussion 1922

Issued

Oct 28, 2021, 11:51 AM EDT (15:51 UTC)

Expired

Oct 28, 2021, 1:45 PM EDT

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 545

Counties Charlotte County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lake County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

438 
ACUS11 KWNS 281551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281551 
FLZ000-281745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1922
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Thu Oct 28 2021

Areas affected...northern through central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...

Valid 281551Z - 281745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes will persist into the afternoon across northern through
central Florida.

DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal line of storms extends from near
Jacksonville Fl southwest to northwest of the Tampa Bay area. The
boundary layer is undergoing destabilization south of a warm front
that extends from northern FL southeast to off the eastern FL coast
with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Potential still exists for a few
discrete storms/supercells to develop ahead of the line, but primary
severe threat will probably occur as the line moves east through the
Peninsula. VWP data show 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 150-200
m2/s2, but some veering of the low-level winds may occur with time,
suggesting hodograph size will remain modest. Nevertheless,
effective bulk shear from 35-40 kt will support some organized
structures embedded within the line, maintaining a threat for
isolated damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes into the afternoon.

..Dial.. 10/28/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27648274 29098236 29878207 29928144 29118101 28508116
            26628123 26778230 27648274

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.