Alert archive / Maryland / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1669

September 1, 202115 counties in Maryland; 7 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 1, 2021, 1:32 PM EDT for 15 counties in Maryland; 7 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 1, 2021, 1:32 PM EDT (17:32 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2021, 3:30 PM EDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 482...483
All 22 counties

Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, Essex County, VA, King George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 67 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 558 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
558 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
223 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

702 
ACUS11 KWNS 011733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011732 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-011930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

Areas affected...northeast Virginia into central and eastern
Maryland

Concerning...Tornado Watch 482...483...

Valid 011732Z - 011930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482, 483 continues.

SUMMARY...A relative maximum in tornado risk currently stretches
from northeast Virginia into central and eastern Maryland.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed within a line south
of the D.C. area, with notable rotation on radar. The moist and
warming air mass has lead to 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE, including a
favorable amount of low-level CAPE as 700 mb temperatures remain
tempered.

The 16Z special sounding from IAD shows an impressive low-level
hodograph structure, with observed storm motions resulting in 280
m2/s2 0-1 SRH. As such, it appears RAP-based objective analysis is
underestimating the shear.

The environment east/northeast of the ongoing cells remains
favorable for a supercell tornado threat, bounded on the north by
the stationary front.

..Jewell.. 09/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39747586 39237587 38557604 38147626 37887676 37867701
            37977722 38387718 38757720 39277750 39567724 39777654
            39827618 39747586

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 1, 12:19 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Montgomery, Prince George's86 min
Sep 1, 12:56 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Charles, Frederick, Harford and 4 more6 hr
Sep 1, 4:01 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Harford, Howard and 4 more119 min
Sep 1, 11:03 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 14 more2 hr
Sep 1, 11:46 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Charles and 11 more9 hr
Sep 1, 12:40 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCaroline, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot9 hr
Sep 1, 3:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Harford, Kent, Queen Anne's and 2 more3 hr
Aug 31, 11:01 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbemarle, Amherst, Augusta, Bath, Botetourt, Culpeper and 15 more89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.