Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1665

August 31, 202121 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Aug 31, 2021, 11:01 PM EDT for 21 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2021, 11:01 PM EDT (03:01 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2021, 12:30 AM EDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 480
All 21 counties

Albemarle County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Greene County, VA, Madison County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 319 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
319 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-23 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
782 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

610 
ACUS11 KWNS 010302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010301 
VAZ000-010430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

Areas affected...portions of western VA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 480...

Valid 010301Z - 010430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for brief tornadoes continues across Tornado
Watch 480.

DISCUSSION...Several cells near Rockbridge to Albemarle counties in
western/central VA have intensified over the past hour or so. These
cells continue to exhibit periods of weak low-level rotation as they
shift north/northeast. This activity is occurring in the vicinity of
a surface boundary draped across the region and within a corridor of
stronger low-level instability (0-3 km MLCAPE around 100-125 m2/s2).
Low-level shear is somewhat less favorable with northeast extent
compared to earlier this evening, but still sufficient to support
rotating cells capable of brief tornadoes.

..Leitman.. 09/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37997799 37647840 37437884 37367933 37407970 37617989
            37987986 38277956 38557894 38697835 38587796 38347787
            37997799

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 1, 12:19 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, King George, Loudoun and 8 more86 min
Sep 1, 12:56 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCArlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Stafford and 6 more6 hr
Sep 1, 11:03 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAccomack, Arlington, Caroline, Charles City, Clarke, Culpeper and 32 more2 hr
Sep 1, 11:46 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAccomack, Amelia, Arlington, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield and 57 more9 hr
Sep 1, 1:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Essex, King George, Richmond, Westmoreland, City of Alexandria and 1 more118 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.